Russell hovering near steady on tug of war after data

Small-cap stocks opened lower, pulled down when a fresh batch of economic reports failed to generate any upside surprises. The decline was short-lived, though, as prices pushed slightly into the green within 15 minutes of the opening. A small tug of war between those disappointed by the morning reports and those upbeat by an overnight drop in crude oil and rising retailer shares seemed to be underway. At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 0.67, or 0.09%, at 739.12.

Economic data on weekly claims and GDP came out before the opening today and while neither report was strikingly bad, they also didn’t carry any bullish news to sustain a mild overnight rise in stocks. The weekly claims report attracted the most attention because the number came in above the forecast at 372,000 versus 370,000 claims, and last week’s figure was revised upward by 3,000 to 368,000. The GDP report hit the median forecast for a rise to 0.9%, but didn’t carry the same kind of power it did last month when a mild rise in GDP was cause for celebration for stocks.

“The bottom line is that economic growth remained very weak at the beginning of the year. These data are ancient history, as Q2 is nearly two-thirds over. Data released so far for April and May suggest that Q2 growth will also be very soft and perhaps even negative. There is still a definite risk for an outright contraction in Q2,” Steven Wood, chief economist with Insight Economics, said in an email.

As for the weekly claims report, Wood said that the four-week moving average is settling in near 370,000, up about 45,000 than the average last year. He said that continuing claims, which are inversely related to job creation, jumped this week and have been rising steadily for almost two years, which suggests that hiring has weakened. The claims data take on a little extra punch this week because next Friday serves up the monthly employment report, and today’s data indicates another . . .

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