Firm techs, M&A deals duel weak economic data

Small-cap stocks mounted a valiant comeback push after sinking 1% shortly after the opening, as tech stocks pushed higher, Chicago PMI beat the forecast and merger deals helped offset gloom tied to terrible weekly unemployment claims. At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 3.25, or 0.45%, at 715.62. The tech-laden Nasdaq 100 was up 0.3%.

The weekly claims number came in at 448,000, far beyond the median forecast of 395,000, and a big jump from last week’s 404,000 number. How bad was this number? It was the single largest weekly claims figure in more than five years. Even though this survey was taken after the numbers were collected for Friday’s monthly employment release, it certainly won’t raise investor confidence about the labor market ahead of that release. It also will call into question some of the rise powered by Wednesday’s ADP employment report. The claims numbers were boosted by an emergency unemployment program, but even allowing for some data quirks, it’s a sobering report that does not paint a rosy picture of the labor market right now.

Most people came in to today’s session expecting the GDP report to claim top billing on the data slate, but economic growth was clearly upstaged by the weekly unemployment report. As for GDP, it was also a disappointment, as the headline figure came in at 1.9%, below the forecast of 2.0%. In addition, fourth quarter GDP was revised downward to minus 0.2%, the first decline in quarterly GDP since 2001.

Before the numbers came out, the stock market was higher in overnight trading, but the claims report sparked an abrupt 11-handle slide in S&P 500 futures, and triggered a big slide in the U.S. dollar and in Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was down more than 2% into the stock market open, which suggested money flow away from equities toward safe-haven products. The dollar was down more than 100 basis points against the euro, slipping 0.7% after the . . .

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