Progress on Paulson plan overshadows awful econ data

Small-cap stocks pushed higher Thursday, bolstered by reports that the $700-billion financial market rescue plan appears ready for approval through government channels. Optimism that quick passage of a rescue deal could free up clogged credit lines and spur economic recovery helped investors look right past a spate of dreadful economic reports that came out today. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed up 7.97, or 1.14%, at 705.74. The Russell is now down 7.8% for the year, compared with a loss of 16.9% for the Dow and 17.6% for the S&P 500.

Right now, the market appears to be of a one-track mind, with the immediate hopes rising and falling with the momentum of the Paulson Plan. This afternoon, key Senators said that the plan was progressing nicely, with Senator Chris Dodd, who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, saying that a “fundamental agreement” was in place. Meanwhile, Bob Bennett, a Republican senator from Utah, said “I expect we will have a plan that can pass the House, pass the Senate, be signed by the President and bring a sense of certainty to this crisis that is still roiling in the market.”

“Certainty” or the lack thereof clearly is the key. When it appeared Wednesday that political wrangling in an election year over rescue plan details could stall progress on a quick passage, the market made no bones about recoiling from those concerns. Conversely, when the stock market rallied today on hopes the bill could fly through the lawmaking process, investors made another statement by buying up stocks even in the face of slumping economic reports.

Speaking of those economic numbers, the market received bearish data on durable goods, a bearish surprise on weekly claims and yet another bearish report on new home sales. Usually, two out of three would be really bad for this trio, but with all the attention focused on the rescue plan, the market skated right by this terrible trifecta seemingly without worry. For the record, durable goods came in at minus 4.5%, well below the forecast for a dip of 1.9% (and last month was revised downward as well). Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims shot to 493,000, compared with the consensus forecast of 450,000. Even if the report was “goosed” by . . .

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