Mild opening dip on techs, overseas losses, dreadful jobs data

Small-cap stocks are expected to open slightly lower, with tech stocks pacing the early declines following a sales warning overnight from Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC). Stock markets around the world were in retreat mode overnight, especially emerging market countries, which could also weigh on U.S. stocks early this morning. The somber tone on the economy continues to resonate after weekly unemployment claims reached a seven-year peak this morning. On a positive note, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) slightly beat the profit forecast, which provided a brief modest upside push to stock index futures this morning ahead of the claims release. Stock index futures were off about 0.3% ahead of the opening, which would suggest a Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) open near 451.

The weekly unemployment claims report came in at a jolting 516,000, well ahead of the forecast for 480,000 and at the highest point since September 2001. Despite the dreadful news on claims, the market was basically unchanged immediately after the numbers.

Overseas markets took a hit overnight, with a global stock index down some 3% following the big 6% slide in American small caps Wednesday. Emerging markets continue to reel, with Russian stocks off some 8% after re-opening for trading following a two-day halt. Stock markets were shut down in Kuwait until Nov. 17 in an effort to stem the selling tide. Emerging markets in Poland were off 4%, Bulgaria was down 5% and Indonesia was down 5%. Russia is the second largest oil producer on the planet and their stock market has been sinking in concert with slumping crude oil prices, which extended the rout overnight to fresh 22-month lows before stabilizing. Crude prices were up about $0.40 a barrel ahead of the U.S. stock market open.

While the Intel sales caution sent a shiver through tech stocks, there were some pockets of positive profit news this morning. Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq:AMAT) topped the forecast and rose 5% in extended trading after the close Wednesday; NetApp Inc. (Nadsaq:NTAP) was up about 3% in after-hours trading on an earnings boost. Other notably earnings on the docket today include Kohls Corp. (NYSE:KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN) and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE:DPS).

After the relentless pullback Wednesday, short-term momentum readings are oversold, which could provide some underlying support to the market, or at least slow down the rate of declines. If the market slips through 450 support early on, then the next critical point to watch is at 442, which marked the bear market bottom in October.

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