China Stocks

Downturn continues to plague China

Shannon Roxborough | Oct 09, 2008 06:20am EDT | Comment
Rating: Unrated

News of the successful passage of the bailout plan notwithstanding, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged as much as 800 points Monday, setting yet another new record for a single-day point drop and dragging the index below the key psychological level of 10,000 for the first time since 2004. All other major indexes followed suit, dropping 7% or more, and falling U.S. markets sent global stocks spiraling, as European and Asian investors scurried to the relative safety of other investment vehicles.

The ongoing downturn continues to be a thorn in the side of the Chinese economy, which grew 10.1% in the second quarter, the fourth straight quarter that growth has slowed. Swiss bank UBS projects China's economy will grow a total of 9.6% this year, down from 11.9% in 2007. Slower economic growth and the global credit crunch are battering export markets and softening demand for real estate, which makes up 10% of China's gross domestic product.

The Chinese property market has fallen on hard times, with sales volumes and prices dropping precipitously since early this year. The Chinese government, which last month slashed interest rates to help counter the slump, could make a number of other moves to further prop up the sagging marketing. These moves could include further lowering interest rates, reducing down-payment requirements, lowering or eliminating land appreciation taxes and allowing home buyers to deduct mortgage payments against their personal income tax.

Bear in mind that while China's growth is slowing, its government still has a budget surplus and about $1.8 trillion in reserves with little public debt. If worse comes to worse on this side of the pond, say experts at TD Securities, a U.S. depression wouldn't necessarily spell economic disaster for China, since only 7% . . .

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Shannon Roxborough

About the Author
Shannon Roxborough previously worked as a global risk analyst, and lived in China for nearly two years.