Sector Watch: Drilling services stocks
You hear that? It’s a collective moan heard from drivers across the country, after oil hit another record high of $129 on Tuesday, no doubt translating to yet another price hike at the pump.
Oil prices are expected to remain at high levels for the foreseeable future; some experts are even predicting $150 per barrel oil before year-end. While recording-setting oil prices are disgruntling to many, they are supporting strong exploration trends and feeding nicely into the demand for the tools and services of Bolt Technology (Nasdaq:BOLT) and WSP Holdings (NYSE:WH).
Bolt Technology develops, manufactures and markets marine seismic tools such as air guns and hydrophones used to locate energy reservoirs on the ocean’s floor. The company also operates an industrial products segment that develops, manufactures and sells miniature industrial clutches, brakes and sub-fractional horsepower electric motors.
Bolt Technology should benefit from an 11% increase in worldwide exploration spending forecasted to reach $369 billion in 2008. Deepwater spending will be a major growth area, with 85% of over 200 oil and gas exploration and production companies surveyed indicating a heightened focus on deepwater drilling in 2008. These companies also identified 3-D/4-D seismic as the most important technology influencing their E&P business.
Bolt Technology derives approximately 90% of revenues from sales of marine seismic tools. Drillers use the company’s marine air guns to create acoustic waves that travel to great depths in the earth. Portions of the wave, reflected back by the underlying rock layers, are received as signals by hydrophone devices. Using these tools, drillers can identify formations likely to contain oil. A seismic exploration vessel can tow as many as 60 to 70 air guns along with multiple hydrophone streamers. The air guns are fired simultaneously every 75 feet to 150 feet along the survey line. Bolt Technology’s air guns range in price from $10,000 to $20,000, but the majority are sold in the $12,000 range.
In July 2007, Bolt Technology acquired Real Time Systems (RTS), a manufacturer of controllers and synchronizers for air guns. RTS products are designed to control and synchronize up to 96 air guns on a single seismic exploration vessel. RTS also manufactures and sells marine cables and connectors designed for use with air guns, bulkhead connectors and other underwater connectors required for compiling seismic data.
During the first nine months of fiscal 2008, Bolt Technology’s revenues grew 41% year over year to $49.4 million, from $35 million, and net income improved 45% year over year to $10.5 million, or $1.22 per share, from $7.2 million, or $0.85 per share. Real Time Systems contributed over 15% of nine-month earnings. Analysts expect Bolt Technology to produce 33% growth this year, and I look for longer-term growth exceeding 18% annually. My $25 price target for Bolt Technology is 29% above Tuesday’s closing price of $19.41. Shares have ranged between $14.67 and $39.59 over the last 52 weeks.
Newly public WSP Holdings is one of China’s leading manufacturers of seamless casing, tubing and drill pipe used in oil and gas drilling. The company manufactures both American Petroleum Institute (API) standard seamless tubular products and customized non-API products demanding more technology and intensive manufacturing. WSP manufactures and distributes over 400 types of API and non-API products.
The global market for seamless tubular products is forecast to grow to $20.2 billion in 2010 from $14.5 billion in 1997. Approximately 25% of the market consists of non-API products. Overall spending on drilling products, excluding drilling rigs, is forecast to rise more than 4% annually through 2012 with most of the gain representing increased sales of tubular goods, drill bits and down-hole tools.
WSP Holdings plans to increase profitability by boosting sales of its higher-margin non-API product. In 2007, the company’s non-API product volume grew three-fold to 93,467 tons from 22,910 tons. As a percent of revenues, non-API products rose to 31.5% in 2007, from 11.3% in the prior year. Already in 2008, the company has secured sizable new orders for non-API product from two Chinese companies and is supplying a PetroChina subsidiary with non-API product for field tests involving three wells. WPS Holdings is also increasing profits by boosting export sales. Exports accounted for 58% of revenues in 2007, up from 51% in 2006. The company has customers in North America, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Russia and Australia.
During 2007, WSP Holdings’ revenues increased 32% year over year to $483.8 million, from $366.5 million, and net income climbed 27% year over year to $74.6 million from $58.9 million. Per share earnings rose 20% year over year to $0.97 from $0.81.The company targets 2008 revenues in a $600 million to $700 million range and net income in an $80 million to $95 million range. Analysts anticipate 28% growth for WSP Holdings this year. These shares appear very reasonably priced at an 8 times P/E multiple. My $10 price target for WSP Holdings suggests a 30% premium compared with Tuesday’s closing price of $7.69. Over the last 52 weeks, shares have ranged between $3.75 and $9.50.
For more information on either company, see Check on China: WSP Holdings, Ltd. and Bolt Technology: Top Gun.