Small caps poised to set wider losses into last trading hour
Small caps continue to gyrate as realities and consequences of the financial crisis continue to grip traders. At 2:30 p.m. ET the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) continued its slide, giving up 5%, or 25 points, to 474.14.
“I’m concerned that players are going to have worries over whether or not they’re going to be closing global stock markets on Monday,” said Andy Busch, global foreign exchange strategist for BMO Capital Markets. “Even though the U.S. has typically said that they’re not going to interfere and I don’t expect the U.S. to do it, there may be some selling right now as we get into the close over that. Indonesia closed their stock markets today for a third day in a row.”
Busch also said that losses from the Lehman’s CDS swaps have further exacerbated the credit crunch as financial entities are attempting to increase capital and pay for those losses. “So as the credit markets remain frozen, going into the close I imagine it will be pretty soft. I’m not sure if we’ll see 400 points like we saw yesterday, but the potential is there for it.”
President Bush addressed the nation this morning in an effort to calm markets, saying “we can solve this crisis and we will.” He said the government’s plans should work to shore up the financial system, but that it would take time to be implemented and for the effects to become visible.
The administration is weighing whether to guarantee bank debt and temporarily insure all U.S. bank deposits. Lending between banks remains frozen, with rates moving higher despite global rate cuts this week. Until these clogged credit lines open up, it will be difficult for the stock market to embrace a recovery frame of mind.
“They continue to throw everything in the kitchen sink at this until they can get the gears of the capital markets to connect,” said Busch. “We need to see the TED spread come in and we need to see Libor-OIS spreads come in. Basically what we’re looking for are people willing to lend their money longer than overnight and for collateral other than treasuries and none of those things have happened. Those are the key indicators.”
The G7 meeting will take place this weekend, as countries around the world attempt to make a coordinated effort to ease the global credit crunch and its reverberations through equity markets. On the table for discussion is a proposed plan by the U.K., originally reported by the Wall Street Journal this morning, in which Britain’s government would guarantee up to $432 billion in bank debt maturing up to 36 months. The G7 is supposed to discuss applying this plan in countries around the globe to shore up the domino affects of the credit crisis, which have caused global equity markets to free fall, banks to shutter and companies and consumers to struggle....
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