Today's Trading

Small caps dip with soft financials, commodities

Kevin Pendley | Dec 09, 2008 10:20am EST | Comment
Rating: Unrated

Small-cap stocks pushed lower on the open, weighed down by slumping financial shares and a pause in the commodities run that helped power Monday’s rally. At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 6.04, or 1.25%, at 475.34.

The pending home sales report showed a decline of 0.7% in October. Earlier this morning, the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was down 0.8% for the week on a year-over-year basis and is off 0.4% for December so far versus November.

Today’s pullback in the stock market comes as a logical “breather” following an impressive two-day run that lifted equities to four-week highs. There is some sense among insiders that Monday’s big rally was essentially the news coming out that allowed a “bad news” rally on Friday’s employment report. From that perspective, it would mean that the market now needs fresh bullish impetus to sustain the rise, and unfortunately most of the early headlines today are tilted to the bearish side of things.

Coming into the session, technology shares were supposed to be a sore spot for the market. Looking at the tech arena, the big stories come from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN) and Japan’s Sony Corp. Chipmaker TXN put forward a gloomy outlook, as did National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE:NSM), but TXN shares were actually up 2.9% and NSM was up 2% shortly after the open. As for Sony, the maker of PlayStation and a bevy of electronics products said it would rollout some 16,000 job cuts, which is a massive tally for the Japanese market. Despite the worrisome news on the tech front, financial shares were the primary bearish influence on early action in stocks, with the PHLX KBW Banking Index down about 3%.

Crude oil prices slipped about $0.40 a barrel on the stock market open, which could keep energy stocks at bay today. Industrial metals were sinking fast overseas, with copper down some 6% in London trading, which is a worry since copper is considered a key barometer of economic activity. It should also be noted that the U.S. dollar was up about 0.9% against the euro, which tends to weigh on commodities.

The market will be closely watching updates on the bailout package being debated in Washington for automakers. Although most anticipate a deal will come together quickly, there are some worries that Republican lawmakers could stall the deal. Right now, expectations are that a $15 billion bridge loan package will be issued to stave off any bankruptcy fears from General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) that could create a wave of woes throughout the auto industry and into the broad economy as well. Shortly after the open, GM was down 5.4%, while Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) was down 7.6%.

Individual small caps on the move early today include Analogic Corp. (Nasdaq:ALOG), which gapped lower and shed 19% maker of health and security imaging equipment announced earnings. Learning Tree International Inc. (Nasdaq:LTRE) also gapped downward and lost 21% as the education vendor also took an earnings-related lump. Con-Way Inc. (NYSE:CNW) slumped 16% as the freight transport company revised guidance lower. Cherokee Inc. (Nasdaq:CHKE) slipped 10% as the brand management company corrected lower from big gains the previous two sessions.

With the market on the defensive early on today, it will be interesting to see if the Russell can hold above 473, which marked the Black Friday peak and was the upside defining range of last week’s action. If today’s pullback can hold above that point, it would support the bullish side of things. If that point is cracked, then look for support around 464, then at 452.50. On the upside, the critical point is at 491. If the market can set aside this morning’s concerns and resume the rally, then a push through 491 would snap the bearish behavior cycle of setting lower lows and lower highs.

Kevin Pendley

About the Author
Kevin Pendley covers the Russell 2000 index for SmallCapInvestor.com and writes a weekly technical analysis column.