Small Caps SUMT and LGCY Buck Downward Trend

Stocks are trading lower today as fearful investors brace themselves in anticipation of poor earnings reports that will begin being released this week.

At 1:40 pm ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is down 14.55, or 3.19%, at 441.58, while the Dow is down 1.75% at 7,877.09 and the S&P 500 is down 2.09% at 824.93.

Small caps bucking the trend today include SumTotal Systems (Nasdaq:SUMT), up 47% after receiving a buyout offer. Legacy Reserves (Nasdaq:LGCY) is also climbing 29% today after receiving a proposal from Apollo Management to acquire all outstanding units of the company at a cash purchase price of $14 per unit.

******Time flies. Seems like earnings season just ended and yet here we are again. But first-quarter earnings kick off tomorrow with Alcoa (NYSE:AA).

Given how far the stock market has come over the last three weeks, you might think stock prices are set up for a fall as the reality of earnings dashes the enthusiasm that economic recovery is at hand.

Earnings will be bad. S&P 500 companies are expected to report that earnings are down around 35% from the year-ago quarter. And earnings were already falling then.

But don’t forget, stocks have been rallying because investors are anticipating an economic recovery. Though there have been some subtle signs that the economy is starting to improve, it hasn’t happened yet. In other words, nobody expects Q1 earnings to be good.

This earnings season is going to be all about guidance. What do companies see in the future? Will they be willing to say things look better? And more importantly, will any optimism be reflected in revenues and earnings forecasts?

That’s what investors will be focused on. I’d say it’s an “even money bet” whether stocks are higher or lower when earnings season wraps up a few weeks . . .

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