Modest rise despite crude recovery
Small-cap stocks weathered several storms today to punch out a higher close as investors were able to look past a sudden reversal higher in crude oil futures, renewed credit crunch worries amid a collapse in mortgage finance stocks and safe-haven money flow into short-dated treasury products. Oversold conditions and bargain hunting spurred by merger activity were enough to pull small-cap stocks into the green. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) rose 6.68, or 1.01%, to 670.44.
Heading through midday trading, the market tried to carve out a modest recovery rally in the wake of Wednesday’s big collapse, but a sudden afternoon surge in crude oil prices stomped out bullish sentiment in equities — at least for a while. Crude oil prices charged more than $5 a barrel higher, climbing back above $141 on supply concerns out of Africa and Brazil and amid ongoing tension in the Middle East.
Workers in Brazil threatened to initiate a five-day strike next week, while a ceasefire in Nigeria threatened supply from Africa. Meanwhile, Iran said it has been test-firing more missiles, as a “lesson for enemies;” U.S. officials warned Iran that it would defend its allies. The potential for supply disruption and geopolitical tension was enough to spark the sudden resurgence in crude oil prices, which had tumbled some $10 a barrel off recent record highs.
S&P 500 futures actually made their daily high this morning before the regular market even opened, rising to highs in conjunction with a better-than-expected headline figure on the weekly jobless claims report. The report showed a decline in claims to 346,000 which was much better than the 395,000 forecast and a big improvement on last week’s 404,000 figure. However, there were some “devils in the details” of the data, which hinted that all is not well in the labor market.
“Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 91,000 to 3.202 million. The insured unemployment rate moved up to 2.4% from 2.3% in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate has held at 2.4% in three out of the last five weeks. The noticeable decline in initial claims is a distortion and is not an indicator of a market improvement in labor market conditions,” Asha Bangalore, economist . . .
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