Great Northern Iron Ore Properties: Mining dependable cash flows

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Investors are often blinded by growth, forgetting that intrinsic value is determined by the present value of future cash flows. Some investors consider EBIDTA a reasonable proxy for cash flow, others consider cash flow from operations, and some just use earnings. But why use a proxy, when you can use dividends? After all, your cash flow, not the company's, is what matters.

We think we've found a reliable dividend source in Great Northern Iron Ore Properties (NYSE:GNI), a non-voting trust that owns interests in both mineral and non-mineral lands on the Mesabi Iron Range in northeastern Minnesota.

Great Northern pays virtually all its net income as dividends, a requisite practice among publicly traded trusts. The income is derived form royalties on taconite — an iron-bearing, high-silica flint-like rock that's ground into a fine powder so that the iron ore can be separated by strong magnets. 

Great Northern's royalty income depends on the number of tons of taconite shipped from its properties by its lessees, which include some of the sector's biggest movers and shakers: United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), Arcelor-Mittal (NYSE:MT), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) and Essar Steel Holdings.

Great Northern is about as pure as a commodity play gets in the steel sector. The company undertakes no value-adding activities and is wholly dependent on the fortunes of its steel-producing customers and their demand for iron ore.

And those fortunes have been in a secular upswing. According to the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), world crude steel output reached 1,343.5 million metric tons in 2007, a 7.5% increase over 2006, marking the fifth consecutive . . .

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