SeaChange International: In case you forget
Television and cable systems are undergoing a revolution, as the old concept of sending out a signal to whoever’s watching at any given moment falls by the wayside.
Consumers can set a DVR to catch the shows they want to watch later, or they can use on-demand technology that utilizes systems such as those from SeaChange International (Nasdaq:SEAC).
Any parent who has had to deal with a screaming kid because of a missed “SpongeBob SquarePants” episode can appreciate on-demand video now provided by many cable or satellite companies, usually in an upgraded service package.
The Internet, with its growing cache of always-available content, is a threat to broadcasting, and to survive the shows must be available when consumers want them. While decades-old DVR technology is a cheap alternative to pricey cable add-ons, on-demand content eliminates one variable that trips up viewers: forgetting to set the dang timer.
SeaChange International, which got its start in 1993 in digital advertising, develops and sells the fail-safe hardware, software services and equipment needed to generate revenue and retain the eyeballs of viewers. After churning up two turbulent years of losses, SeaChange appears to have sailed into the calmer waters of profitability.
Of six analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, four have SeaChange at “strong buy,” one has it a “buy” and the other has it at “hold.” The median long-range price target is $10.75, or roughly 30% of upside potential from where SeaChange has recently traded.
SeaChange hit a 52-week high of $8.45 on Monday, more than 60% better than the 52-week low of $4.95 on Nov. 8. In the past year, investors seem hesitant to keep the stock above $8 — they waffled after it touched $8.25 in December, although it held around $9 in early June 2007. Shares were last above $10 in March 2007. At Wednesday’s closing, shares were at $7.85.
SeaChange systems include MediaCluster storage servers, which keep up with growing customer demand for billions of streams, and software that lets content providers insert advertising into VOD, or dole out subscriber content such as HBO. SeaChange also is shipping more flash-memory-based servers for increased reliability.
The customer list at Massachusetts-based SeaChange includes the biggest digital content players — Cablevision (NYSE:CVS), Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), EchoStar (Nasdaq:SATS), Guandong Cable Television in China, Japan’s NTT/On Demand TV (NYSE:NTT) and Britain’s Sky (NYSE:BSY) — to name a few.
While more consumers are embracing video-on-demand services, what investors clamor for is performance. SeaChange is showing signs that it has some momentum, especially with new international clients.
Citing data from SNL Kagan, SeaChange’s annual shareholder’s report said international digital subscriber penetration is expected to show annual growth of 20% or more. About 94 million of the 404 million households worldwide that pay for non-satellite television services are in the United States. Roughly a third of those U.S. households have video-on-demand available.
For the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, SeaChange International reported a 12% increase in revenue to a record $179.9 million, with net income rising to $2.9 million, or $0.10 per share, compared with a loss of $8.2 million, or a loss of $0.29 per share, for fiscal 2007.
SeaChange also boosted its cash position to $87.9 million from $63.1 million the year before, and in February began a $20 million stock-buyback program.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2009, SeaChange reported on May 30 a third straight profitable quarter. For the three months ended April 30, revenue increased 17% to $45.3 million, with net income of $300,000, or a penny a share, compared with a loss of $4.6 million, or a $0.16-a-share loss, in the year-ago period. Gross margins rose to nearly 50%. SeaChange also announced an 18-month contract with Turk Telecom worth $15 million in revenue.
SeaChange realigned its business segments effective in the quarter, to software ($30.1 million in revenue, up 16% year over year), servers and storage (31% growth to $11.3 million), and media services ($4 million revenue, off 8% because of a decline from Latin American customers).
On a May 29 conference call with analysts, chairman and CEO Bill Styslinger provided encouraging guidance: “We expect revenue for the full (fiscal) year to be higher than last year and we have further refined this guidance to project year-over-year top-line growth to approximately 10%,” noting that VOD spending remains strong.
Analyst Alan Davis of D.A. Davidson & Co. maintained a “buy” rating on SeaChange, but upped his price target to $11 from $10 in a May 30 report. Brian Coyne of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., similarly maintained his “market perform” rating but an $8 price target, noting that “for the stock to break solidly through the $8 level,” SeaChange needs to show strong earnings, sustained revenue growth of 10% year over year, and contain costs. “We await better visibility into these factors, which could bring us off the sidelines in terms of our outlook for the shares.”
Summer is a time for television reruns, and should SeaChange International finish the first half of its fiscal year with a repeat of its first-quarter results, it could be a fresh hit for investors.