With nearly 20 million Americans reaching retirement age in the next 12 years, home health-care companies are ready to pull up a seat and make themselves at home; more than 70% of home health-care patients are over 65, according to government statistics.

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which tracks this data, says home health expenditures in the United States were $52.7 billion in 2006 and projects them to rise to $119 billion by 2017. Almost Family, Inc. (Nasdaq:AFAM), already active in nine states and an aggressive acquirer, seems poised to benefit from that growth.

The Louisville, Ky.-based company, which realizes almost half of its business in Florida, blew out analysts’ expectations with its first-quarter earnings report on May 6, showing a 47.5% increase in earnings per share, to $0.44 from $0.30, compared with the consensus estimate of $0.36. The quarter ended March 31.

The stock shot up to its current low $20s level from about $19, prompting Jefferies & Co. to exercise in part its option to buy overallotment shares from the April public offering it underwrote, buying 262,500 shares at the offering price of $17.75 and bringing the total net proceeds from the share sale to $41.7 million.

Avondale Partners raised its earnings estimate for 2008 as a whole to $1.48 from $1.27 and for 2009 to $1.60 from $1.34, not taking into account any new acquisitions, which the analysts consider likely. Avondale reiterated its “market outperform” rating on the stock.

The Avondale analysts noted the company’s strong revenue growth in the most recent quarter, 22.2% to $39 million, was driven by a 30% increase in the visiting-nurse segment of the company’s business that is Medicare-certified.

Combined with strict control of expenses, this growth enabled Almost Family to lift its EBIT margin by 130 basis points, to 11.4%, and register a 43% increase in EBIT to $4.4 million, 21.6% ahead of Avondale’s expectations.

About 17% of the overall 30% gain in visiting nurse segment revenue was organic, with the rest coming from acquisitions. The acquisition on March 27 of Apex Home Healthcare Services, the market leader in Jacksonville, Fla., with $16 million . . .

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