Today's Trading

Manufacturing worries capsize recent rally; largest 1-day loss of 2008

Kevin Pendley | Dec 01, 2008 04:30pm EST | Comment
Rating: Unrated

Small-cap stocks may have finished out November like a lamb, but they started out December like a lion, sinking hard and fast today in an abrupt about-face from last week’s strong upward surge. Slumping manufacturing reports around the world triggered today’s rout and the only safe place to park money was in credit instruments as financial, industrial, retail and commodity markets were in retreat mode. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 56.05, or 11.85%, at 417.09, snapping a string of five consecutive winning sessions with the worst daily loss of the year. The Russell is now down 46% for 2008, while the Dow is down 39% and the S&P 500 is down 44%.

Credit market safe havens were the preferred outlet of choice today, as investors fled stocks and sought refuge in Treasuries – especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed could buy long-dated Treasuries and that the economy remained under considerable stress. He also said that the Fed’s scope for reducing rates to stimulate growth was limited at this point, but that the U.S. economy was now better equipped to deal with the credit crisis. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes went wild, sinking more than 7% at one point during the day to about 2.7% as strong demand for notes lifted the price and slashed yields. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that recent bailout moves were making progress, that banks should increase lending habits and that he has more programs developing to boost lending. He also said that mortgage rates have not come down as much as hoped and that Americans know the economy is in recession. The market extended the afternoon sell-off as he spoke.

The market got off on the wrong foot today when manufacturing data out of China reflected a big drop in new orders. China is the world’s hub for labor, with widgets assembled there and shipped out around the globe. Then, manufacturing reports out of Europe were dour, setting the stage for a startlingly bad report on manufacturing activity here in the United States. The ISM Manufacturing Survey came in at 36.2, which was below the 38 forecast, and which was also the lowest reading in 26 years. What’s more, sub-index data on prices paid was the lowest in 59 years and the new orders sub-index was the lowest since 1980. This is a heavy week for economic data, and today’s numbers clearly sent an icy shudder through the market. As the week progresses, we’ll see data on vehicle sales, services sector activity, factory orders and weekly claims as we head toward Friday’s big monthly employment release. What’s more, we’ll also have weekly and monthly retail sales numbers to pour over, . . .

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Kevin Pendley

About the Author
Kevin Pendley covers the Russell 2000 index for SmallCapInvestor.com and writes a weekly technical analysis column.