U.S. stocks are expected to open lower, but overnight losses were trimmed following an upside surprise on monthly retail sales, which handily beat the forecast. However, some of the shine on the upbeat retail sales number was countered by another dour reading on weekly unemployment claims, which came in above expectations. Equity markets in Europe and Asia were lower overnight, with financial and consumer product stocks on the slide, which plays into the soft initial tone. The Dow is called down 50 points, while the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was seen down about 0.5%, near 445.75.

The retail sales report headline figure came in at plus 1%, which was well ahead of the projection for a slide of 0.7%. The figure excluding autos was up 0.9%, which also beat the forecast for a dip of 0.5%. This marked the first rise in retail sales in seven months and the biggest upside move since November 2007. While a big rally in stocks might have been expected off the nice retail sales release, the weekly unemployment claims report showed that 623,000 workers filed for benefits last week, which was above the projection of 610,000. Meanwhile, the number of people forced to file for continuing claims marked a record high and the four-week moving average for claims was at a 26-year peak.

Crude oil prices remained in negative territory after the economic reports came out, which could weigh on energy stocks early today. The dollar was up about 0.5% against the euro heading toward the open, which could keep a lid on commodity markets.

The chart reflects a market that is trapped in a trading range between 474 and 431 and a breakout through that range is needed to propel the market into a more decisive move. Wednesday’s modest volume bounce in a small daily range lacked conviction, especially in the shadow of Tuesday’s rout. For today, look for support at 443.50, then at 437.50. On the upside, resistance comes in at 454 and 461.