China Small Caps Buck the Downward Trend

Small caps are lower today following a drop in U.S. exports in March and multiple stock offerings across the board that doused enthusiasm.

At 2:04 pm ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is down 2.46%, while the Dow is down 0.26% and the S&P 500 has fallen 0.97%.

New data out today showed that the U.S. trade gap widened in March for the first time in eight months and exports fell 2.4%, weighing on the market.

Small caps bucking the trend today include STEC, Inc. (Nasdaq:STEC), up 31% after reporting operating results, while small-cap Chinese seller of mobile phone ringtones and games Hurray! Holding Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq:HRAY) is up 28% on speculation that Shanda Interactive, China’s biggest online games provider, may acquire the company.

*****Oil is above $60 a barrel. Investors are buying on the expectation that the end of the recession is in sight. And hopefully, Daily Profit readers are benefiting via my recommendation of oil services company Graham Corp. (AMEX:GHM). Graham is breaking above $15 a share today. It’s now up 65% for those who have been following me for a while.

Of course, oil stocks are up on expectations. A dose of reality comes from the housing market today. It’s reported that home prices fell in 134 of the 152 metropolitan areas the National Association of Realtors tracks during the 1st quarter.

Sounds bad, but there is a silver lining. The number of homes sold more than doubled in Nevada, rose 81% in California and 50% in Arizona. These states were among the hottest real estate markets during the housing bubble, and they suffered mightily when the bubble popped. That homes are selling is far more important than the price they are selling for. Housing inventory must get turned over for the economy to improve.

*****Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman isn’t convinced the recession is nearing an end. He doesn’t believe economic fundamentals support the recent rally and warns that recent economic data could breed “a dangerous complacency.”

The fear, of course, is that we will have the proverbial “double dip” of recession once government stimulus money (and patience) runs out. Like in the housing market, first time buyers are assisted by an $8,000 credit. That will boost

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