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Wyatt Research Staff

July 14th: Top Performing Small Cap Stocks (UFPI, BTH, UTEK, GLUU, JAZZ)

The stock market has remained in a holding pattern all week, as traders wait to see what kind of a compromise Congress and the White House can reach over federal spending as the August 2nd deadline looms large.

While the major small cap stock indexes don't show it, there were plenty of big moves Thursday as investors found positive signs spread among the ruins. Three of the top five performers all hit 52-week highs, and a management change helped the day's top small cap stock, Universal Forest Products, post a healthy 21 percent increase despite a 69 percent profit drop in the second quarter.

The Russell 2000 Index lost 1.63 percent in value and the Standard & Poor's Small Cap 600 dropped a similar 1.64 percent. While the Nasdaq Stock Market dropped 1.22 percent, two other major U.S. stock indexes held their ground a little better - the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.44 percent lower, and the Standard & Poor's 500 was off 0.67 percent.
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Ian Wyatt

Kodiak Oil Big Winner for Small-Caps

Stocks extended their gains for a second day in a row with all major indices closing up, though below a one percent gain.

The Dow finished the session at 9,398, up 37 points; the Nasdaq closed today at 2,009, up 11 points; and the S&P 500 finished at 1,012, up 7 points.

The Russell 2000 index, a composite of the leading small-cap stocks, closed at 575, up 4 points.

Small-cap price movers were lead by Kodiak Oil (Amex:KOG), up 30%. Following KOG were Dot Hill Systems (Nasdaq:HILL), up 22%; Pacer International (Nasdaq:PACR), up 16%; BioSante Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:BPAX), up 16%; and ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ACAD), up 16%.

*****Last week's better-than-expected payroll data is being offset by new jobless claims today. 558,000 people filed new claims for unemployment benefits. That was more than the median estimate of 545,000.

The number of people collecting unemployment fell by 141,000 and that lowers the unemployment rate. That sounds good, but I don't think it is. Most likely, benefits for these 141,000 have run out. So what little money they had coming in is now gone and they've just stopped asking. 

*****The most direct effect of massive unemployment is less spending and less revenues for America's retailers. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) beat earnings but missed on revenue. That basically means Wal-Mart fired a bunch of people to cut costs, then those people spent less at the store.

Overall, retail sales were down 1% in July after a 0.8% rise in June. With the unemployment rate still expected to rise to over 10%, and likely to stay at high levels for a few years, there's not a lot of upside for the retail sector.

*****SmallCapInvestor PRO members are just a few pennies away from knocking down another 100% winner. This time, it's a Chinese organic fertilizer company. The stock has been on a tear for the last month. And despite the fact that it's nearly doubled, the forward P/E is 17 and the PEG ratio is .45. In other words, there are more gains to come.

I have a new special situations report with detailed research on my 100% China winner plus two other high flying Chinese stocks. Click here to get this report now.

And speaking of SmallCapInvestor, we're open for voting for the t-shirt slogan for my first book, The Small Cap Investor: Secrets to Winning Big with Small Cap Stocks. There are some excellent slogan ideas, and if you'd like to help pick a winner, you can cast your vote for the best slogan at the SmallCapInvestor Facebook page.

Click here to cast your vote now.

The winner gets a full year subscription to all of my advisory services, so if your slogan is in the running, get friends and family to cast their votes so you can take home the top prize.

I'd like to thank SCI Daily readers for helping with the marketing of my first book. You're helping make it a success and I really appreciate it.

*****I probably shouldn't do this, but TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts technical analyst Jason Cimpl is alerting his readers to breakouts in the biotech sector. A couple names he's watching are Orexigen (Nasdaq:OREX) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:JAZZ).

Jason thinks Jazz is good for a 21% move from current levels, so if you're looking for a short-term trade from TradeMaster, this might be a good one.

Be on the look-out for tomorrow's SCI Daily as Jason will once again provide readers with video charting of the week's movements and most importantly, his outlook for how to trade for profits in the coming week. Look for this in tomorrow's issue of SCI Daily.

*****Investors are ignoring short-term weakness in oil demand and focusing on the long-term fundamentals. Oil prices are back over $71 a barrel today despite the highest reserve levels since 1991.

Barclay's expects oil prices to average $76 a barrel in the third quarter. And don't forget, hurricane season is looming. Oil stocks should be bought on dips.

Ian Wyatt
Editor
SCI Daily

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Claire Caldwell

GSI Commerce, Century Aluminum and ADC Telecommunications lead small-cap volume in pre-market

GSI Commerce Inc. (Nasdaq:GSIC), Century Aluminum Co. (Nasdaq:CENX) and ADC Telecommunications Inc. (Nasdaq:ADCT) are among the most actively traded companies in Thursday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Crocs Inc. (Nasdaq:CROX), Sequenom Inc. (Nasdaq:SQNM), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ), Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (Nasdaq:EGLE), China Housing & Land Development Inc. (Nasdaq:CHLN) and Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Nasdaq:CLNE).
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Claire Caldwell

ADC Telecommunications, WuXi PharmaTech Cayman and Lydall lead small-cap percentage gainers

ADC Telecommunications Inc. (Nasdaq:ADCT), WuXi PharmaTech Cayman Inc. (Nasdaq:WX) and Lydall Inc. (Nasdaq:LDL) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Wednesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Brigham Exploration Co. (Nasdaq:BEXP), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ), Internet Initiative Japan Depository Receipt (Nasdaq:IIJI), ArvinMeritor Inc (Nasdaq:ARM), China TransInfo Technology Corp. (Nasdaq:CTFO) and E House China Holdings Ltd. (Nasdaq:EJ).
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Claire Caldwell

Petroleum Development, Jazz Pharmaceuticals and Seattle Genetics lead small-cap volume in pre-market

Petroleum Development Corp. (Nasdaq:PETD), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ) and Seattle Genetics (Nasdaq:SGEN) are among the most actively traded companies in Wednesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: IMAX Corp. (Nasdaq:IMAX), ADC Telecommunications Inc. (Nasdaq:ADCT), Silver Standard Resources Inc. (Nasdaq:SSRI), Harbin Electric Inc. (Nasdaq:HRBN), China Housing & Land Development Inc. (Nasdaq:CHLN) and Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Nasdaq:CLNE).
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Claire Caldwell

ViroPharma, P.F. Chang's China Bistro and Sequenom lead small-cap volume in pre-market

ViroPharma Inc. (Nasdaq:VPHM), P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. (Nasdaq:PFCB) and Sequenom Inc. (Nasdaq:SQNM) are among the most actively traded companies in Wednesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Exelixis Inc. (Nasdaq:EXEL), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ), CardioNet Inc. (Nasdaq:BEAT), JAKKS Pacific Inc. (Nasdaq:JAKK), Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (Nasdaq:ENER) and THQ Inc. (Nasdaq:THQI).
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Ian Wyatt

Markets Continue Rally; SCSS Top Small-Cap Gainer

After trading down for most of today's session stocks edged up toward the close to finish up.

The Dow finished at 9,108.51, up 15.27 points; the Nasdaq was up 1.93 point to close the day at 1,967.89; and the S&P 500 was up 2.92 points to end at 982.18.

The Russell 2000 was up 2.42 points to finish strong at 550.88.

Leading small-cap price gainers was Select Comfort Corp. (Nasdaq:SCSS) up 46% on news that while sales for the second quarter of 2009 were down compared to the same quarter in 2008, operation income was positive net losses were substantially less. The company reported that Q2 operating income was $1 million.

Other leading small-cap gainers include Cerus Corp. (Nasdaq:CERS) up 45%; Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:JAZZ) up 44%; Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ARIA) up 42%; and Harleysville National Corp. (Nasdaq:HNBC) up 38% on news that it would be acquired by First Niagara (Nasdaq:FNFG) for $237 in an all stock deal. The deal values HNBC at roughly $5.50 per share, representing a 37.5% premium over Friday's closing price for HNBC.

*****Earnings season has been overwhelmingly positive so far. Only 16% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far has missed expectations. 75% have beaten expectations. That's what happens when earnings estimates are so low that they are virtually impossible not to beat. 

But what's happening now is very interesting…

Analysts are raising their earnings estimates considerably. Bloomberg reports that forward revisions to estimates now put the forward P/E of the S&P 500 at 13.13. That's 26% below the 50-year average 16.54.

So are we due for a 26% rally as stocks return to their historical norms?

*****If earnings season finishes with 75% of the S&P 500 exceeding expectations, that would be a record. Since 1933, no more than 72% of the S&P 500 has beaten earnings expectations.

But Bloomberg also reports that just half of the S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten revenue expectations. That means much of the earnings surprises we've seen are a product of cost-cutting and not rising revenues.

To the bears, this suggests there is still risk for stock prices.

*****To the bulls, it's now clear that pessimism went way too far. Stocks were priced way too low for a disaster that never materialized. More and more strategist-types are coming out and saying things like the economy is stronger than the numbers show and that a V-shaped recovery is underway.

Some economists are even raising their 3rd quarter GDP estimates.

Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke states that the economy will be in stronger footing. And this is an interesting point. Overinvestment in real estate is being written off and prices are falling to levels that make sense for the family budget and the business bottom line. Increased regulation will keep investors' money safer (we hope). Increased savings will put consumers on stronger footing.

In essence, the U.S. economy will, at some point, start growing from a much lower baseline. And while the stock market may only recover the gains it lost over the last two years, that recovery process would lead to some phenomenal gains from current levels.

*****The question for me is: when? I can't help but think that analysts may be overshooting on the upside, just as they overshot on the downside. And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who feels this way. Consider that existing home sales jumped 11% in June, and yet stocks are in the red so far today.

There can be no doubt that such a jump in home sales is unexpected good news. But stocks are ignoring it. I say that's because there's a lot of good news priced in already. 

*****So I may be cautious, but I'm going to do what I have been: buy quality stocks, watch them closely and take profits. That approach has been working great so far this year… 

*****TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts readers just took another 19% gain on MYR Group (Nasdaq:MYRG). Nice work, Jason. If you missed Jason's video chart analysis from Friday, you can check it out HERE

*****Now let's have a look at the economic data for the week.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, June 28, we get the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence numbers. Wednesday, it's Durable Goods and Oil Inventories. Jobless Claims are out on Thursday.

Friday is the big one, with the release of Second Quarter GDP. This should be a major market mover.

Best Regards,

Ian Wyatt
Editor
SCI Daily

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Ian Wyatt

Homebuilders LEN, KBH, TOL Up With Fed Holding Rate

Stocks moved higher today after several positive reports reversed early downward trading trends. Investors initially drove down stocks on news that first time unemployment claims increased by 15,000 last week.

Gains were made in homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE:LEN), KB Homes (NYSE:KBH), and Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) as well as retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq:BBBY), Kirkland's (Nasdaq:KIRK), and Pier One (NYSE:PIR). Both sectors have seen bankruptcies (Linens and Things, Circuit City, among others) and layoffs over the past year as the souring economy has brought housing starts to a crawl and forced consumers to pull back in discretionary spending.

The broader indexes were up today with the Dow finishing at 8,472.40, the Nasdaq showing positive gains to close up 37.2 points to close at 1,829.54, and the S&P 500 posting a 2.14% gain to close at 920.26.

Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 helped propel that index 2.87% to close at 509.14 today.

Leading small-cap gainer was Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:JAZZ) up 37% on news that the late-stage results for its fibromyalgia drug had met the company's main goal. The drug, Xyrem, is scheduled to be submitted for marketing approval. Gains in Jazz shares outpaced gains made by other, better known, pharmaceutical manufacturers including Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Merck (NYSE:MRK), and share price losses posted by GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK).

As we've mentioned in previous updates, this follows a general trend of sector rotation as investors are looking for more defensive plays, like healthcare and pharma, over the summer.

Other small-cap gainers for today include CPI International (Nasdaq:CPII) up 32%; Tween Brands (NYSE:TWB) up 27% on news that Dress Barn (Nasdaq:DBRN) will buy it for roughly $157 million in stock; Royale Energy (Nasdaq:ROYL) up 32.5%, an energy company involved in development and exploration of natural gas and oil in California, Texas, and the Rocky Mountain region.

Small-cap decliners were lead by medical oral diagnostics maker OraSure Technologies (Nasdaq:OSUR) down 23% on news that it needs to conduct more additional clinical trials to get approval for its hepatitis C virus test. The exact timing and costs for these additional tests have not been disclosed by OraSure and investors drove down share prices based on this uncertainty.

A number full of other small-cap stocks were big decliners today including data marketing services provider Acxiom Corporation (Nasdaq:ACXM) down 22%; Capital Bank Corporation (Nasdaq:CBKN) down 20%; and Cordorus Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq:CVLY) down 19%.

The Fed has spoken. Interest rates are not going higher anytime soon. And the Fed announced no change to its $1.75 bond purchase program. Bonds sold off, suggesting that traders hoped the Fed would do more to put a floor under prices.  

The Fed made it a point to say that "…inflation will remain subdued for some time." But the Fed also hasn't made any comments about target levels of inflation, or what levels of inflation would make it uncomfortable. With the amount of money being pumped into the system, this is a concern to me. Especially with commodity prices rising and the spread between 10-year Treasuries and 10-year inflation adjusted bonds (TIPS) increasing over the last month.  

*****Nothing will kill whatever recovery the Fed and others see coming faster than higher interest rates fueled by inflation fears.  

Most signs point to an imminent economic recovery. No one thinks it will be strong. But two straight months of increase for Durable Goods orders has most convinced that recovery, and a small level of inflation, is here.  

The Fed, in the other hand, is still fighting deflation. Unemployment is still on the rise, and modest improvement in the housing market doesn't mean we're anywhere close to working off the massive inventory of unsold homes. 

Given the very low expectations for economic recovery, maybe 2% growth in 2010, how does the Fed hike interest rates and start sopping up liquidity? I believe inflation will have to become a concern before the Fed can act.  

*****In case you missed last night's special Internet Video Conference, called Inflation Busters: Discover the Stocks to Grow and Protect Your Wealth, I have a replay ready for you. You can access it HERE.   

*****Reuter's reported yesterday that Rep. Barney Frank and another Democrat wrote a letter to the CEOs of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae asking them to relax their standards for condo loans.  

Apparently Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae recently said they wouldn't give loans to potential condo buyers if the condo development was less than 70% occupied. Makes sense, these days. But Frank and his friend are worried the tighter standards will impair the housing market and constrict future developments. 

This is appalling. The only thing we need more than more condos is more Hummers.  
If the government truly thinks we can simply reflate our way back to prosperity, they are sadly mistaken. This recession is new animal, one where both consumers and corporations took on way too much debt. That debt now sits in the form of unsold homes, many of which have been foreclosed upon. 

These homes (and condos) must get sold. But they must get sold to people with the means to pay the loans. Simply lowering lending standards doesn't do it and may well prolong the pain of this recession. Isn't the lowering of lending standards much of what got us into this mess to begin with? 

*****China's still throwing its cash around, this time offering $7.2 billion for oil exploration company Addax Petroleum (LSE:AXC.L). It would be state-run Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) actually doing the deal. But after the attempt to buy a $19 billion stake in Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) it should be obvious that China is intent on securing the commodities it needs. 

And in a world starved for cash, don't be surprised when China gets what it wants.  

*****Last year, travel group AAA reported that car travel over the 4th of July was down 10.5%. This year, it will fall another 1.9%.  Airline travel is expected to be up nearly 5%.  

 

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Ian Wyatt

FDA Warning on Zicam Pulls Down MTXX Almost 70%

Stocks started positive in morning trading, but quickly gave ground before the noon lunch hour Eastern time and never recovered. The Dow Jones Industrials were down 1.25% to close at 8,504; the Nasdaq closed down 1.11% at 1,796; and the S&P 500 shed 1.27% to end the day at 912.

Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, fared worse, giving up 1.22% to close at 505.

Today's small-cap gainers were lead by STEC Inc (Nasdaq:STEC), a California-based memory chip maker, up 29%. STEC increased its Q2 financial outlook stating that improved sales of its ZeusIOPS solid-state drive product line had caused the company to revision its guidance. STEC now expects adjusted earnings of between 32 and 36 cents per share.

Other small-caps showing leadership include La-Z-Boy, (NYSE:LZB) up 22% on news that it returned to profitability in Q4 and beating analysts' EPS estimates; Merge Healthcare (Nasdaq:MRGE) up 17%; Alvarion (Nasdaq:ALVR) up 16%; and Satyam Computer Services (NYSE:SAY) up 16%.

Small-cap decliners were lead by Matrixx Initiatives (Nasdaq:MTXX) down 70% on receiving a warning from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to discontinue selling it's Zicam product and for consumer to stop using it immediately. The FDA has indicated that there have been 130 reported cases of people losing the sense of smell after using the products. Zicam is a leading product for preventing and minimizing the effects of the common cold when the patient uses the product at the first symptoms of a cold. The FDA action affects only the nasal swabs and gels and does not apply to the tablets or lozenges.

Although Matrixx is on record stating that the product does not cause a loss of smell the company has indicated that it will consider withdrawing the products in questions, which in total account for roughly 40 percent of its sales.

Other small-cap decliners include Myriad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MYRXV) down 32%; Magyar Bancorp (Nasdaq:MGYR) down 34%; A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq:APWR) down 24% on news that first quarter earnings fell by nearly half; and two of yesterday's leaders: Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:JAZZ) down 17% and QEP (Nasdaq:QEPC) down 15%. 

*****Jason Cimpl, technical analyst at TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, called yesterday's 2.5% drop on the S&P 500 to a tee. If you watched the video chart analysis from Jason that I included in Friday's Daily Profit, then you were ready for Monday's sell-off. I hope you were able to profit from it.

And bonus points to Jason for calling the closing level of the S&P within 2 points. I think Jason's video chart analysis will be a welcome addition to Daily Profit. Look for the next one in Friday's edition.

******If it weren't for gasoline, prices at the wholesale level would have fallen 0.1% in May. Still, prices are off 5% from this time last year. That's the biggest drop in 50 years. Is this good news?

Not for corporate profits, and so probably not for valuations. And not for the Fed, who's terrified of deflation. But for the crowd expecting runaway inflation because of a weaker dollar and rising interest rates, it might be.

It should be obvious that weak demand and high unemployment will keep a lid on prices in the short-term. Remember too that it took 18 months before rising oil prices really started to find their way into the prices of consumer goods, too. Right now, inflation expectations are just that - expectations.

Still, those expectations have helped oil and commodity prices run higher…

*****And inflation expectations aren't the only thing driving commodity prices higher. Demand from emerging markets, especially China and India, remains fairly strong. After all, these countries have money to spend to help re-inflate their economies.

Jason Cimpl will be discussing the outlook for inflation and commodity prices in a special video conference next Wednesday, June 24 at 6:00 P.M. It's totally free, and Jason will share his top gold stocks with attendees (yes, we see significant upside for certain gold stocks). This video conference is free of charge, you can sign up HERE.

*****The Ural mountain city of Yekaterinburg, Russia takes center stage in global economic news today. The BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China--are holding their first ever summit starting today. The U.S. is not invited.

That's because these emerging economic giants want more control over the global economy. And with a combined 42% of global currency reserves, they are in position to throw their weight around a little.

It's no secret that the U.S. depends on these countries to buy our Treasuries and fund our bailout and stimulus plans, not to mention our trade deficit. So the news that these countries will be discussing plans to diversify away from American bonds and buy IMF bonds is important for the U.S. dollar. Just last week Brazil pledged $10 billion purchase IMF bonds. That's a far cry from the day's when Brazil was synonymous with hyper-inflation and a poster child for coming to the developed world hat-in-hand.

But there's more to the story, especially with China. Some estimate that China has as much as $1.3 trillion of foreign reserves, most of it in dollars. And right now, China is putting that money to work stockpiling commodities and supporting its economy. So buying Chinese stocks, especially Chinese commodity stocks, is a great idea right now.

At SmallCapInvestor PRO, we just loaded up on Chinese stocks. I believe this is the one reliable growth story in the world today. I've got a Special Report ready with my top investment recommendations; you can get a copy HERE

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Ian Wyatt

Markets Down on Weak Manufacturing Data and Oil Pull-Back

Investors saw lots of red in today’s trading session as regional manufacturing data suggested that economy is not picking up as much as had been hoped. Most economists had expected gains in the New York Fed’s manufacturing index but were instead treated to numbers indicating that the factory sector shrank at a more severe rate than expected.

A stronger U.S. dollar pulled oil below $70 away from its eight month high.

As of press time, 3:30 P.M. Eastern, the Dow was down -194.75 to 8,604.50; the Nasdaq was down -46.29 to 1,812.51, and the S&P 500 was down -23.25 at 922.96.

The Russell 2000 Index, comprised of the top 2,000 small-cap stocks, was down 16.77 at 510.06.

Bucking the downward trend today was pharma and financials. Two of the top percentage gainers were JazzPharma (Nasdaq:JAZZ) up 69.7% on positive news about it fibromyalgia drug and MAP Pharma (Nasdaq:MAPP) up 11.89%. MAPP has been on a tear since late May when it shot up to $11.39 from $3.15.

Other small-caps showing leadership today include QEP (Nasdaq:QEPC) up 39.07%, Tongxin Intl (Nasdaq:TXICU) up 24.75%, and two financials, American Capital (Nasdaq:ACAS) up 14.67% and New Century Bancorp (Nasdaq:NCBC) up 14.83%.

Small-cap decliners were lead by Oil-Dri Corp. of America (NYSE:ODC) down 23.24% following Friday’s news that it will lose its largest customer in the cat litter retail segment. Other leading decliners include Virgin Mobile USA (NYSE:VM) down 16.98%, book retailer Borders Group (NYSE:BGP) down 13.16%, and Integrated Electrical Services (Nasdaq:IESC) down 17.64%.

*****Summer doesn’t officially start for a few more days. Tell that to the parents who are now getting their kids off to camp or getting ready for vacation. For the standard two-income household, living easy in summertime is just a memory.

Including today, we have just 12 more trading days until the end of June and the end of the second quarter. I suspect we will have seen the highs for stock prices by then. That is, if we haven’t seen them already.

Oil backed off recent highs on Friday. And that’s likely to continue. Oil was too cheap at $33 a barrel. But $73 is too high, at least for now while much of the developed world is still mired in an economic downturn. We know demand is still weak. And we know there are looming supply issues when demand picks back up. However, the issue right now is the economy.

*****Oil has been rallying as the news cycle has been relentlessly optimistic about an imminent economic recovery. In fact, many leading economists expect U.S. GDP to actually grow in the third quarter.

Oil stocks that we’ve been following have been on a tear the market bottom, including Graham Corp. (AMEX:GHM) up 81%; Brigham Exploration (Nasdaq:BEXP) up 239%; Gulfport Energy Corp. (Nasdaq:GPOR) up 326%. Even the majors like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), BP (NYSE:BP), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) are bringing investors some decent returns, though not as great as small-cap stocks in the same sector.

Investors have bought the rumor of economic recovery. We’ll see how they respond to the news. I’ll be watching oil as the leading indicator for economic expectations.

Right now, it seems like stock prices have priced in a modest recovery. And if investors perceive that there’s not much upside left for stock prices, it would makes sense to trim exposure, take profits, or however you want to put it.

*****We’ve seen anecdotal evidence that investors are moving funds out of the stocks that have led the market higher. Technology has been having trouble making headway. And we’ve seen strength in healthcare and consumer staple stocks. Plus, the Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the cost of put options (which rise in value as stocks or indices fall, thereby giving investors downside protection) has been on the rise.

This suggests that investors are preparing for a downside move for stock prices, or, at the very least, protecting gains they have made.

*****On Mondays, I’m going to start offering a look at the economic data coming out during the week ahead. This week is a bit unusual as all the economic data is out on Tuesday. Tomorrow we get Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Producer Price Index (PPI).

Of course, consumers will focus on the housing numbers. But I’d expect any numbers will be interpreted with optimism. Investors seem to understand that the bottoming process for the housing market will be volatile and that wild swings in the data should be expected.

In my opinion, the PPI is the one to watch. The U.S. dollar rallied a bit last week, but there’s no doubt that massive Treasury bond sales have investors worried about a weaker dollar the potential for inflation to pick up. Add to that improving retail sales numbers, helped by higher gasoline prices, and you have the potential for a higher-than-expected PPI reading. Needless to say, that would not be good for stocks.

I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

Ian Wyatt

P.S. You’ll recall from Friday’s issue we start sharing charting analysis from TradeMaster’s technical analyst, Jason Cimpl. If you didn’t have a chance to catch, here’s the link. You’ll get his take on this week’s market direction. Since this is a new feature for Daily Profit I’d greatly appreciate receiving any feedback from you on it.

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Wyatt Research Staff

Cypress Semiconductor, Jazz Pharmaceuticals and Hawthorn Bancshares lead small-cap percentage gainers

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (Nasdaq:CY), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ) and Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (Nasdaq:HWBK) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc. (Nasdaq:BBX), Travelzoo Inc. (Nasdaq:TZOO), Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:SCMP), Coleman Cable Inc. (Nasdaq:CCIX), Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. (Nasdaq:ISLE) and Photon Dynamics Inc. (Nasdaq:PHTN).

Here are the biggest percentage gainers among small caps:
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Wyatt Research Staff

Federal Agricultural Mortgage, Targacept and North American Galvanizing & Coatings Inc lead small-cap percentage losers

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (Nasdaq:AGM), Targacept Inc. (Nasdaq:TRGT) and North American Galvanizing & Coatings Inc. (Nasdaq:NGA) are among the biggest percentage losers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Innovative Solutions and Support Inc. (Nasdaq:ISSC), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq:JAZZ), Astronics Corp. (Nasdaq:ATRO), Elbit Imaging Ltd. (Nasdaq:EMITF), Targa Resources Partners L.P. (Nasdaq:NGLS) and Quest Energy Partners L.P. (Nasdaq:QELP).

Here are the biggest percentage losers among small caps:
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Jennifer Schonberger

Russell advances as investors shrug off lackluster data and pick up financials

After opening in the red, the Russell 2000 has broken into the green and remains at its highs on the session, as traders shrugged off inflation data, higher crude prices and an increase in jobless claims and bargain hunters scoured for beaten down financials and embraced news that larger loans financed by Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) will be permitted to trade.

At 12:19 p.m. ET, Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) had climbed 7.12, or 0.95%, to 754.8, while the Dow surged 125.55, or 1.09%, to 11,658.51.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said today that larger home loans financed by Freddie and Fannie would now be permitted to trade in the bond market causing both mortgage lenders to jump some 6% midday.

Stocks initially opened lower on worse-than-anticipated inflation data and an uptick in weekly jobless claims.

Ahead of the opening, the Consumer Price Inflation report showed no relief on the price front, clocking in at a hefty 0.8%. The number was substantially higher than the forecast of 0.4% and rose to a whopping 5.7% year-over-year — the highest since January 1991. Even the “core” inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose faster than projected. Although, excluding food and energy prices isn’t an accurate gauge at the current time, as both have surged in price this year and are the main areas to which consumers are now deploying the majority of their disposable income.

“With core inflation drifting back up to its upper range, and the shorter-term metrics still rising, this report is a little unsettling,” BMO Capital Markets economist Jennifer Lee wrote in a note today. “However, we've likely seen the end of the energy price spike and we do know that consumers have generally stopped spending. This could be the high-water mark for inflation. But we'll need a couple of months of data to confirm that.”

The weekly claims report wasn’t reassuring either, coming in at 450,000, which was down from 460,000 last week, but still above the forecast of 432,000. Looking at a four-week moving average, claims remain on an upward trajectory and at the highest level in six years. Rising inflation coupled with weak labor market stats only serve to solidify the stagflation picture with which the Federal Reserve is grappling.

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Kevin Pendley

Russell near flat despite soft economic data

Small-cap stocks pushed lower on the opening, pressured by troubling economic data that raised concerns about both inflation and employment. That said, the market was hanging in relatively well given the sobering news, with the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) climbing into the green near 10:00 a.m. ET. At 10:03 a.m. ET, Russell was up 0.16, or 0.02%, at 747.86.

Ahead of the opening, the Consumer Price Inflation report showed no relief on the price front, with the headline figure climbing to 0.8%, which was way above the forecast of 0.4%. What’s more, the year-over-year figure rose to 5.7%, the highest mark since January 1991. Even the so-called “core” inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose faster than the projection. With gasoline pump prices pushing north of $4 dollars a gallon this summer and food prices on the rise, excluding food and energy doesn’t make that much sense anyhow.

The weekly claims report also carried a sobering message this morning, as unemployment claims came in at 450,000, which was down from 460,000 last week, but still above the forecast of 432,000. When looking at a four-week moving average, claims remain on an upward trajectory and at the highest level in six years. The combination of rising inflation and weak labor markets is a very difficult position for Federal Reserve policy makers to navigate.

“Headline consumer inflation spurted again in July because of another sharp jump in energy costs and a large increase in food costs,” Steven Wood, chief economist with Insight Economics, said in an email. “However, lower oil prices should reduce energy costs next month. At the present time the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place with renewed financial turmoil, a deteriorating economy, and climbing inflation. The Federal Reserve has been counting on energy prices to flatten out and weak economic activity over the next several quarters to cap both overall and core inflation. So far, no joy,” Wood said.

As the market prices in the bad news on the economic front, there are some bright spots to keep an eye on this morning, with automobile manufacturers, thrifts, homebuilders, department stores and airlines all on the upside. The S&P Retail Index took a hit Wednesday, but was on better footing this morning, even though retail leader Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) was unable to sustain overnight gains following decent earnings. WMT shares were down 1% shortly after the . . .

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Will Atkinson

Royale Energy, Jazz Pharmaceuticals and Manitex International lead small-cap percentage gainers

Royale Energy Inc (Nasdaq:ROYL), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ) and Manitex International Inc (Nasdaq:MNTX) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Pzena Investment Management Inc (Nasdaq:PZN), AspenBio Pharma Inc (Nasdaq:APPY), Cytori Therapeutics Inc (Nasdaq:CYTX), IXYS Corp (Nasdaq:IXYS), FieldPoint Petroleum Corp (Nasdaq:FPP) and Torch Energy Royalty Trust (Nasdaq:TRU).

Here are the biggest percentage gainers among small caps:
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Will Atkinson

Taylor Capital Group, United Community Bancorp and Syms lead small-cap percentage losers

Taylor Capital Group Inc (Nasdaq:TAYC), United Community Bancorp (Nasdaq:UCBA) and Syms Corp (Nasdaq:SYMS) are among the biggest percentage losers in Monday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ), Pzena Investment Management Inc (Nasdaq:PZN), MBT Financial Corp (Nasdaq:MBTF), Peerless Manufacturing Co (Nasdaq:PMFG), Washington Banking Co (Nasdaq:WBCO) and Community Partners Bancorp (Nasdaq:CPBC).

Here are the biggest percentage losers among small caps:
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Will Atkinson

Chemgenex Pharma, Security Bank and Bank of the Ozarks lead small-cap percentage gainers

Chemgenex Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:CXSP), Security Bank Corp (Georgia) (Nasdaq:SBKC) and Bank of the Ozarks Inc (Nasdaq:OZRK) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Friday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:VNDA), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ), Bank of Commerce Holdings (California) (Nasdaq:BOCH), National Coal Corp (Nasdaq:NCOC), First California Financial Group Inc (Nasdaq:FCAL) and Somanetics Corp (Nasdaq:SMTS).

Here are the biggest percentage gainers among small caps:
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Kevin Pendley

Russell down as financials sink

Small-cap stocks pressed lower on the opening as a fresh batch of earnings failed to impress investors in the aftermath of Monday’s rout on financial stocks and as crude oil drifted up to $135 dollars a barrel. At 10:00 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was off 5.56, or 0.76%, at 731.01.

Regional banks were hammered Monday, with Marshall & Iisley Corp. (NYSE:MI) sinking 5% to 52-week lows on analyst downgrades while Zions Bancorporation (Nasdaq:ZION) also set 52-week lows, losing about 10%. Unfortunately, the news remains gloomy for banks and other financial stocks, with Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq:FITB) shedding 16% shortly after today’s opening. Within the financial arena, large-cap futures and commodities broker MF Global (NYSE:MF) tumbled 22% as the firm said revenues were below the forecast and news that the company will sell convertible securities to raise capital and pay down debt.

The “headline” financial stock coming into today’s action was Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), which reported quarterly results that were slightly above the forecast. However, the firm was still pulled into the red, down about 6% in early trading.

Outside of the financial world, FedEx (NYSE:FDX) earnings came in below the forecast, and their outlook for 2009 was dreadfully in line with surging energy costs that are hurting results for the package courier. When the FedEx news came out before the opening, it sparked about a three handle additional decline in large-cap S&P 500 futures.

Speaking of surging energy, crude oil prices climbed back to the $135 dollar a barrel level ahead of the stock market opening on concerns about a potential strike in Nigeria that could crimp output. Crude oil pulled back toward $134 dollars, but should gather direction for the day from the latest stocks data, which will come out . . .

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Will Atkinson

National CineMedia, Columbia Bancorp and UAL among 52-week lows

National CineMedia Inc (Nasdaq:NCMI), Columbia Bancorp (Nasdaq:CBBO) and UAL Corp (Nasdaq:UAUA) are among the new 52-week lows in Thursday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ), HEICO Corp (Nasdaq:HEI), Crescent Financial Corp (Nasdaq:CRFN), Kona Grill Inc (Nasdaq:KONA), Aircastle Ltd (Nasdaq:AYR) and Rex Stores Corp (Nasdaq:RSC).

Here are the new 52-week lows among small caps:
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Will Atkinson

Chindex International, National CineMedia and Electro-Optical Sciences lead small-cap percentage losers

Chindex International Inc (Nasdaq:CHDX), National CineMedia Inc (Nasdaq:NCMI) and Electro-Optical Sciences Inc (Nasdaq:MELA) are among the biggest percentage losers in Thursday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: TOP Ships Inc (Nasdaq:TOPS), Mexco Energy Corp (Nasdaq:MXC), Abigail Adams National Bancorp Inc (Nasdaq:AANB), TBS International Ltd (Nasdaq:TBSI), Aristotle Corp (Nasdaq:ARTL) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ).

Here are the biggest percentage losers among small caps:
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Will Atkinson

Rimage, AEP Industries and Heritage Commerce among 52-week lows

Rimage Corp (Nasdaq:RIMG), AEP Industries Inc (Nasdaq:AEPI) and Heritage Commerce Corp (Nasdaq:HTBK) are among the new 52-week lows in Monday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

TASER International Inc (Nasdaq:TASR), Benihana Inc (Nasdaq:BNHNA) and Community Bancorp (Nevada) (Nasdaq:CBON) are also among the new 52-week lows

City Bank (Nasdaq:CTBK), Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ) and Banner Corp (Nasdaq:BANR) were additionally included among the results.

Here are the new 52-week lows among small caps:
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Will Atkinson

Imperial Capital Bancorp, Pharmaxis and Jazz Pharmaceuticals among 52-week lows

Imperial Capital Bancorp Inc (Nasdaq:IMP), Pharmaxis Ltd (Nasdaq:PXSL) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc (Nasdaq:JAZZ) are among the new 52-week lows in Monday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $750 million.

First State Bancorporation Inc (Nasdaq:FSNM), Mercantile Bank Corp (Nasdaq:MBWM) and Rubio's Restaurants Inc (Nasdaq:RUBO) are also among the new 52-week lows.

Here are the new 52-week lows among small caps:
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Alex Alexandrov

Russell 2000 futures drop

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) futures are lower and the small-cap index will open with a decline.

Small-cap stocks are set for a bearish opening following news that insurance giant American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) suffered the biggest quarterly loss in its history. The New York-based company had to write down over $11 billion in losses related to subprime mortgages, contributing to a net loss of $5.29 billion, or $2.08 per share.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Department reported this morning that spending increased 0.4% in January, while personal income added 0.3%. Economists were expecting smaller increases.

The same report showed that a measure of inflation is just above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred year-over-year range.

In what has become a familiar refrain, small cap stocks retreated in the shadow of a double top formation on daily charts Thursday – the third time this has happened during the month of February, which is quite unusual. The Russell 2000 closed down 10.72, or 1.50% at 705.72.

The market faces some mild economic data risk this morning. The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s information is out at 9:45 a.m. ET and Michigan sentiment figures at 10:00 a.m. ET. The market needs to stabilize above 700 ahead of the weekend, with initial support just below at 702, then at 694 and 688. Meanwhile, resistance is at 712, but the big test is up at 723.50.

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Jennifer Schonberger

Jazz Pharmaceuticals skids after FDA requests more info for its Luvox drug

Shares of Jazz Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: JAZZ) are sliding today after the drug maker said late Friday that the Food and Drug Administration asked for more information on its drug Luvox CR for the treatment of anxiety disorders.
 
Jazz, along with its Belgian partner Solvay Pharmaceuticals Inc., is seeking marketing approval for Luvox to treat social anxiety disorder and obsessive compulsive disorder.

On Thursday, the FDA approved the drug for the treatment of OCD.

In January, Jazz licensed the right from Solvay to market Luvox CR and Luvox in the United States.

Shares of Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) lost 9.9%, or $1.53, to $13.95 at 12:28 pm. ET. Shares of Jazz Pharmaceuticals have been trading in the range of $11.20 to $18.00 for the past 52 weeks. 

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