Tag - NYSE:ALD

As of press time, 1:00 P.M. eastern, stocks are trading down. The Dow was at 9,324; the Nasdaq at 1,987; and the S&P 500 holding over the crucial 1,000 level at 1,005.

Holding their own were small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000, down on 1/10th of one percent at 572.

Small-cap leading today's declines include Triad Guaranty (Nasdaq:TGIC) down 21% on reporting after Friday's close that the firm posted a net quarterly loss of $359 million versus a net loss of only $199 million from the year ago same period; General Steel Holdings (NYSE:GSI) down 13% on reporting that Q2 losses had widened to $31.8 million from $24.3 million; and Allied Capital (NYSE:ALD) down 13% posting Q2 losses of $0.16 per share and remaining in default on its debt.

That stocks are trading down as little as they are suggests traders are pausing as they await major retailer earnings reports and the results from the Federal Reserve meeting that begins on Tuesday. While the general expectation is that the Fed will maintain rates where they are, they are expected to possibly suggest an extension of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The TALF was recently broadened to include commercial mortgage-backed securities.

*****Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman thinks August is the trough month for the U.S. economy. And yes, he is reading a lot into the improved unemployment numbers from July.

Of course, it took trillions in direct spending, guarantees and loans to do it, but he believes we've got actual growth coming. It's worth noting, too, that Krugman estimates the stimulus plans have saved 1 million jobs. So, without the stimulus, unemployment would be around 12%.

*****Krugman's not the only one feeling good about the economy. Also at the Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur, economists Laura Tyson (White House economic advisor) and Raghuram Rajan (former IMF lead economist) echoed his feelings. We even heard that a new bull market is here from Goldman's reclusive strategist Abby Joseph Cohen. 

The evidence? Well, there's the improved unemployment numbers, better than expected Q2 GDP number, improved manufacturing numbers, and improvement in the Case-Shiller home price index.

What's missing? Retail sales and commercial real estate.

*****Last week, we got sales reports from a variety of retailers, and they were not good. Clearly with 6.5 million people out of work, there's simply not as much money to be spent. But perhaps equally important is whether employed consumers start to feel more secure and start spending more.

This week, we get earnings from Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Macy's (NYSE:M). I expect Wal-Mart will be fine. I'm not so sure about Macy's. Investors are also looking forward to back-to-school shopping. Early expectations are that sales will not be good for back-to-school. That probably means there's room for an upside surprise.

Of course, stabilization of the unemployment rate is critical for spending. But so is new job creation. And frankly, that still seems likely to take some time. It's likely that GDP growth is capped at 2% for 2010, and probably 2011, too.

*****We've discussed commercial real estate here in SCI Daily. Now, the Fed appears ready to discuss this issue. It's reported that the FOMC will have commercial real estate on the agenda at this weeks' meeting. That sounds like bad news for the bears…

If the Fed wants to do something about commercial real estate, it certainly can attack the problem via interest rates or loan guarantees. And with another weight lifted off the market's shoulders, we could expect stock prices to head higher.

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Best Regards,

Ian Wyatt
Editor
SCI Daily

Small caps soared in the green today, representing an impressive upside breakout through the recent trading range, which was defined loosely by the inauguration day collapse Jan. 20. Some of today’s small-cap gainers were VistaPrint (Nasdaq:VPRT), Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq:FITB) and Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq:EGLE).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index tumbled 38.8% to 732.1% and is now at the lowest point since the week ended Nov. 21.
• Diversified banks, life health insurers, financial services firms, regional banks and asset management firms were top performers today.
• For 2009, the Russell is off 5.3%, while the Dow is down 4.5% and the S&P 500 is down 3.2%.
• Yields on benchmark 10-year notes went from about flat right after the FOMC statement to rising more than 5% by the stock market close.
• Banks were clearly the star of the stock market show today, with the KBW Banking Index soaring 14%
• Crude oil futures in the U.S. edged higher on the close, gaining . . .

Just when it looked like the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) would close out Monday with a small gain, the index tipped into the red ahead of the bell on slumping financial stocks and concerns about the economy. Today’s small-cap gainers are Targanta Therapeutics (Nasdaq:TARG), CTS Corp. (NYSE:CTS) and PHH Corp. (NYSE:PHH).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• The NY Manufacturing Survey came in at -25.4, better than the forecast for -26.1. Still, it was the worst showing on record.
• Libor rates edged slightly higher overnight and have been correcting up slightly after going down every day for a month.
• The market was sharply divided today, with strong gains seen for several sectors, but big losses offsetting in other sectors, which had cumulative effect of keeping index movement relatively stable.
• Crude oil prices had an up and down day, but eventually succumbed to the economic fears and shed $2.09 a barrel, or 3.6% on the day. 
• Philly Fed says U.S. has been in a recession since spring, it will last 14 months, making it the most prolonged growth drought since the Great Depression.

Small Cap Gainers:

• Targanta Therapeutics Corp. (Nasdaq:TARG) rallied 36% on unusually heavy volume on news that the FDA will review an application for a skin infection drug made by the firm.
• CTS Corp. (NYSE:CTS) rose 18% as the electronics manufacturing supplier continued to rally off 52-week lows forged last week.
• PHH Corp. (NYSE:PHH) rose 17% as the financial services firm also tries to . . .

Small-cap stocks pushed higher into mid-session, supported by gains in airlines, retailers and energy stocks. Small-caps were firm relative to large-cap stocks which were pulled down by big financials and tech companies.Today's biggest small-cap gainers are Theravance Inc. (Nasdaq:THRX), Targanta Therapeutics Corp. (Nasdaq:TARG) and General Motors (NYSE:GM).

Other Market Watch highlights included:

• The U.S. dollar was down more than 1% against the euro, which also helped the tone in commodity stocks.  
• Crude oil prices pulled higher amid talk of OPEC cuts and the hijacking of a big Saudi oil freighter.  
• Financial shares continue to be a drag on large-cap indices, with the Financial SPDR Fund off about 2%.  
• The market was sharply divided today, with strong gains seen for several sectors, but big losses offsetting in other sectors, which had cumulative effect of keeping index movement relatively stable. 

Small Cap Gainers:

• Theravance Inc. climbed 15% as the company said that a skin infection drug showed capability to fight deadly bacteria See (Nasdaq:THRX).  
• Targanta Therapeutics Corp. jumped 34% on news that an FDA committee will review the firm’s new application for skin infections. See (Nasdaq:TARG).  
• General Motors Corp. is up about 11% as the automaker continues to benefit from expectations that the U.S. government will extend a helping hand to carmakers. See (NYSE:GM).  
• First stores open at Developers Diversified Realty's Homestead Pavilion late last week; shares up 8% today. See (NYSE:DDR).

Small Cap Losers:

• Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. slumped 21%, tumbling to fresh 52-week lows following analyst downgrades last week. See (Nasdaq:CETV).  
• Horizon Lines down nearly 10% following last week's news that the company would cut fuel surcharges by 5.5%. See (NYSE:HRZ).  
• Allied Capital Corporation down 12% today after analysts said last week that the company faces liquidity issues. See (NYSE:ALD).  
• Live Nation Inc. treads 16.4% lower today as recession fears continue to hurt the ticket industry. See (NYSE:LYV).

The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) started out the week with a whimper, unable to build on initial enthusiasm about a big stimulus plan out of China. Today’s small-cap gainers are Centennial Communications (Nasdaq:CYCL), American International Group (NYSE:AFF) and Wavecom SA (Nasdaq:WVCM).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Coal, agriculture products, aluminum, gold, metals and mining stocks and oil and gas drillers are top performers today.
• Anything REITS was getting hammered, as were automakers, wireless telecoms and investment bank stocks.
• Energy traders continue to be ultra sensitive to declines in equities, fearing a troubled economy will squash demand. 
• Copper jumped 8% in Asia, gold was on a roll and crude oil climbed 4% into the U.S. open.
• Crude oil futures eventually closed up about $1 a barrel for the day.

Small Cap Gainers:

• Centennial Communications Corp. soared 103% on unusually brisk volume on news that AT&T (NYSE:T) would buy the rural phone company for $944 million. See (Nasdaq:CYCL).
• U.S. plans more aid for AIG; shares closed up 62%. See (NYSE:AFF). 
• Wavecom SA jumped 23% on news that a hostile takeover of the firm was underway for the embedded wireless technology maker. See (Nasdaq:WVCM).

Small Cap Losers:

• Allied Capital Corp. tumbled some 43% today, as third quarter results did not impress investors. See (NYSE:ALD).
• Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. was off 37% as the outdoor advertising firm also get a thumbs down on earnings news. See (NYSE:CCO).
• Southwest Water Company dropped 37% as the water, wastewater and public works firm announced it will delay third quarter 10-Q filings (SEC quarterly . . .

Small-cap stocks started out the week with a whimper, unable to build on initial enthusiasm about a big stimulus plan out of China. In the end, worries about the economy, sagging financial shares and a belly flop in REITS was too much to overcome and the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) lost 12.69, or 2.51%, to 493.10. Small caps remained soft relative to large-caps, consistent with investor paranoia about risk right now. The Russell finished the day down 36% for the year, while the Dow is off 33% and the S&P 500 is down 37%.

The market came in on a high after China announced plans overnight to unleash a $586-billion stimulus package, aimed primarily at infrastructure improvements. The news sparked a 7% rally in Chinese stocks, a 5.8% surge in Japan equities and a 2% jump in European shares heading into the U.S. open.  Investors here in America seemed willing at first to carry the baton, with the Russell climbing nearly 2% right off the bat before hitting a wall.

Part of that wall was likely tied to concern about just how China would really funnel money into these projects and how much they were already going to do anyhow. Fair or not, there is a general sense that getting exact numbers out of China is a very inexact science. Still, extra money to pump life into the world’s fourth largest economy is clearly a good thing, and there are other worries to deal with, which also snuffed out some of the initial buying spark.

Commodities came into today’s session on fire overseas, eager to see the China stimulus plan as a bedrock for demand for physical goods. Copper jumped 8% in Asia, gold was on a roll and crude oil climbed 4% into the U.S. open. Although commodities remained a point of strength today for equities (the Commodity Research Bureau Index rose 1.7%), even those overnight gains were difficult to sustain. Crude oil futures eventually closed up about $1 a barrel for the day.

Financial stocks clearly struggled today, and an early lift from a G20 weekend statement supporting coordinated global plans to attack the financial crisis had a very short shelf life. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) climbed nearly 4% on the open, . . .

Small-cap stocks turned lower into midday trading, pulled down by worries about the economy, sinking REITS, soft financial stocks and concern that a big stimulus plan announced by China overnight might not be enough to jolt worldwide economic conditions out of the doldrums. At 12:16 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 4.05, or 0.80% at 501.75. The Russell was the first major index product to slip into the red, beating the Dow and S&P 500 into negative territory by about an hour.

There are always concerns about how the numbers actually shape up when dealing with details out of China. Skeptics looked at the plan calling for $586 billion worth of stimulus and wondered if most of that money was already planned anyhow, or just how much would actually be put to work. Still, the overall sense was that the China news positive, but that there were still plenty of landmines to avoid in coming months.

Commodity shares were the top performers through the morning, bolstered by the China news, by oversold conditions and by a mild dip in the U.S. dollar versus the euro. Coal, agriculture products, aluminum, gold, metals and mining stocks and oil and gas drillers were among the top broad market sectors today. Meanwhile, anything REITS was getting hammered, as were automakers. Wireless telecoms and investment bank stocks were also attracting heavy selling.

Crude oil prices actually slipped into the red by midday, giving back $4 a barrel worth of gains from overnight. Energy traders continue to be ultra sensitive to declines in equities, fearing a troubled economy will squash demand.

It was interesting to see that the Commodity Research Bureau Index of 19 physical markets was only up 1.4% at midday, not all that dramatic of a move given the overnight rally in crude oil, gold and copper from the China news. Gold seemed to be best commodity performer, perhaps tied to inflation positioning down the road, but commodities in general were backing off the morning highs as the day . . .