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Kevin Pendley

Small caps extend Friday rally as Obamanomics boost in play

Small-cap stocks pushed higher on the opening, lifted by a rally in overseas markets, weekend talk of a huge infrastructure stimulus plan from President-elect Obama and a bounce in commodity stocks. At 9:57 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 10.19, or 2.21%, at 471.28.

Crude oil prices were up about $2.70 a barrel into the stock market open, trying to mount a bounce after hitting four-year lows Friday and tumbling some 25% last week while generating the largest percentage decline in some 18 years. Copper prices also were higher overseas, and soft commodities like sugar and cocoa were soaring in early U.S. trading.

Some of the support in commodities was tied to a slide in the U.S. dollar, which was down 1.2% against the euro. The dollar was up 0.4% against the yen, but that was more of a reflection of a riskier mentality in play after last week’s big stock market bounce off the bearish jobs picture (the low-yielding yen tends to find support in safe-haven times). So, just where is the FX flow moving today? The Mexican peso and South African rand were both in rally mode today, as money flow into emerging markets and commodity exporters was in vogue.

A big part of the early rise in stocks was tied to news this weekend that Obama was planning a massive infrastructure stimulus project, which sparked a rise in engineering and commodity stocks in Asia and Europe that rode the tide into U.S. action this morning. Obama also said that U.S. automakers should not be allowed to fail, and the Senate is meeting today to discuss bailout packages for U.S. vehicle firms. Shortly after the open, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) was up 19.1%, while Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) was up 15.4%.

Despite the feel-good tone present in the glow of Friday’s triumphant stock market rally despite dreary employment data, there were spots of worrisome news in play. Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE:DOW) announced plans to close 20 plants . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Slide extended as global financial contagion spreads

Small-cap stocks remained unsettled this morning, unable to embrace Friday’s rescue plan package as equity markets around the world seized up and credit pipelines remained clogged despite massive additional liquidity injections this morning by the Federal Reserve. At 9:50 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 19.38, or 3.13%, at 600.02, slipping to the lowest point on intraday charts since May 2005.

In Europe, extraordinary measures were taken over the weekend on the banking front, with France’s BNP Paribas buying assets of beleaguered Fortis, while in Germany a rescue deal for Hypo Real Estate was sweetened by another 15 billion euros of liquidity, adding to an earlier pledge of 35 billion euros.

Everyone has been talking about the Federal Reserve slicing the Fed funds rate, but that rate has already been trading well below the current 2% rate in the market. This morning, the Fed increased the size of its cash auctions and also offered banks interest accrual on reserves. Stock index futures did pull off the overnight lows heading into the open on the Fed injection news, but the inability to stabilize financial markets in the direct aftermath of the $850 billion financial bailout bill Friday reflects just how deep the crisis is running.

Looking at market action around the world, European shares were off nearly 5% into the U.S. stock market opening. Elsewhere, Russian stocks tumbled some 15%, prompting various exchange trading halts. Japan was down 4.9%, Hong Kong off nearly 5%, China down 5.1%, Taiwan down 4.1%, Australia off 3.3%, Singapore down 5.6%, South Korea off 4.2% and India down 5.7%.

Market research experts at Goldman Sachs slashed their economic forecast for growth and interest rates “substantially” in a report issued Friday afternoon. Goldman said “The recession that we have been forecasting now looks likely to be deeper and longer, taking the unemployment rate to 8% by late 2009 and pushing the . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Russell rallies on improved profit picture, crude slide

Small-cap stocks generated another solid rally Thursday, boosted by decent earnings from key bellwether stocks and a downward spiral in crude oil prices. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed up 9.88, or 1.44%, at 696.63.

For the second consecutive session, investors were willing to dip their toes back into what had been chilly water surrounding the financial arena. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 5.3% and pushed through the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-May. Within the financial sphere, JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) was the big catalyst for the bulls today, jumping 10% after reporting solid quarterly earnings that topped the forecast. Once again, embattled government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) produced a stout rally, which calmed investor fears about the banking system and lent a supportive tone as well.

Crude oil prices tanked again today, crumbling some $5 dollars a barrel to slip through $130 dollars as options expirations heightened a selling mentality that was already in play amid concerns about softer demand from the higher price structure. Lower energy costs would be a welcome sign not only to consumers already pinched from higher food and gasoline prices, but also from many businesses that have seen margins sliced away by higher input fuel costs. Elsewhere on the commodities inflation front, soybeans, corn, wheat, sugar and cocoa all were sharply lower, and the iPath GSCI Total Return commodities index tumbled 3.0%.

While JP Morgan’s strong results appeared to be a driving force behind today’s stock market rally, there was a raft of big name companies that had surprisingly stout quarterly earnings on display. For example, United Technologies Corp. (NYSE:UTX), the world’s largest maker of elevators and air conditioners, climbed a cool 5.8% after beating the Street’s forecast. Within the capital-goods industry, UTX . . .

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