Tag - Bbby

Stocks opened in the green this morning and have held their own through Thursday afternoon on news that Wells Fargo issued a surprise profit announcement.

At 12:25 pm ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is up 18.34, or 2.64%, at 460.46, while the Dow is up 2.22% and the S&P 500 is up 2.53%.

New employment data out today did little tamper the strong rally. New jobless claims fell more than expected to 654,000, while continuing claims set an 11th straight record. The total number of laid-off Americans receiving unemployment rose to 5.84 million, from 5.75 million, the most on record since 1967.

Small-cap A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq:APWR) is up a whopping 33% after reporting a surge in Q4 profits. Cardiome Pharma (Nasdaq:CRME) is also up 24% after announcing a licensing agreement for Vernakalant, an investigational candidate for the treatment of atrial fibrillation.

******The minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released Wednesday. You might recall that was the meeting where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve would start buying $1.13 trillion worth of Treasury bills, corporate bonds and consumer debt.

Bernanke didn’t say at the time he was proposing the biggest Fed balance sheet expansion in history, but the members of the Fed lowered their estimates for economic recovery significantly.

The Fed had expected growth to return in the second half of this year and unemployment to top out around 8.8%. At the last meeting, dismal numbers from the start of 2009 prompted recovery expectations to be pushed into 2010, along with upward adjustments in unemployment number expectations.

It makes sense that the Fed took a more negative view of the economy. Why else would it take such a radical step as the balance sheet expansion? And I’ve been saying all along that unemployment will hit double digits before this recession is over.

What is interesting is what the Fed will say next. Bernanke has made some bullish comments over the last few weeks—comments that are somewhat contrary to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Perhaps Bernanake was just talking . . .

Stocks are trading lower today as fearful investors brace themselves in anticipation of poor earnings reports that will begin being released this week.

At 1:40 pm ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is down 14.55, or 3.19%, at 441.58, while the Dow is down 1.75% at 7,877.09 and the S&P 500 is down 2.09% at 824.93.

Small caps bucking the trend today include SumTotal Systems (Nasdaq:SUMT), up 47% after receiving a buyout offer. Legacy Reserves (Nasdaq:LGCY) is also climbing 29% today after receiving a proposal from Apollo Management to acquire all outstanding units of the company at a cash purchase price of $14 per unit.

******Time flies. Seems like earnings season just ended and yet here we are again. But first-quarter earnings kick off tomorrow with Alcoa (NYSE:AA).

Given how far the stock market has come over the last three weeks, you might think stock prices are set up for a fall as the reality of earnings dashes the enthusiasm that economic recovery is at hand.

Earnings will be bad. S&P 500 companies are expected to report that earnings are down around 35% from the year-ago quarter. And earnings were already falling then.

But don’t forget, stocks have been rallying because investors are anticipating an economic recovery. Though there have been some subtle signs that the economy is starting to improve, it hasn’t happened yet. In other words, nobody expects Q1 earnings to be good.

This earnings season is going to be all about guidance. What do companies see in the future? Will they be willing to say things look better? And more importantly, will any optimism be reflected in revenues and earnings forecasts?

That’s what investors will be focused on. I’d say it’s an “even money bet” whether stocks are higher or lower when earnings season wraps up a few weeks . . .