Tag - Dyii

If you had a chance to catch the article on page C5 in yesterday's The Wall Street Journal you probably found affirmation of what you already know about small cap stocks. It seems that Russell Investments (as in the folks from the Russell 2000 index, among others) have recently re-examined the stock market's performance coming out of recessions and they indicate there's strong evidence to suggest that small cap value stocks outperform all other coming up from the bottom.

Recent experience since the market bottom on March 9, 2009 further corroborates this thesis. We've already seen that the majority of gainers on any particular day have been small caps. Just look at some of the big gainers from just this past week: MAP Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MAPP), SYMS Corp. (Nasdaq:SYMS), AgFeed Industries (Nasdaq:FEED), Central Jersey Bancorp (Nasdaq:CJBK), FreeSeas, Inc. (Nasdaq:FREE), Exelixis (Nasdaq:EXEL) and Dynacq Healthcare (Nasdaq:DYII), just to name a few.

And recently an analyst from Morningstar, Bradley Kay, looked back even further to 1931 and noticed that there was a big performance difference between large cap and small cap stocks during recessions and recoveries. He further stated, "small cap stocks very much lead out of a recession."

This was my strategy in 2001 through 2003 when I started my first small cap service, Growth Report, and continues to be my focus with my SmallCapInvestor PRO service (you can get more information HERE) as we've already put in 12 out of 13 winners for the year.

The time is now to load up on small cap stocks.

In today's trading news, as of 12:00 p.m. Eastern today, the DJIA and Nasdaq are posting minor losses while the S&P 500 is just barely above even from the opening bell.

Russell 2000 Index stocks are up 0.02% at 492.32, a 43.4% increase since the March 9, 2009 lows.

Small caps leading the market today include Green Plains Renewable Energy (Nasdaq:GPRE) up 30.6% in today's trading, Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq:PNSN) up 16.5%, and J Crew Group (NYSE:JCG) up 23.9% on beating analysts' Q1 EPS expectations: JCG reported earnings per share of $0.32 while analysts called for $0.10. Analysts are now revising their full-year 2010 EPS estimate to $1.15 versus an earlier estimate of $0.54.

*****The high close for the Nasdaq since the rally began was 1,763. Yesterday's close was 1,751. For the S&P 500, the high close was 929 and it closed at 906 yesterday.

I mention these levels because they are what traders are watching. Some believe that, since the indices haven't taken out prior highs, the recovery rally is overdone and that a sharp sell-off is coming. Others say the recession is ending, the economy is improving, and there's more upside coming. To them, any weakness in stock prices is consolidation for the next move higher.

It should be remembered that the Nasdaq is still around 800 points, or 32% of its 2008 highs. The S&P 500 is 660 points, or 42% off its 2008 highs. So it's not like the indices are anywhere near prior levels. Who's to say what should be a decent target for a recovering stock market?

*****We can always check price-to-earnings ratios. (I'll use numbers from the Wall St. Journal's Market Data Center. This is one of my secret weapons, but, since I'm here to help, I'll share the link so you can bookmark it --  http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html#calandeco )

For the S&P 500, the trailing P/E is 15, and the forward number, based on estimates, is 15.75. For the Nasdaq, the trailing P/E is 13 and the forward number is 18.

Neither index seems extended on a price-to-earnings basis.

Oil hit a new high at $65, and inventories in the U.S. have dropped 3 weeks running. Traders believe increased demand as a result of increased economic activity is coming sooner rather than later. And bond prices have been falling, which is what you expect to see when stocks offer a more attractive risk/reward scenario.

Of course, one could also say prices fall when traders know there is a virtually unlimited supply of Treasuries hitting the market as the government needs to raise a lot of cash.

But explaining away numbers can be a bad idea. Because when we do that, we're letting our own bias creep in. That's exactly what happened last year when the drumbeat of a coming crisis started. So many pundits explained the numbers away with rosy talk.

*****The unemployment rate is nearly at 9%. Most believe double digits are inevitable. And what's worse, some are saying that high unemployment of 6%-7% may persist for years. But that doesn't necessarily mean that corporate profits will get worse from where they are now. Perhaps the current P/E ratios for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are appropriate. Maybe there's even some upside.

In my opinion, what's worrisome is that the next shoe to drop is still the first shoe - banks. There's no doubt that the rally for financials has come on the government's dime (that would be your tax dollars and debt to be paid by your children and grandchildren, of course). Refinances, mortgage and consumer debt modifications, investment gains from TARP money - these are all one-off windfalls. They blew in, and they will very likely blow right back out. What then?

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) currently has a forward P/E of 10. Compound annual growth for the next 5 years is 7.6%. BAC also has $225 billion more debt than cash. Quite frankly, I don't see any upside to BAC. And that makes me worry about the downside.

*****As you know, I've pointed out moments where it looked as though stocks were about to head lower with comments like "cracks are showing" or "the news cycle is turning negative." So far, no significant downside has occurred. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't.

Consumer confidence has been steadily rising, and stock prices show it. We're also moving into the summer months, which are traditionally the worst months for stocks. 

For now, the best advice is an observation - a trend is in place until it turns. There's no reason to simply sell or take downside positions now. But keep your eye in things, apply stop losses to your positions and we'll see what happens.

If you want to get a clearer idea of what's going to be happening in the markets, be sure to check out TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl sharing his thoughts on the SPX, which tracks the S&P 500. He's calling for the near term for a bullish trend. You can view the video HERE (no registration or sign up required).

Leading today's rally in small cap stocks is FreeSeas, Inc. (Nasdaq:FREE), a Greek based operator in international dry bulk shipping, on news that Q1 earnings of $0.29 per share beat analysts estimates by $0.04 or $0.24 per share. The company attributes much of this to the upward pricing in the Dry Bulk Index. Further statements from the company indicate management's expectation to achieve profitability throughout 2009. Shares are up 26% through morning and early afternoon trading to $2.76.

Other small caps in the shipping sector posting gains today include Hornbeck Offshore Services (NYSE:HOS) up 5.6%, Diana Shipping (NYSE:DSX) up 5.75%, and Genco Shipping (NYSE:GNK) up 6.7% for the day.

(Note: for more information about profitable shipping plays check out my new report, "3 Value Play Shipping Stocks to Navigate to Calmer Waters". You can find it HERE.)

Other small caps over 20% today (as of 1:30 P.M. Eastern) are from the healthcare sector with Exelixis (Nasdaq:EXEL) posting a 21.9% gain on news of it development partnership with heavyweight drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis to work on a cancer drug. The deal is expected to be worth $140 million upfront and eventually up to $1 billion. The other health sector leader, and in third place today, is Dynacq Healthcare (Nasdaq:DYII) currently trading at $3.37 on today's gains of 21%.

As of 1:30 P.M. Eastern the DJIA is up 0.90% to 8,374.73, the Nasdaq trails it just slightly bringing in a gain of 0.82% at 1,745.20, and the S&P 500 leads both with a 1.25% gain for trading to bring it to 904.20.

*****Yesterday, it was reported that median home prices fell to $209,700 from $246,400 in April 2008. That's a steep year-over-year correction, even though prices were up from March 2009.

Today, we hear that that new home sales posted a gain, though not as big as expected.

The housing market is bottoming. How long will the bottoming process take? Common sense would say it will take a while, probably a couple years, to work off the inventory and get current delinquent loans back on track.

Persistently high unemployment rates will not help speed the recovery in housing. But at least we're seeing signs that the housing market is stabilizing. We should expect to see swings in the data, one good month could easily be followed by a bad month. It will be interesting to see how much the stock market moves on housing data going forward. I would suspect that only extreme readings would move stocks significantly.

*****The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 9% of mortgages are delinquent. Throw in mortgage holders that are in foreclosure and it's 12%. That's a huge percentage. It's also the highest since data was tracked, starting in 1972.

It's easy to see why the numbers are so ugly - as the unemployment rate rises, fewer can afford their mortgages. And in some areas of the country the unemployed can't move to find a job because they can't sell their home. So it's no wonder that more and more economists expect a "double-dip" of recession.

74 percent of economists responding to a National Association for Business Economics survey believe the U.S. economy will grow in the 3rd Quarter. But the growth won't be strong or lasting.

A growing number of economists, including Dr. "Doom" Nouriel Roubini, believe it's likely that the U.S. economy will go back into recession in the second half of 2010, when government stimulus wears off.

*****The economic recovery is facing two major speed bumps - rising energy prices and rising interest rates. As the economy recovers, energy prices will rise, soaking up excess household funds and leaving less for discretionary spending. We've seen oil prices practically double so far this year and OPEC has announced that it feels that RIGHT NOW oil should be valued at $80 a barrel: meaning another 27% from today's $63. That's going to hurt at the pump even more. Here at the Washington, D.C. offices we're already up 40% since December with a regional average of about $2.39.

As the government continuer to sell Treasury bonds to fund the budget shortfall (over $1 trillion for 2009, and counting) and pay for stimulus initiatives, bond yields will rise, making it more expensive for consumers to get a loan. That will affect the market for big-ticket items like cars and new appliances, not to mention homes.

*****All this will have important consequences for your investments for the foreseeable future. First and foremost, it will be important to follow sector trends. Energy will remain strong, but sectors like retail, housing and consumer goods will probably remain volatile. There will be some quick, isolated opportunities here and there in those sectors, but the broader trend is not positive.

Also, risk management will be critical to success. Investors should have exit strategies in place for their investments. This is not a time to be thinking "buy and hold." Rather, if you have gains, don't be afraid to take the money and run.

*****Speaking of taking your money…just this morning I advised my Top Stock Insights advisory service members to take their 19% gains on BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) today. BlackRock was my feature recommendation for profiting from the Treasury's Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) to remove toxic assets from banks' balance sheet.

Several important aspects of the plan have been removed, and I suspect Treasury Secretary Geithner will abandon it altogether soon. The PPIP is simply not going to work, and for many of the reasons I've stated here in Daily Profit.

First and foremost, banks simply don't want to sell. And Geithner blew his opportunity to gain some leverage over the banks through his "stress tests." And all the bailout money didn't exactly convince banks they were in danger of failure and needed to sell.

At least Top Stock Insights readers managed to turn a profit on Geithner's failed plan. Now, we're setting our sights on India. The recent election there has set the stage for massive economic reform and jumpstart to growth.

Despite a huge jump for Indian stocks in the wake of the election results, not many investors are considering India right now. But I think that gives us a distinct advantage as India could be one of the great growth stories this year and going into the next several years. If you're interested, you can find out how to get my Special Report 3 India Stocks Set to Soar in 2009 by clicking HERE.

NutriSystem Inc. (Nasdaq:NTRI), TRC Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRR) and Income Opportunity Realty Investors, Inc. (AMEX:IOT) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $750 million.

California First National Bancorp (Nasdaq:CFNB), Dynacq Healthcare, Inc. (Nasdaq:DYII) and Syms Corp. (Nasdaq:SYMS) are also among the top small-cap percentage gainers.

Here are Tuesday's biggest percentage gainers among small caps:

Dynacq Healthcare, Inc. (Nasdaq: DYII) said it swung to a profit in its fiscal fourth quarter and reported fiscal 2007 full-year results.

For the three months ended Aug. 31, the Houston-based holding company recorded net income of $3.6 million, or $0.22 per share, compared with a net loss of $1.3 million, or $0.08 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2006. No analyst estimates were available.

Income from continuing operations was $2.1 million, or $0.13 per share, compared with a loss from continuing operations of $1.5 million, or $0.10 per share, in the fourth quarter last year.

The small cap said net patient service revenues for the quarter increased 8% to $11 million from $10.1 million in 2006 due to an increase in the company’s bariatric and orthopedic cases at its Garland Facility. 

For its full fiscal year 2007, net income was $4.2 million, or $0.26 per share, compared with a net loss of $5.9 million, or $0.39 per share, for the same period in 2006. No analyst estimates were available.

Income from continuing operations for the year was $3.8 million, or $0.24 per share, compared with a loss from continuing operations of $3.1 million, or $0.21 per share, in the same period in 2006.

Net patient service revenues for the year increased 19% to $42.8 million from $36 million in 2006.

Dynacq Healthcare is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide surgical health-care services and related ancillary services through hospital facilities.

Despite the upbeat quarter and full year, shares of Dynacq (DYII) slid 9.62%, or $0.61, to $5.73 at 12:42 p.m. ET. Shares of Dynacq Healthcare have been trading in the range of $1.13 to $9.39 for the past 52 weeks.

China Sunergy Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq: CSUN), SUMMER INFANT INC (Nasdaq: SUMRU) and Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (AMEX: GOV) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $750 million.

Here are today's biggest percentage gainers:

China Shenghuo Pharmaceutical Hldg, Inc. (AMEX: KUN), Cape Fear Bank Corp. (Nasdaq: CAPE) and SulphCo, Inc. (AMEX: SUF) are among the biggest percentage gainers in Thursday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $750 million.

Here are today's biggest percentage gainers:

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) is gaining and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) is looking for another record close following economic news that eases inflation concerns.

At 10:05 a.m. ET the Russell 2000 had added 3.39 points, or 0.40%, to 851.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 34.06 points, or 0.24%, to 13,985.04.

The U.S. producer price index, which tracks the price of domestically produced goods, fell at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.2% in June, the Labor Department announced before the start of trading. Economists were calling for a rise of 0.1%.

Energy products fell 1.1%, while the index for finished goods other than foods and energy increased 0.3% in June.

That’s an indication that inflation has not picked up despite a tight labor market and the rising price of oil.

In other economic news, industrial production in June added 0.5%, above the projected rise of 0.3%, the U.S. Federal Reserve said before the opening bell.

Total industrial production for the second quarter of 2007 has advanced at an annual rate of 2.9%, more than twice the rate of 1.1% during the first three months of the year.

Hearst Communications sold 243,128 of paid-search provider Local.com Corp. (Nasdaq: LOCM) at $9.07, according to Briefing.com.

Home improvement products maker Q.E.P. Co., Inc. (Nasdaq: QEPC) reported first-quarter sales of $57 million, above estimates of $54 million.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) filed with the SEC a form to release its annual report and restate its financial data from fiscal years 2003, 2004 and 2005.

The following are the most actively traded companies in Tuesday pre-market trading among those with market capitalizations under $500 million:

Hospital holding company Dynacq Healthcare, Inc. (Nasdaq: DYII) swung to a third-quarter profit on a dramatic revenue swell. For the three months ended May 31, the Houston, Tex.-based company announced net income of $2.6 million, or $0.17 per share, from $0.8 million, or $0.05 per share, a year earlier.

These are the biggest percentage gainers in Monday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $500 million: