Tag - Gd

The markets were up today sloughing off yesterday's losses. The down closed up 57 points to 8,504. The Nasdaq gained 11 points to close at 1,845 and the S&P 500 gained 4 points to close at 923 after hitting resistance at 932 in morning trading and slowly sliding back down.

The Russell 2000, moved up just under 2% for the day to close at 517. The Russell 2000 represents the 2,027 small cap companies and contains well known companies like 1-800 Flowers.com (Nasdaq:FLWS), BankRate.com (Nasdaq:RATE), and Dominos Pizza (NYSE:DPZ). The Russell 2000 Index is up 50.7% since the market's nadir on March 9, 2009.

Small-cap gainers were lead by Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK), up 27% after the Pentagon announced that the firm's new blast resistant, off-road ground force vehicles were the "clear winners" in a multi-billion dollar competition. Oshkosh won the bid to build 2,244 vehicles for a deal worth $1.06 billion. The company beat out defense industry heavyweights including BAE Systems (LSE:BA.L) and General Dynamics (NYSE:GD).

A very exciting small-cap gainer today was LogMeIn (Nasdaq:LOGM), up 25% on it's IPO. LogMeIn is an on-demand connectivity specialty service firm whose product allows computer users to access files and services on one of their computers from another computer across the Internet.

For example, workers can access files resident on their office computers from home without having to attach to a corporate network or have their files stored on network servers. LogMeIn's services are primarily directed to small and medium-sized businesses.

Other gainers included Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE:IVN), up 23%; Northeast Bancorp (Nasdaq:NBN), up 23%; and ShengdaTech (Nasdaq:SDTH), up 19% after being upgraded by Roth Capital to a Buy rating from a Hold.

Small-cap decliners were lead by CardioNet (Nasdaq:BEAT), down 41% on news that the company slashed its profit and revenue outlook for 2009. The Pennsylvania-based maker of wireless heart-monitoring devices revised its profits to a range of 30 cents to 35 cents from earlier forecasts of 69 cents to 73 cents. Investors punished the company by unloading shares started right the open and continuing through the day. Shares tumbled to $9.57 from Tuesday's close of $16.32.

Rounding out the small-cap decliners were Repros Therapeutics (Nasdaq:RPRX), down 31% after being downgraded by Wedbush Morgan and Ladenburg Thalmann; Spartan Motors (Nasdaq:SPAR), down 27%, and Immersion Corporation (Nasdaq:IMMR), down 23%.

*****Earnings season is right around the corner. It seems that expectations are pretty low. I've read a few commentaries that suggest that estimates are low enough that companies should be able to meet them. Of course, what corporate America has to say about the future will be important.

Of course, I'll be watching the banks closely.

*****A lot has gone right for the banks lately. Changes to accounting rules have allowed them enough breathing room to operate. Mortgage loan modifications have brought in fees. And trading activities have even helped some banks to boost profits.

Still, I believe there's another banking shoe to drop.

As I reported yesterday, foreclosure sales are the majority of home sales these days. And when a bank sells a foreclosed home, it is a realized loss. That's as opposed to a non-performing loan or a foreclosed home that has yet to be sold, which can be counted as an asset.

Further exacerbating this is that banks are not realizing as much profit on those sales of foreclosed homes as they're all flooding the market with them and thus driving down prices.

So I expect to see higher losses affecting banks' earnings in the future. These losses may not show up in the earnings season that's about to begin, but they are looming.

*****It was reported today that mortgage applications fell 19% last week, another sign that foreclosures are driving the market. It also reinforces the point that once foreclosure sales slow, there may well be little demand for traditional home sales to pick up the slack.

Rising interest rates and still-falling home values are also impacting new mortgage applications. It's a buyers market, and there's no reason to rush in when prices are falling and loan costs are rising.

*****Bloomberg is reporting that 20 million of the 93 million homes, condos and co-ops in the U.S. are underwater as of March 31, 2009. Somebody will take these losses at some point, whether it's the homeowner, the bank or the government/taxpayer or a combination of any or all of the three.

******We know that sub-prime mortgages were a major source of non-performing loans and foreclosures. Now, prime mortgages are in trouble. In his morning missive to his traders, TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts' Jason Cimpl had this to say:

Delinquencies on prime mortgages soared in the first quarter of this year. Delinquency rates on prime mortgages, the least risky category, were 661,914, a jump from 250,986 a year earlier. Two thirds of all mortgages in the U.S. are prime mortgages, so any percentage increase in delinquencies represents a huge absolute number of delinquent mortgages. Here is more proof that banks are in for a tough few years as they must monitor their loan portfolios even closer and suffer write-offs. If prime mortgages start going south in a big way, look for banks to stiffen lending standards even more. Either way, this will have a negative impact on their bottom line numbers

The evidence is building that the economy is nowhere near out of the woods. And we can also see that banks will be facing serious problems ahead. As I said yesterday, investors should be on their toes.

Also, we're not recommending downside positions on banks - yet. But that time will come, and there will be a lot of money to be made.

*****I'm giving my staff the day off on Friday. There will be no Daily Profit that day. And I've cajoled Jason into giving us his video chart analysis tomorrow, so we have that to look forward to tomorrow…

If you can't wait, check out Jason's video from last week and get a special opportunity to try his TradeMaster service. Click here.

Force Protection, Inc. (Nasdaq: FRPT) shares are rising after the maker of armored vehicles announced that its joint venture with General Dynamics Land Systems (NYSE: GD) broke monthly vehicle production records in December.

"The strength of the Force Dynamics enterprise was again evident in December, which was a shortened production month due to the holidays," COO Raymond Pollard said in a statement.

The two companies’ joint venture, Force Dynamics LLC, produced 343 mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles during December. To date, the venture has produced more than 1,360 Cougar MRAP vehicles.

Josephine Millward, an analyst for the investment banking firm Stanford Financial, is not swayed by Force Protection’s latest news and is maintaining a “sell” rating. However, Millward said she is reviewing her 12-month price target on the company since Force Protection shares already surpassed $5.

“They’ve had this joint venture forever. The problem with Force Protection is their overly optimistic expectations for next year,” Millward said. “They’re highly exposed to the MRAP program and demand is expected to decrease in 2008. Their problem is lack of a sustainable long-term business model.”

In afternoon trading, FRPT shares are up 10.26%, or $0.48, at $5.16. Over the last 52 weeks, shares have ranged from $3.89 to $31.16.

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) fell today following news of a decline in U.S. manufacturing in November. The small-cap index lost 7.80 points, or 1.02%, to 759.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) stumbled 57.15 points, or 0.43%, to 13,314.57.

On a year-to-date basis, the Russell 2000 is off 3.49%, while the Dow has added 6.73% and the S&P 500 is up 3.94%.

The futures were pointing north and the major U.S. indices opened in the green but immediately fell as investors anticipated a decline in November manufacturing activity.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, released at 10 a.m. ET, showed a reading of 50.8, below October’s level of 50.9 but above economists’ projections of 50.5. A reading above 50 is an expansion.

“While other segments of the economy are struggling, manufacturing continues to grow due to continuing strength in new orders and a recovery in production from last month,” said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, in a statement.

Exports, production and new orders increased, while employment declined 4.2% compared with the level in October.

Small-cap stocks fell despite news of the smaller-than-expected decline.

After a lull for several quarters, things may be about to heat up at little-followed Stratos International (Nasdaq: STLW).

The $109 million market cap niche tech company should wrap up its strategic alternatives review process over the next month or two. Last September, Stratos, a manufacturer of RF, microwave and optical subsystems and components, announced that it was reviewing its strategic alternatives with an investment bank. This move came after large Stratos shareholder Steel Partners made an unsolicited $7.50 per share buyout offer for the company. Steel has a 15% stake in Stratos and has been in the stock since January 2005.

Chicago-based Stratos was formed through the November 2003 merger of Stratos Lightwave, an optical subsystems and components provider, and Sterling Holding, which had its roots in the RF and microwave interconnect business. A one-time tech darling, Stratos fell hard after the tech bubble burst and dropped off Wall Street’s radar. Stratos CEO Philip Harris inherited a badly struggling, unfocused and unprofitable company when he came aboard in December 2004.