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Ian Wyatt

VirnetX Holding Up on Patent Infringement Action

Stocks continued Thursday's rally as investors reacted to news about the second quarter GDP number with the Nasdaq the exception.

 

The Dow closed up 16.93 to finish the week at 9,171.39; the Nasdaq finished down at 1,978.50, losing 5.80 points after showing gains for most of the day; and the S&P 500 close up 0.72 points to finish at 987.47.

 

Stocks in the Russell 2000 closed down 0.09 points to end at 557.71. 
 

Leading small-cap gainers include VirnetX Holding (AMEX:VHC) up 112%; Anadys Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ANDS) up 44%; Inovio Biomedical (AMEX:INO) up 38%; and Integra Bank (Nasdaq:IBNK) up 34%.

 

Small-cap decliners were lead by notebook computer parts maker Synaptics (Nasdaq:SYNA) down 33% on news that the firm had disclosed fiscal 2010 growth will be slower than expected. Analysts immediately downgraded the stock driving prices down immediately at the open.

 

Other small-cap decliners include iStar Financial (NYSE:SFI) down 19%; Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:ARIA) down 18%; and YRC Worldwide (Nasdaq:YRCW) down 17%.

*****Today was the big one. Say what you want about yesterday's rally, the reaction to this morning's 2Q GDP number should be expected to influence trading going forward.  

Now, I'm going to let TradeMaster Jason Cimpl's morning commentary to his traders provide the in-depth analysis to the GDP number:  

Second quarter annualized rate GDP was reported at -1.0%, compared to the consensus of -1.5%.  

First quarter GDP was revised lower to a 6.4% decline from the previous reading of a decline of 5.5%. Personal consumption fell 1.2% (the consensus had been 0.5%). 
This market might be crazy enough to ignore the downward revision from the previous quarter, but how can they possibly brush off that personal consumption reading? 
Personal consumption is the largest portion of GDP. This number should have investors concerned. 

Volume numbers today will be a big tell if the street really likes the GDP figures. At the end of the day, GDP is a lagging indicator, so don't expect that today is the game changer. 

Thanks, Jason. 

He's got his Friday video online where he'll do a quick recap of the market for the week and more importantly, provide guidance on market direction and action for the coming week. Click here to watch Jason's video analysis.

*****Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) CEO Josef Ackerman says "The crisis is not over." He told Bloomberg that "[b]ad loans are the next wave. Banks that have fared relatively well so far will also be affected by this." 

As evidence, problem loans at Deutsche Bank rose 44% on the last quarter. Deutsche Banks has raised its loss reserves to $1.4 billion and also reduced its balance sheet and risk-taking.  

*****I continue to view oil as a critical leading indicator for global economic recovery. So long as oil prices remain strong, investors are clearly ignoring current demand statistics and focusing instead on future demand and slack production growth.  
For instance, Europe's third largest oil company, Total SA (NYSE:TOT) reported that production fell 7.3% in its 2nd quarter. That puts Total's production back to year 2000 levels.  

The reason is obvious: demand is down, and Total, like most oil companies, is cutting back on investment in new production because prices are down.  

Despite a slight rise in production, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reported a 51% drop in revenues. It would seem likely that the revenue shortfall will affect Chevron's investments in new production, too.

The big question, though, is if investors will shift their focus to current demand numbers. At some point, declining profitability and continuing economic weakness should bring oil prices down.

*****It's pretty clear now that trends like weak GDP, weak demand for oil, rising unemployment we've seen emerging from the financial crisis and recovery will be with us for a long time.

Clearly, these conditions will have a profound effect on your investments in the months and years ahead.

And because many of these conditions are a direct result of government bailouts, I'm calling the condition Managed America.

We're hosting a video conference to look forward to investing strategies for the remainder of 2009 and beyond, and to explore my concept of Managed America and how you can still make profitable investments. The U.S. economy has changed and investors need to understand the changes in order to make the best investments.

The Managed America video conference will air on August 10, 2009 at 6:00 P.M. You can register for this important event when you click HERE.

Best Regards,

Ian Wyatt
Editor
Daily Profit

 


 

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Ian Wyatt

Markets Close Up Despite Late Session Sell-Off

Stocks rallied today suggesting that investors sloughed off fears of a correction or at least pushed out the day of reckoning. The Dow closed up 83.51 to 9,154.23 after a major drop down during the last hour of trading. The Nasdaq closed up 16.54 to end the day at 1,984.30 and the S&P 500 closed up 11.60 to finish at 986.75 after and early session high of 996.68 had traders believing that 1,000 might be broken.

The Russell 2000 closed at 557.75, up 9.37.

Leading price gainers for small-cap today was Georgia Gulf Corporation (NYSE:GGC) up 119% after announcing it had cut its debt load by half. Other small-cap gainers include Valassis Communications (NYSE:VCI) up 30%; Brunswick Corporation (NYSE:BC) up 27%; and American Superconductor Corporation (Nasdaq:AMSC) up 23%.

Decliners in the small-cap space were lead by Inovio Biomedical Corporation (AMEX:INO) down 53% after announcing today that it had received commitments from institutional investors to purchase $30 million in securities. Other small-cap decliners include Lee Enterprises (NYSE:LEE) down 30%; Alliance Healthcare (NYSE:AIQ) down 30%; and icad (Nasdaq:ICAD) down 20%.

******Stocks have traded in a pretty tight range over the last several sessions. There's been an appearance of weakness, and some comments from talking heads that a correction is coming, or may have started. It's sure not looking that way today.

Stocks are big in the early going. The sell-off in China I mentioned the other day has reversed. All the talk of an imminent overheating of China's economy now sounds like a deliberate attempt to work stocks lower so dips could be bought.

There should be no doubt that games are being played right now. Shenanigans, as I like to call them. But it's also true that economic recovery is an unknown entity: we don't know what's going to happen, how robust the recovery is and what the upside may be. That's why the shenanigans work.

Just this morning, new jobless claims came in higher than expected. That's bad news. But stocks are up big. Many of the ongoing conditions of recession are being discounted because it's widely believed that the economy has bottomed. Some believe the recovery that's going on right now will show up as a surprise number for the third quarter GDP.

*****So that suggests that today's poor unemployment number will soon be a stabilizing, or even improving number. Yesterday's bad durable goods number will be the bottom of the cycle…

Is the market being set-up for a massive disappointment? You bet it is. Will that disappointment materialize? I don't know.

That leaves me, and other investors, in a difficult spot. So, I'm going to continue to do what I've been doing - buy quality stocks in the sectors that make sense, watch them like a hawk and take profits. That approach has worked extremely well in all of my advisory letters.

*****I haven't mentioned my Recovery Portfolio lately. I've added a couple stocks over the last few weeks and just closed a covered call trade on Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK). We made 21% and 25% in four months on a very low risk investment. I'm lining up my next covered call trade, to learn more about Recovery Portfolio, click HERE.

*****SCI Daily readers are the best. Your response to the T-shirt contest I announced yesterday to get the word out on my first book, The Small Cap Investor: Secrets to Winning Big with Small Cap Stocks, was outstanding. And I didn't even give you all the details!

First of all, I neglected to include the link to the SmallCapInvestor Facebook page. Click this link to check it out.

I also didn't mention that everyone who submits a T-shirt slogan will get a 30-day, 100% complimentary trial to my SmallCapInvestor PRO advisory service. Or that the winner gets a one-year subscription to ALL of my advisory and trading services ($2,680 value), plus a signed copy of the book and three t-shirts.

And still, you stepped up to help. Thanks again for your overwhelming support.

I will be taking submissions for the T-shirt slogan until August 9, 2009. Submissions can be made at Facebook or via email (tshirt@smallcapinvestor.com). All email submissions will be posted on Facebook and that's where the voting will take place.

*****It's pretty clear now that the trends we've seen emerging from the financial crisis and recovery will be with us for a long time. I'm talking about high unemployment, higher taxes, a weak dollar, restrictive regulations, and potential inflation, just to name a few.

Clearly, these conditions will have a profound effect on your investments in the months and years ahead.

And because many of these conditions are a direct result of government bailouts, I'm calling the condition Managed America.

We've just completed the update to the Predictions 2009 special report (I mentioned it last week, click here if you need a copy). The report does a cursory review of the past few months and the investing strategy that made big gains for Top Stock Insights subscribers.

More importantly however, the report reveals our investing strategies for the remainder of 2009 and beyond, and explores my concept of Managed America and how you can still make profitable investments. The U.S. economy has changed and investors need to understand the changes in order to make the best investments.

To complement the report, I'm hosting a web video conference on Monday, August 10th at 6:00 p.m. to go over the major themes of Managed America and how you'll make profits from this new economic reality.

The event is free, but you do need to register for it. Click here for the free registration page now to make sure you're on the list to attend.

Best Regards,

Ian Wyatt
Editor
SCI Daily

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Alex Alexandrov

Russell 2000 biggest loser

Stocks are in the red following news of a decline in U.S. housing starts for the month of May. At 11:54 a.m. ET the Russell 2000 was down 2.46 points, or 0.29%, to 843.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.95 points, or 0.01%, to 13,611.03.

Alexandria, Minn.-based Rural Cellular Corp. (Nasdaq: RCCC), which provides wireless communications services in rural America, has purchased a high-capacity WAP solution that will allow it to better stream content to users’ handsets. The WAP gateway, produced by Interop Technologies, can deliver customized content with the operator’s brand and increase capacity without disrupting existing service, Rural Cellular reported before market open. The company said that it hopes the acquisition will help it better deliver content such as news, sports and weather.
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Alex Alexandrov

Russell takes a break

The major U.S. indices lost ground today on news the Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation. The Russell 2000 shed 6.82 points, or 0.80%, to finish at 848.27, after four consecutive record closes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 80.86 points, or 0.59%, to 13,595.46.

Shares of Inovio Biomedical Corp. (AMEX: INO) ended the day among the losers following news after the opening bell that the San Diego-based company will stop further patient enrollment in its two Phase III studies of a drug to treat head and neck cancer.
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