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Ian Wyatt

Small Caps Lead Recovery According to Russell Investments

If you had a chance to catch the article on page C5 in yesterday's The Wall Street Journal you probably found affirmation of what you already know about small cap stocks. It seems that Russell Investments (as in the folks from the Russell 2000 index, among others) have recently re-examined the stock market's performance coming out of recessions and they indicate there's strong evidence to suggest that small cap value stocks outperform all other coming up from the bottom.

Recent experience since the market bottom on March 9, 2009 further corroborates this thesis. We've already seen that the majority of gainers on any particular day have been small caps. Just look at some of the big gainers from just this past week: MAP Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MAPP), SYMS Corp. (Nasdaq:SYMS), AgFeed Industries (Nasdaq:FEED), Central Jersey Bancorp (Nasdaq:CJBK), FreeSeas, Inc. (Nasdaq:FREE), Exelixis (Nasdaq:EXEL) and Dynacq Healthcare (Nasdaq:DYII), just to name a few.

And recently an analyst from Morningstar, Bradley Kay, looked back even further to 1931 and noticed that there was a big performance difference between large cap and small cap stocks during recessions and recoveries. He further stated, "small cap stocks very much lead out of a recession."

This was my strategy in 2001 through 2003 when I started my first small cap service, Growth Report, and continues to be my focus with my SmallCapInvestor PRO service (you can get more information HERE) as we've already put in 12 out of 13 winners for the year.

The time is now to load up on small cap stocks.

In today's trading news, as of 12:00 p.m. Eastern today, the DJIA and Nasdaq are posting minor losses while the S&P 500 is just barely above even from the opening bell.

Russell 2000 Index stocks are up 0.02% at 492.32, a 43.4% increase since the March 9, 2009 lows.

Small caps leading the market today include Green Plains Renewable Energy (Nasdaq:GPRE) up 30.6% in today's trading, Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq:PNSN) up 16.5%, and J Crew Group (NYSE:JCG) up 23.9% on beating analysts' Q1 EPS expectations: JCG reported earnings per share of $0.32 while analysts called for $0.10. Analysts are now revising their full-year 2010 EPS estimate to $1.15 versus an earlier estimate of $0.54.

*****The high close for the Nasdaq since the rally began was 1,763. Yesterday's close was 1,751. For the S&P 500, the high close was 929 and it closed at 906 yesterday.

I mention these levels because they are what traders are watching. Some believe that, since the indices haven't taken out prior highs, the recovery rally is overdone and that a sharp sell-off is coming. Others say the recession is ending, the economy is improving, and there's more upside coming. To them, any weakness in stock prices is consolidation for the next move higher.

It should be remembered that the Nasdaq is still around 800 points, or 32% of its 2008 highs. The S&P 500 is 660 points, or 42% off its 2008 highs. So it's not like the indices are anywhere near prior levels. Who's to say what should be a decent target for a recovering stock market?

*****We can always check price-to-earnings ratios. (I'll use numbers from the Wall St. Journal's Market Data Center. This is one of my secret weapons, but, since I'm here to help, I'll share the link so you can bookmark it --  http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html#calandeco )

For the S&P 500, the trailing P/E is 15, and the forward number, based on estimates, is 15.75. For the Nasdaq, the trailing P/E is 13 and the forward number is 18.

Neither index seems extended on a price-to-earnings basis.

Oil hit a new high at $65, and inventories in the U.S. have dropped 3 weeks running. Traders believe increased demand as a result of increased economic activity is coming sooner rather than later. And bond prices have been falling, which is what you expect to see when stocks offer a more attractive risk/reward scenario.

Of course, one could also say prices fall when traders know there is a virtually unlimited supply of Treasuries hitting the market as the government needs to raise a lot of cash.

But explaining away numbers can be a bad idea. Because when we do that, we're letting our own bias creep in. That's exactly what happened last year when the drumbeat of a coming crisis started. So many pundits explained the numbers away with rosy talk.

*****The unemployment rate is nearly at 9%. Most believe double digits are inevitable. And what's worse, some are saying that high unemployment of 6%-7% may persist for years. But that doesn't necessarily mean that corporate profits will get worse from where they are now. Perhaps the current P/E ratios for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are appropriate. Maybe there's even some upside.

In my opinion, what's worrisome is that the next shoe to drop is still the first shoe - banks. There's no doubt that the rally for financials has come on the government's dime (that would be your tax dollars and debt to be paid by your children and grandchildren, of course). Refinances, mortgage and consumer debt modifications, investment gains from TARP money - these are all one-off windfalls. They blew in, and they will very likely blow right back out. What then?

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) currently has a forward P/E of 10. Compound annual growth for the next 5 years is 7.6%. BAC also has $225 billion more debt than cash. Quite frankly, I don't see any upside to BAC. And that makes me worry about the downside.

*****As you know, I've pointed out moments where it looked as though stocks were about to head lower with comments like "cracks are showing" or "the news cycle is turning negative." So far, no significant downside has occurred. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't.

Consumer confidence has been steadily rising, and stock prices show it. We're also moving into the summer months, which are traditionally the worst months for stocks. 

For now, the best advice is an observation - a trend is in place until it turns. There's no reason to simply sell or take downside positions now. But keep your eye in things, apply stop losses to your positions and we'll see what happens.

If you want to get a clearer idea of what's going to be happening in the markets, be sure to check out TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl sharing his thoughts on the SPX, which tracks the S&P 500. He's calling for the near term for a bullish trend. You can view the video HERE (no registration or sign up required).

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SCI Microbloggers

Russell closes slightly higher on Thursday's session; PODD, DMND, and BLUD lead gainers

Small-cap stocks pushed higher in a relatively tame session, with morning pressure from concerns about sloppy sales at Wal-Mart countered by optimism for massive infrastructure spending projects in the months ahead. Perhaps the story lines simply balanced out each other, or perhaps the market was taking a little “breather” ahead of Friday’s big jobs report. Some of today’s small-cap gainers are Insulet Corporation (Nasdaq:PODD), Diamond Foods Inc. (Nasdaq:DMND) and Immucor Inc. (Nasdaq:BLUD).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Advancers are leading decliners 1,024 to 764 on the Russell 2000.
• Apparel firms were also under stress, and automakers took a step back today after seeing solid upside moves earlier this week.  
• On the downside, hypermarkets and supermarkets were taking a hit (spurred by the WMT news).  
• Other areas showing strength included home entertainment software, coal, health care facilities, oil refiners, metal and mining stocks and construction firms.

Small Cap Gainers:

• Medical device maker Insulet Corporation is up 12.3% to $9.77 after an upgrade by Canaccord Adams. (See Nasdaq:PODD)  
• Snack company Diamond Foods Inc. is up 9.8% to $20.42 after an upgrade by BMO Capital Markets. (See Nasdaq:DMND)  
• Blood-testing equipment maker Immucor Inc. is up 6.8% in pre-market trading to $25.10 after reporting a 7% gain in Q2 profits after the close Wed. (See Nasdaq:BLUD)  
• Shares in Dutch biotechnology firm Crucell were up 6.9% to $21.92 in pre-market trading after news it is in talks with Wyeth.

Small Cap Losers:


• Construction and lifting equipment maker Manitowoc Co. is down 13.2% to $8.25 after narrowing its FY2008 profit estimate toward the low end of previous guidance. (See NYSE:MTW)  
J. Crew Group Inc. is down 17.5% to $9.65 after announcing before the opening that it now expects to report a loss in Q4, versus previous expectations for a profit. (See NYSE:JCG)  
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. was down 22.4% to $6.81 shortly after the opening. (See Nasdaq:ULTA)  
• Restaurant chain Sonic Corp. last night reported a 47.5% drop in profit for Q1. Shares are down 10.4% to $10.22 in pre-market trading. (See Nasdaq:SONC)
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SCI Microbloggers

Small-cap stocks keep it steady into midday; PODD, DMND, and BLUD lead gainers

Small-cap stocks hovered near steady levels into mid-session trading, up from the morning lows amid optimism over the fiscal stimulus plans that were put into greater detail today by President-elect Obama. The stimulus cheer helped offset gloom over sloppy retail sales from discount giant Wal-Mart, which put an early pall on the morning activity. Some of today’s small-cap gainers are Insulet Corporation (Nasdaq:PODD), Diamond Foods Inc. (Nasdaq:DMND) and Immucor Inc. (Nasdaq:BLUD).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Advancers are leading decliners 1,024 to 764 on the Russell 2000.
• Apparel firms were also under stress, and automakers took a step back today after seeing solid upside moves earlier this week.  
• On the downside, hypermarkets and supermarkets were taking a hit (spurred by the WMT news).  
• Other areas showing strength included home entertainment software, coal, health care facilities, oil refiners, metal and mining stocks and construction firms.

Small Cap Gainers:

• Medical device maker Insulet Corporation is up 12.3% to $9.77 after an upgrade by Canaccord Adams. (See Nasdaq:PODD)  
• Snack company Diamond Foods Inc. is up 9.8% to $20.42 after an upgrade by BMO Capital Markets. (See Nasdaq:DMND)  
• Blood-testing equipment maker Immucor Inc. is up 6.8% in pre-market trading to $25.10 after reporting a 7% gain in Q2 profits after the close Wed. (See Nasdaq:BLUD)  
• Shares in Dutch biotechnology firm Crucell were up 6.9% to $21.92 in pre-market trading after news it is in talks with Wyeth.

Small Cap Losers:


• Construction and lifting equipment maker Manitowoc Co. is down 13.2% to $8.25 after narrowing its FY2008 profit estimate toward the low end of previous guidance. (See NYSE:MTW)  
J. Crew Group Inc. is down 17.5% to $9.65 after announcing before the opening that it now expects to report a loss in Q4, versus previous expectations for a profit. (See NYSE:JCG)  
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. was down 22.4% to $6.81 shortly after the opening. (See Nasdaq:ULTA)  
• Restaurant chain Sonic Corp. last night reported a 47.5% drop in profit for Q1. Shares are down 10.4% to $10.22 in pre-market trading. (See Nasdaq:SONC)
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SCI Microbloggers

Russell opens low Thursday morning; PODD, DMND, and BLUD lead gainers

Small-cap stocks pushed lower this morning, pulled down by renewed worries about consumer spending after the world’s largest retailer posted disappointing December sales. In addition, tech stocks and commodities were on the defensive this morning following losses in overseas trading.  Some of today’s small-cap gainers are Insulet Corporation (Nasdaq:PODD), Diamond Foods Inc. (Nasdaq:DMND) and Immucor Inc. (Nasdaq:BLUD).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Tech stocks and commodities were on the defensive this morning following losses in overseas trading.  
• Small-cap stocks pushed lower this morning, pulled down by renewed worries about consumer spending after the world’s largest retailer posted disappointing December sales.  
• The Dow was expected to open down 90 points, while the Russell 2000 was seen down 0.7%, near 493.50.  
• Crude oil stabilized after Wednesday’s 12% hit, but other commodities were down, which could weigh on companies involved in mining and other raw goods businesses.

Small Cap Gainers:


• Medical device maker Insulet Corporation is up 12.3% to $9.77 after an upgrade by Canaccord Adams. (See Nasdaq:
PODD)  
• Snack company Diamond Foods Inc. is up 9.8% to $20.42 after an upgrade by BMO Capital Markets. (See Nasdaq:DMND)  
• Blood-testing equipment maker Immucor Inc. is up 6.8% in pre-market trading to $25.10 after reporting a 7% gain in Q2 profits after the close Wed. (See Nasdaq:BLUD)  
• Shares in Dutch biotechnology firm Crucell were up 6.9% to $21.92 in pre-market trading after news it is in talks with Wyeth.

Small Cap Losers:


• Construction and lifting equipment maker Manitowoc Co. is down 13.2% to $8.25 after narrowing its FY2008 profit estimate toward the low end of previous guidance. (See NYSE:MTW)  
J. Crew Group Inc. is down 17.5% to $9.65 after announcing before the opening that it now expects to report a loss in Q4, versus previous expectations for a profit. (See NYSE:JCG)  
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. was down 22.4% to $6.81 shortly after the opening. (See Nasdaq:ULTA)  
• Restaurant chain Sonic Corp. last night reported a 47.5% drop in profit for Q1. Shares are down 10.4% to $10.22 in pre-market trading. (See Nasdaq:SONC)

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SCI Microbloggers

Russell takes flight; ATPG, OEH, and AXL lead gainers

Small-cap stocks took flight into mid-session trading, outperforming large caps as investors appeared more confident in looking for “riskier” fare following three days of rallies – at least on the stock market side of things. Some of today’s small-cap gainers are ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (Nasdaq:ATPG), Orient Express Hotels Ltd. (NYSE:OEH) and American Axle & Manufacturing. (NYSE:AXL).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Tire and rubber, coal, homebuilding, metal and mining and even hotel stocks were attracting buyers so far today.   Nov 26, 2008 12:58pm
• Office electronics were up, and so were construction-themed companies.   Nov 26, 2008 12:58pm
• Looking at sector activity, automobile manufacturers were on a roll today, with General Motors Corp. up 31%.   Nov 26, 2008 12:57pm
• The market seemed willing to cast aside a batch of mostly awful economic data from this morning as no surprise.

Small Cap Gainers:

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation jumped 30% as the offshore oil and gas firm tried to mount a lasting rally after setting long-term lows last week. See (Nasdaq:ATPG).
Orient Express Hotels Ltd. rallied 27% as the luxury hotelier and travel company appeared to attract bargain hunters in the hotel group. See (NYSE:OEH).  
American Axle & Manufacturing up 24% after declaring a Q4 dividend earlier this week. See (NYSE:AXL).  
SeaChange International Inc. is up 23% as the video-on-demand software firm benefited from an earnings-related boost. See (Nasdaq:SEAC).

Small Cap Losers:


Safe Bulkers drops another 15% today on light volume. See (NYSE:SB).  
Arbor Realty Trust down 15% on lower-than-average volume, hovering above a 52-week low of $1.77. See (NYSE:ABR). 
Signet Jewelers reports disappointing Q3 09 results; shares dive 11%. See (NYSE:SIG).  
J. Crew Group shares fall 7% on weak outlook. See (NYSE:JCG).  
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Claire Caldwell

Andersons, CNB Financial and Blue Coat Systems lead small-cap percentage losers

Andersons Inc. (Nasdaq:ANDE), CNB Financial Corp.  (Nasdaq:CCNE) and Blue Coat Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:BCSI) are among the biggest percentage losers in Wednesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Signet Jewelers  (Nasdaq:SIG), J Crew Group Inc. (Nasdaq:JCG), Thomas & Betts Corp. (Nasdaq:TNB), Elbit Imaging Ltd. (Nasdaq:EMITF), Capitol Bancorp Ltd. (Nasdaq:CBC) and Encore Bancshares Inc. (Nasdaq:EBTX).
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Kevin Pendley

Small caps retreat on sloppy econ data, lower profit forecasts

Small-cap stocks took a dive on the opening as the optimism that drove a sterling three-day rally abated amid a backlash from sobering economic data and a fresh batch of downbeat corporate forecasts. However, tech stocks were surprisingly firm today, which helped the overall market bounce off the morning lows. At 10:02 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 3.44, or 0.78%, at 439.74.

Market watchers were hip deep in data overload this morning as various government and private offices release reports early ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the United States. Amid this smorgasbord of information, the headliner appeared to be durable goods report, which showed a jolting decline of 6.2%, the largest drop in more than two years and well beyond the consensus forecast for a drop of 2.7%. The durables data base can be a little volatile, especially with huge orders for aircraft involved, but in this report orders for almost every category were down, and orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft were off 4%. Shipments of finished goods were also down, which is a troubling sign for U.S. manufacturers and their likely hiring plans.

Another gloomy report on manufacturing came from today’s Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Survey, which was at 33.8, well below the 38 forecast and at the lowest point in 26 years. Meanwhile, new home sales were at an annualized rate of 433,000 units, down from the forecast of 440,000. The Michigan sentiment survey came in at 55.3, which was below the projection of 57.9 and at the lowest point since 1980.

Speaking of hiring (or the lack thereof), the weekly claims report came in at 529,000, which was in line with the forecast of 530,000. Even though the number of people filing for unemployment insurance fell 14,000 from last week, it should be noted . . .
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Wyatt Research Staff

USG, Live Nation and Veeco Instruments among 52-week lows

USG Corp. (Nasdaq:USG), Live Nation Inc. (Nasdaq:LYV) and Veeco Instruments Inc. (Nasdaq:VECO) are among the  among 52-week lows in Wednesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $1 billion.

Also included among the results: Hadera Paper Ltd. (Nasdaq:AIP), Crosstex Energy Inc. (Nasdaq:XTXI), Oplink Communications Inc. (Nasdaq:OPLK), Patriot Coal Corp. (Nasdaq:PCX), Rockwood Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq:ROC) and J Crew Group Inc. (Nasdaq:JCG).

Here are the  among 52-week lows among small caps:


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SCI Microbloggers

Small-cap stocks remain down; CNQR, GM, and SOLR lead gainers

What looked like a sleepy, mild opening dip turned into an ugly downside press, with small-cap stocks pulled down this morning by sloppy corporate profit reports, declines in Asian equities and yet another weak tone on the commodities front. Today’s small-cap gainers are Concur Technologies (Nasdaq:CNQR), General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) and GT Solar (Nasdaq:SOLR).

Other Market Watch highlights today included:

• Copper and aluminum prices tumbled to 3-year lows during London’s trading session.  
• There are no economic reports on tap today in the U.S., but banks and government offices are back at work after the Veteran’s Day holiday, which could help volume levels.  
• At 9:54 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 was down 6.28, or 1.30% at 476.00, slipping through intraday chart support along the 480 line.
• What looked in advance like a sleepy, mild opening dip in the Russell 2000 turned into an ugly downside press.

Small Cap Gainers:

Concur Technologies sees 2009 revenue growing 25%; shares climb 12% in pre-market. See (Nasdaq:CNQR).  
• House speaker Nancy Pelosi pushes legislation that would help bail out the embattled U.S. automakers; General Motors Corp. is up 9% on the news. See (NYSE:GM).  
GT Solar appoints Jacobs Engineering Group chairman Noel G. Watson to board of directors; shares tread nearly 4% higher in pre-market. See (Nasdaq:SOLR).  
Nice Systems up 3% in pre-market on a rise in Q3 net profit, revenue. See (Nasdaq:NICE).  


Small Cap Losers:

JA Solar posts loss on Lehman, cuts forecast; shares dive 24% in pre-market. See (Nasdaq:JASO).
J Crew Group Inc. is down 13%, sinking to 52-week lows. See (JCG).  
Canadian Solar downgraded to "hold" from "buy" by Deutsche Securities; shares down 7.6% in pre-market. See (Nasdaq:CSIQ).  
• Sausage and restaurant operator Bob Evans Farms Inc. lowered its outlook and was off about 2.5% in pre-market trading. See (Nasdaq:BOBE).  
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Kevin Pendley

Russell breaches 480 on sloppy profit reports

What looked like a sleepy, mild opening dip turned into an ugly downside press, with small-cap stocks pulled down this morning by sloppy corporate profit reports, declines in Asian equities and yet another weak tone on the commodities front. At 9:54 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 6.28, or 1.30%, at 476.00, slipping through intraday chart support along the 480 line.

Economic news overnight out of Europe was bleak, with eurozone industrial production coming below the forecast and the Bank of England projecting a sharp economic contraction next year. Despite the gloomy news, European shares weren’t taking a big hit, but they weren’t exactly charging higher either and for the most part turned lower ahead of the U.S. open. Asian stocks slipped about 1.4% overnight, including a 3.1% slide in India and a 1.4% slump in Japan.

There are no economic reports on tap today in the United States, but banks and government offices are back at work today after the Veteran’s Day holiday Tuesday, which could help volume levels. The international trade data Thursday morning could spark volatility in foreign exchange markets, but the big data event this week comes with Friday’s retail sales report. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will hold a media briefing this morning to discuss the $700 billion rescue plan, and comments from that press conference could move financial stocks and the market in general. The presser is slated for 10:30 a.m. ET.

Speaking of retail sales, the big drag on market psychology early today came from electronics giant Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:BBY) which dramatically slashed the forecast for 2009, yet another numbing sign that companies are girding for a very difficult consumer spending environment not just now, but for several months to come. BBY shares were off 10% shortly after the open.

Other individual stocks taking a hit from soft earnings/outlooks this morning include Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE:IPI) as the fertilizer firm missed the estimate . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Russell mildly dips on month-end profit-taking

Small-cap stocks edged slightly lower shortly after a brief opening bid, pulled down by profit-taking from short-term traders who caught this week’s surge to the highest prices since January. Still, the market managed to dodge several data landmines this morning, as a batch of economic figures were basically in line with expectations. At 10:03 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 2, or 0.27%, at 743.55.

The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Survey came in at 49.1, which was above the forecast at 48.5. Although the reading was slightly above expectations, it had only a muted impact on stock prices as the number was still below 50 for the fourth consecutive month.

Also, the Michigan sentiment survey came in at 59.8, just slightly above the forecast of 59.5, but still at 28-year lows.

Before the opening, the personal income headline figure and the core PCE deflator both were in line with analyst projections, which supported both stocks and bonds in pre-opening activity. The core PCE is considered to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and the moderation in the number should allay some inflation fears that have stoked up lately.

Tech stocks were expected to get a lift today from positive earnings news from Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL) and Marvell Technology Group (Nasdaq:MRVL), both of which were seeing impressive  percentage gains this morning after topping earnings estimates overnight. In the financial sector, American Insurance Group (NYSE:AIG) was up 3.3% early after Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurer. Although good news dominated the market so far today, there were some sour notes to be found for large caps, including J. Crew Group (NYSE:JCG), which was off about 20% after reducing guidance and being downgraded by Citigroup.

Month-end window dressing could be a factor in the markets again today, and there could also be a push from some fund managers who are under invested . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Rally extension seen after benign income, PCE data

Small-cap stocks are expected to open higher Friday, extending Thursday’s rise to the highest point since January after personal income and inflation data this morning were in line with expectations and in the wake of positive earnings news overnight from a couple of key tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was expected to open about 0.4% higher, which would translate to an opening near 748.

The personal income headline figure hit the forecast at a rise of 0.2% and the core PCE price index, which is said to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, also nailed the forecast with a rise of 0.1%. The immediate reaction in stocks was about a three-handle rise in S&P 500 futures.

Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL) topped the earnings forecast after the close Thursday and shares for the pc maker jumped about 10% overnight, setting the tone for a solid start to the day in the tech sector.

Crude oil was up and down overnight after Thursday’s slide back below $127 dollars a barrel. There is a sense among some traders that news of a sweeping CFTC investigation into energy market trading could help spur an exit of long energy . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Small caps close in the green

Small-cap stocks took flight Thursday, soaring to the highest daily close since Jan. 2, powered by a rally in the downtrodden financial sector and by money flow away from commodities and debt markets into stocks. The latter trends were likely boosted by a tumble in crude oil, which slipped below $127 dollars a barrel, and by a rally in the U.S. dollar, which climbed about 0.8% against both the euro and the yen. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) rose 7.09, or 0.96%, to 745.55, but did slip late off the highs when a test of key resistance near 750 attracted sellers.

Shortly after the regular market close, Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL) reported earnings above the forecast, and the stock climbed about 5% on the immediate response in after-hours trading, which could provide a boost to stocks in general overnight if the buying interest remains in place.

Small-cap stocks assumed a leadership role on the rally Thursday compared with large-cap index products, and have in fact held up better recently even on down days — a possible sign that stocks are not as vulnerable at these levels as was feared.

“Small caps have been outpacing large caps on the open corporate debt market and firm credit conditions,” Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global told SmallCapInvestor.com in an email interview. “Risk-taking has picked up over the past two months given the dynamics in the corporate bond market.” He noted that the rest of the rise versus large caps is more index-related, tied to the underlying stocks in each product.

Kalivas also said that month-end window dressing had a role in the rally today in stocks, with pharmacy and financial shares attracting buyers while energy and commodity markets, which had been the hot zone, were pulled down by profit-taking. What’s more, Kalivas said that small caps have a timing tendency to rally at the turn of the month, and that appeared to be taking place once again.

The Commodity Futures Trading Association today announced a sweeping investigation into crude oil futures trading, and Kalivas said that news could be helping out . . .

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Matt Ragas

Value Find: Eddie Bauer Holdings, Inc.

A new management team with a back-to-basics strategy, coupled with a beaten-down stock price, could make this small cap retail play an attractive medium-term turnaround opportunity.

The past 12 months have been quite a roller coaster ride for shareholders of outdoor casual sportswear and accessories retailer Eddie Bauer Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: EBHI). In February of this year, shareholders of the $209 million market capitalization company rejected a buyout offer at $9.25 a share from two private equity firms. By June, with Eddie Bauer shares touching the $14 level and a newly named CEO at the helm, rejecting this deal looked like a smart move.

However, after weaker-than-expected sales and rising expenses in recent months, Eddie Bauer shares have been punished, wiping away its summer gains and then some. As of this writing, the stock is now trading around the $6 level, near its lowest levels since being spun off in 2005 from its former parent, Spiegel Inc., as part of that company’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

Founded in Seattle, Wash., in 1920, Eddie Bauer has endured a rocky road in recent years, but still retains a solid brand name and retail footprint with 390 apparel and outlet stores throughout the United States and Canada, and a catalog sales and online operation. Revenue for fiscal 2006 topped $1 billion. Veteran retail manager Neil Fiske was named Eddie Bauer’s new CEO in June. Fiske may be unable to turn things around at ailing Eddie Bauer, but he isn’t new to the retail turnaround game. He previously led the successful turnaround of Bath & Body Works, a $2.5 billion in revenue division of Limited Brands, Inc. (NYSE: LTD). Earlier this month, Eddie Bauer also named several other veteran retail executives to fill out its new management team.

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