Small caps step back on economy woes, bleak profit outlook
Small-cap stocks extended the morning rout into midday trading, pulled down by renewed worries about the economy following the worst decline in October retail sales on record, which only heightens fears about consumer spending moving into the key holiday season. At 2:16 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 4.29%, on target for the third-lowest daily close in more than five years and the lowest weekly close since August 2003 despite the dramatic recovery explosion from Thursday.
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Energy and technology stocks were among the dominant drags on the market, with the Energy SPDR off nearly 5% and the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 down about 4.5%. Within the tech arena, anything tied to the cell phone business was getting hammered following Nokia’s warning that sales would fall far below expectations in coming months. Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) was down 12%, Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) was off 8% and QUALCOMM Inc. (Nasdaq:QCOM), the largest mobile phone chip maker, was down 6%. Back on the commodities theme, crude oil prices were down about $1.60 a barrel, as worries about global demand persist. Despite the pullback on energy prices, commodities overall were hanging in there today, with the Commodity Research Bureau Index basically flat at mid-session. In general, commodities are way oversold and the U.S. dollar tone is mixed today (up versus euro, down versus yen). As for retailers, today just isn’t pretty. The S&P Retail Index is down 6% and a host of name-brand companies released earnings today that were either disappointing, or even when solid for the third quarter reflected downward guidance for the coming quarter. Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN) was down 8%, JC Penney Company Inc. (NYSE:JCP) was down 9% and although the pain was intense for apparel oriented retailers, there was plenty of agony to go around; for instance, home improvement retailer . . .
Record retail sales slump, money flow to credit pulls down stocksSmall-cap stocks opened lower, pressured by bleak retail sales data, soft earnings news, a pullback in energy prices, money flow into credit markets and a “breather” mentality after Thursday afternoon’s humongous recovery rally. At 9:57 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 5.85, or 1.19%, at 485.39. Today’s “big event” -- the retail sales report, came in below expectations with a record October drop of 2.8%, far off the projection for a 1.5% decline, but closer to the whisper numbers making the round late this week. Stock index futures were down about 1.5% before the awful retail sales release and they remained down about 1.5% in the 60 minutes following the report, which suggests that other factors were at play. This morning’s Michigan sentiment survey came in at 57.9, which was slightly better than the forecast of 56.5, and which appeared to have little impact on trading. The pullback this morning could simply be the market taking a break after a stunning bullish reversal off bear market lows Thursday. There is also a chance that traders don’t want to be caught short over the weekend just in case the G-20 comes out with some stunning stimulus package. G-20 leaders started an economic summit today in Washington to discuss the ongoing global financial crisis. And while G-20 leaders are in Washington working on ways to fix the world’s financial problems, central bankers are over in Europe, where the latest news overnight is that the eurozone economy slipped into recession for the first time in 15 years. Bernanke said that bank liquidity measures were generating tentative improvements in credit markets and that central banks remain ready to act if needed. His comments came into the teeth of the retail sales release but seemed to have limited initial market reaction. Libor rates edged up again overnight for the second consecutive session, which raises some caution flags among investors about the lending mentality around the world. Within the credit spectrum this morning, money seemed to moving into Treasury products, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes tumbling more than 3%. Since yields move inverse to price the big slide on rates reflects demand for Treasury products. Energy shares were a big positive factor for the market during Thursday’s rally, but were a drag this morning as crude oil prices slipped about $0.70 . . .
Lower open seen after brutal retail sales, Libor bump
Small-cap stocks are expected to open lower in a correction off the big recovery rally from Thursday afternoon. Another rise in Libor rates, a dip in energy prices overnight and a weak retail sales report should counter gains in European and Asian stocks, which spurred a 1% rise in the World Index. Sellers could also be a little reluctant to pull the trigger into a two-day G-20 economic summit starting today in Washington. Stock index futures were down about 1.4% in after-hours trading, which would suggest a Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) open near 484.25.
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Retail sales came in at minus 2.8%, which marked the largest October decline on record (the data series started 16 years ago). The consensus forecast called for a decline of 1.5%, but the “whisper” numbers were steadily getting worse this week, so it’s reasonable to think that a decline of at least 2% was already priced into the market. Investors were able to shrug off Thursday’s jolting weekly unemployment numbers, and there remains a sense from many market watchers that negative economic data right now just isn’t a surprise. Ahead of the retail sales release this morning, there were already headwinds on the individual retailer front. JC Penney Company Inc. (NYSE:JCP) slightly topped the forecast but cautioned that economic conditions will remain difficult well into the New Year. Also, shares of Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE:KSS) and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN) tumbled in extended hours trading Thursday afternoon after the firms reported weak profits and downgraded the outlook. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) beat the . . .
Late slide erases intraday recovery bounce; clouds rate cut glowIn a fitting finish to an exasperating day, small-cap stocks collapsed in the final half-hour of trading as worries about a recession and tight credit lines clouded exuberance tied to a dramatic coordinated global rate cut ahead of this morning’s stock market open. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 12.39, or 2.22%, at 546.57, the lowest daily close since August 2004. It was a turbulent session that saw the market sharply higher ahead of the open, sharply lower shortly after the open, solidly higher in mid-morning, sharply lower at midday, solidly higher with an hour to go, but then finally sinking back into a red sea by the close. For the year, the Russell is now down 28.6%, while the Dow is off 30.2% and the S&P 500 is down 32.9%. At the lows today, the Russell was down 37.1% from the all-time highs. At approximately 7:00 a.m. ET this morning, the Federal Reserve slashed the target rate for fed funds to 1.5% from 2.0%, which marked the lowest level for fed funds since August 2004. At the same time, central bankers in England, Switzerland, Sweden and China also announced rate cuts, resulting in the first concerted international action on weak economic conditions since the 9/11 attacks seven years ago. The market appeared to struggle mightily early today with whether or not the surprise global rate cut move was really enough to unclog credit lines and jolt the economy out of the grip of recession. For most of the day, the answer to those questions appeared to be “no.” However, tech stocks led the way back out of the midday slump, apparently driven by bargain hunting and by ideas that access to cheaper money would help investment in technology companies. The tech-laden Nasdaq 100 gave back a 4% afternoon rally by the close, but still managed to finish flat on the day, bouncing off five-year lows in the process. At the trough today, the Nasdaq 100 was down 42% from record highs, near levels consistent with previous recession . . .
Financial, retail share woes spark small-cap slideSmall-cap stocks took it in the chin Wednesday, with retail stocks and financial shares falling out of favor with investors amid a gloomy economic environment and the ongoing credit crisis. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) lost 5.86, or 0.80%, to 730.71. The S&P Retail Index crumbled nearly 2% to the second-lowest close since late March. Big-name department stores like Dillards (NYSE:DDS), JC Penney (NYSE:JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Kohls (NYSE:KSS), Macy’s (NYSE:M) and Sears (Nasdaq:SRLD) were all deep in the red In the financial arena, the biggest percentage loser of the day was MF Global (NYSE:MF), the giant futures and commodities brokerage firm that was split off from Man Group last year. MF shares collapsed nearly 40%, shrinking its market cap down to about $945 million in the process. MF projected a significant decline in revenue and said it would raise $300 million to repay debt via $150 million in preference shares and another $150 million in convertible senior notes. Although the steep freefall in MF shares was an attention grabber, the bears were active throughout the financial sector. In fact, late in the day seven of the top 10 percentage declines on the Nasdaq were either banks or financial firms. Tuesday’s slide in regional banks remained in play today, with Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq:FITB) sinking nearly 20% after the firm said it would raise at least $2 billion in capital and slash dividends to help overcome credit losses. The Dow slipped to the lowest daily close since mid-March, when the market was grappling with the collapse of Bear Stearns. For the recent move, the Dow peaked earlier than the Russell 2000, hitting a high on May 19 at 13,136. From the May 19 high to today’s low, the Dow is off 8.7%, while the Russell is only down 2.9% over that same time frame (although the Russell is off 4.8% from the early . . .
Small caps flat, dodging data potholesSmall-cap shares were hovering near steady levels in morning activity, absorbing a large batch of data and Fed speak without any major price gyrations. At 10:03 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 0.63, or 0.09%, at 735.43. The Philly Fed survey came in at minus 15.6, which was better than the projection for a decline of 19. That report was on the heels of the Industrial Production release and the NY Manufacturing Survey, providing quite a bit of data this morning on the manufacturing front — none of it all that upbeat. Industrial Production was pegged at minus 0.7%, which was below the forecast for a dip of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the NY Manufacturing data came in at minus 3.23 for May, below the forecast for 0.00. In addition, the Weekly Claims report edged slightly higher to 371,000, which was just above the forecast of 370,000. While investors were busy digesting a glut of morning economic data, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was busy talking about financial institutions and how to better prepare for crisis situations. His basic comments have been stated before, and the market appeared to focus on other factors for early direction. Crude oil prices jumped back higher this morning, and were trading above $125 dollars a barrel. Pump prices around the country have spiked higher this week, which could crimp consumer spending habits. A direct victim of higher gas prices would appear to be retailers, but they have been fairing well of late, with the S&P Retail Index climbing yesterday and on solid footing this morning following better-than-expected . . .
Mild rise on tap despite soft manufacturing, claims dataSmall-cap stocks are expected to open higher Thursday in line with overnight gains in equity index products. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up about 0.2% heading toward the opening, which would translate to about 737.50. Gains in large-cap indices pulled slightly off the overnight highs after manufacturing and jobs data this morning came in soft. The NY Manufacturing Survey was reported about minus 3.23 for May, which was below the consensus of 0.00, while the Weekly Claims report rose to 371,000 for the latest week, just slightly above the forecast of 370,000. The data spree continues this morning, with the release of Industrial Production numbers at 9:15 a.m. ET, and the Philly Fed survey at 10:00 a.m. ET. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is slated to talk about “risk management” at 9:30 a.m. ET. If the market can open higher this morning, it will be a more important show of support than normal, just to help alleviate jitters stirred by Wednessday’s sharp slide off fresh five-month highs. The Russell 2000 formed a bearish pattern on daily charts . . .
Small caps fall againThe Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) fell for the second consecutive day as economic reports and poor earnings made investors bearish. The small-cap index lost 10.87 points, or 1.39%, to 771.60. The Dow shed 120.96 points, or 0.91%, to 13,110.05. On a year-to-date basis, the Russell 2000 has retreated 2.01%, while the Dow has risen 5.09% and the S&P 500 has added 2.44%. The U.S. economy came into focus today when the Labor Department announced before the start of trading that its consumer price index increased 0.3% in October. The result was expected by economists and follows a similar rise in September. Core prices, which exclude the volatile costs of food and energy, added 0.2%, the same as in September. “Despite rising energy prices, inflation appears restrained,” said Arun Raha, vice president of Economic Research and Consulting for the North American operations of reinsurance company Swiss Re, in an email. “Looking ahead, there are two opposing forces at work with respect to inflation—on one hand we have high oil prices that can feed through to the core, and on the other we have weakening economic activity that softens prices.” Consumer prices have advanced 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, while core prices have increased 2.2%. The U.S. Federal Reserve has said that it prefers core prices to stay in the range between 1% and 2%. “The Fed needs to continue keeping a close watch on the situation,” Raha concluded.
Russell 2000 fallsThe Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) is in negative territory on news of somewhat bearish economic reports and poor earnings from major corporations. At 10:18 a.m. ET, the small-cap index was down 4.73 points, or 0.60%, to 777.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) had lost 4.80 points, or 0.04%, to 13,226.21. Consumer prices added 0.3% in October, according to the U.S. Labor Department before the start of trading. The result was expected by economists and mirrors September’s price increase. Core prices, which exclude the volatile costs of food and energy, added 0.2%, the same rise as in September. The numbers tell us that inflation remains broadly in check, despite the recent spike in the price of oil and higher energy costs. However, consumer prices have added 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, while core prices have increased 2.2%. The U.S. Federal Reserve has said that it prefers core prices to stay in the range between 1% and 2%. In other economic news, the labor market unexpectedly softened for the week ended Nov. 10. In a separate report the Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims climbed 20,000 to 339,000, the highest level since April. Economists were expecting a much smaller rise of 3,000 from an upwardly revised level of 319,000 the previous week. Elsewhere, shares of J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (NYSE: JCP) are trading in the red following news that the department store narrowed its third-quarter income and lowered its fourth-quarter outlook.
New record for Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) closed at new record highs on news of better-than-expected U.S. retail sales for June. The small-cap index added 15.21 points, or 1.81%, to a new record close of 855.18. The Dow gained 283.86 points, or 2.09%, to record close of 13,861.73. Both indices previously set records on June 4.
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Stocks took off as if shot out of a cannon today following news that U.S. retailers largely defied pessimistic predictions and posted modest gains in June. Bentonville, Ark.-based giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) led the way, easily outpacing analysts’ projected same-store sales numbers. That’s good news, suggesting that the American consumer is willing to spend despite higher gas prices. Retail sales make up about half of consumer spending, which in turn comprises the bulk of gross domestic product. spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer spacer
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