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Ian Wyatt

Financials JPM, GS, WFC Lead Trading Session

Stocks were up today in reversing the downward trend from the week with leadership from financials and healthcare. Most notably blue chips JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JP), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), and Merck (NYSE:MRK) were up. Rounding out the leaders in financial were Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

The Dow ended the day's trading session up 0.69% to close at 8,555 while the Nasdaq declined 0.02% and the S&P 500 saw gains, closing at 918, up 0.84%.

Small-cap bellwether Russell 2000 Index, representing the 2,000 largest small-cap stocks, closed up 0.36% to 509.

Leading small cap gainers reflected the broader push top leaders in financials including National Penn Bancshares (Nasdaq:NPBC) up 31.4%; American Capital (Nasdaq:ACAS) up 27.1%. Other gainers include Myriad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MYRXV) up 15.7%; Nelnet (NYSE:NNI) up 30.5%; and Talbots (NYSE:TLB) up 16%.

Small-cap decliners were lead by Liz Claiborne (NYSE:LIZ) down 25.9%, on forecasts of larger than expected losses. The company gave no indication for the larger losses other than the message from all apparel companies that consumers are cutting back on what they consider nonessential purchases. Liz Claiborne reported a loss of 37 cents per share in the first quarter, excluding one-time items. Analysts had forecast 33 cent loss per share for the second quarter. No guidance was provided by the company as to what the revised forecast might be. This played into investor concerns as sellers look to unload shares as reflected in higher than normal volume.

In other news concerning Liz Claiborne, the company announced yesterday that it intends to offer $75 million in convertible senior note due 2014. It is the company's intention to use the proceeds to pay down a portion of borrowings under an amended credit facility. 

*****10 banks have paid back $68 billion in TARP loans. Including some smaller banks that have already repaid loans, the total is now over $70 billion. Even though the repaid money was raised from secondary stock offerings, which dilute shareholder value, it's still something of a positive sign, I suppose.

Now, what's going to happen to the money? Will it sit in the TARP fund? Will it be used to back other loans to small businesses?

This is an inflation issue. The money supply has increased by around $1 trillion in the last year (much of the bailout "funds" have been loan and asset guarantees that haven't increased the money supply, yet). It's the Fed's job to contract the money supply to keep price inflation in check.

This is the problem with creating money - you have to be willing to "uncreate" it at some point. With unemployment as high as it is, inflation is not yet a concern. But that will change eventually, and the Fed will have to have the resolve to contract the money supply when the economy starts showing signs of life.

As we've seen in the past, an economy that gets hooked on liquidity is very hard to wean. I personally have my doubts as to whether this Fed will be able to avoid the Greenspan legacy of allowing asset bubbles to form. So we want to be ready to profit form whatever asset bubbles arise in the future.

This is one of the topics we'll be discussing in next Wednesday's Video Conference. It's titled Inflation Busters: Discover the Stocks to Grow and Protect Your Wealth and will air on Wednesday, June 24 at 6:00 P.M. It's free to attend, you can sign up HERE

*****Stocks are trying to put an end to the sell-off that started with Monday's big decline. The S&P 500 is within a few points of its 200-day moving average. It's also less than 20 points from its 50-day moving average.

One of the simplest trend following systems focuses on the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day MA. When the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA, it signals a trend change from bear to bull. When the 50-day MA falls below the 200-day MA, it signals a change from bull to bear.

So, the current trading is very significant to technical traders. The S&P 500 is flirting with a major buy signal. It should be noted that the Nasdaq flashed the moving average crossover buy signal a few days ago. I would view the moving average crossover on the S&P to be confirmation of the Nasdaq signal.

*****Jason Cimpl, technical analyst at TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, isn't waiting. He's expecting a strong bounce and recommended 3 upside positions to his readers yesterday. One of them, the Direxion Technology Bull (NYSE:TYH), is a leveraged ETF that seeks triple the daily gains on the Russell 1000 Technology Index. That trade finished the day with a 3% gain.

Don't forget the new Daily Profit feature - Jason will give us another video chart analysis session tomorrow. In last Friday's edition he pretty much nailed this week's trading so I can't wait to see what he has to say about next week.
 
*****I'm itching to recommend a new stock to Daily Profit readers. We did pretty well with Graham Corp (AMEX:GHM) and Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) earlier in this rally. 

I can't say I feel comfortable recommending Molecular Insight Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq:MIPI), but the story that came out yesterday is pretty darned interesting. The biotech announced that it can both detect and treat prostate cancer with its imaging agent, Trofex. And instead of the usual 5 tests including MRI and ultrasound, Molecular Insight can collect the necessary data for diagnosis within 2 hours of the Trofex injection.

The stock was up 42% to $6.24 yesterday. Of course, like most small biotechs, Molecular Insight is burning through cash like a teenager at the mall. But if this technology is viable, the stock will go a lot higher than $6.24.

Just thought you'd like to know…talk to you tomorrow.

 


 

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Ian Wyatt

FDA Warning on Zicam Pulls Down MTXX Almost 70%

Stocks started positive in morning trading, but quickly gave ground before the noon lunch hour Eastern time and never recovered. The Dow Jones Industrials were down 1.25% to close at 8,504; the Nasdaq closed down 1.11% at 1,796; and the S&P 500 shed 1.27% to end the day at 912.

Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, fared worse, giving up 1.22% to close at 505.

Today's small-cap gainers were lead by STEC Inc (Nasdaq:STEC), a California-based memory chip maker, up 29%. STEC increased its Q2 financial outlook stating that improved sales of its ZeusIOPS solid-state drive product line had caused the company to revision its guidance. STEC now expects adjusted earnings of between 32 and 36 cents per share.

Other small-caps showing leadership include La-Z-Boy, (NYSE:LZB) up 22% on news that it returned to profitability in Q4 and beating analysts' EPS estimates; Merge Healthcare (Nasdaq:MRGE) up 17%; Alvarion (Nasdaq:ALVR) up 16%; and Satyam Computer Services (NYSE:SAY) up 16%.

Small-cap decliners were lead by Matrixx Initiatives (Nasdaq:MTXX) down 70% on receiving a warning from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to discontinue selling it's Zicam product and for consumer to stop using it immediately. The FDA has indicated that there have been 130 reported cases of people losing the sense of smell after using the products. Zicam is a leading product for preventing and minimizing the effects of the common cold when the patient uses the product at the first symptoms of a cold. The FDA action affects only the nasal swabs and gels and does not apply to the tablets or lozenges.

Although Matrixx is on record stating that the product does not cause a loss of smell the company has indicated that it will consider withdrawing the products in questions, which in total account for roughly 40 percent of its sales.

Other small-cap decliners include Myriad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MYRXV) down 32%; Magyar Bancorp (Nasdaq:MGYR) down 34%; A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq:APWR) down 24% on news that first quarter earnings fell by nearly half; and two of yesterday's leaders: Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:JAZZ) down 17% and QEP (Nasdaq:QEPC) down 15%. 

*****Jason Cimpl, technical analyst at TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, called yesterday's 2.5% drop on the S&P 500 to a tee. If you watched the video chart analysis from Jason that I included in Friday's Daily Profit, then you were ready for Monday's sell-off. I hope you were able to profit from it.

And bonus points to Jason for calling the closing level of the S&P within 2 points. I think Jason's video chart analysis will be a welcome addition to Daily Profit. Look for the next one in Friday's edition.

******If it weren't for gasoline, prices at the wholesale level would have fallen 0.1% in May. Still, prices are off 5% from this time last year. That's the biggest drop in 50 years. Is this good news?

Not for corporate profits, and so probably not for valuations. And not for the Fed, who's terrified of deflation. But for the crowd expecting runaway inflation because of a weaker dollar and rising interest rates, it might be.

It should be obvious that weak demand and high unemployment will keep a lid on prices in the short-term. Remember too that it took 18 months before rising oil prices really started to find their way into the prices of consumer goods, too. Right now, inflation expectations are just that - expectations.

Still, those expectations have helped oil and commodity prices run higher…

*****And inflation expectations aren't the only thing driving commodity prices higher. Demand from emerging markets, especially China and India, remains fairly strong. After all, these countries have money to spend to help re-inflate their economies.

Jason Cimpl will be discussing the outlook for inflation and commodity prices in a special video conference next Wednesday, June 24 at 6:00 P.M. It's totally free, and Jason will share his top gold stocks with attendees (yes, we see significant upside for certain gold stocks). This video conference is free of charge, you can sign up HERE.

*****The Ural mountain city of Yekaterinburg, Russia takes center stage in global economic news today. The BRIC countries--Brazil, Russia, India and China--are holding their first ever summit starting today. The U.S. is not invited.

That's because these emerging economic giants want more control over the global economy. And with a combined 42% of global currency reserves, they are in position to throw their weight around a little.

It's no secret that the U.S. depends on these countries to buy our Treasuries and fund our bailout and stimulus plans, not to mention our trade deficit. So the news that these countries will be discussing plans to diversify away from American bonds and buy IMF bonds is important for the U.S. dollar. Just last week Brazil pledged $10 billion purchase IMF bonds. That's a far cry from the day's when Brazil was synonymous with hyper-inflation and a poster child for coming to the developed world hat-in-hand.

But there's more to the story, especially with China. Some estimate that China has as much as $1.3 trillion of foreign reserves, most of it in dollars. And right now, China is putting that money to work stockpiling commodities and supporting its economy. So buying Chinese stocks, especially Chinese commodity stocks, is a great idea right now.

At SmallCapInvestor PRO, we just loaded up on Chinese stocks. I believe this is the one reliable growth story in the world today. I've got a Special Report ready with my top investment recommendations; you can get a copy HERE

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