Tag - Npbc

Stocks were up today in reversing the downward trend from the week with leadership from financials and healthcare. Most notably blue chips JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JP), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), and Merck (NYSE:MRK) were up. Rounding out the leaders in financial were Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

The Dow ended the day's trading session up 0.69% to close at 8,555 while the Nasdaq declined 0.02% and the S&P 500 saw gains, closing at 918, up 0.84%.

Small-cap bellwether Russell 2000 Index, representing the 2,000 largest small-cap stocks, closed up 0.36% to 509.

Leading small cap gainers reflected the broader push top leaders in financials including National Penn Bancshares (Nasdaq:NPBC) up 31.4%; American Capital (Nasdaq:ACAS) up 27.1%. Other gainers include Myriad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MYRXV) up 15.7%; Nelnet (NYSE:NNI) up 30.5%; and Talbots (NYSE:TLB) up 16%.

Small-cap decliners were lead by Liz Claiborne (NYSE:LIZ) down 25.9%, on forecasts of larger than expected losses. The company gave no indication for the larger losses other than the message from all apparel companies that consumers are cutting back on what they consider nonessential purchases. Liz Claiborne reported a loss of 37 cents per share in the first quarter, excluding one-time items. Analysts had forecast 33 cent loss per share for the second quarter. No guidance was provided by the company as to what the revised forecast might be. This played into investor concerns as sellers look to unload shares as reflected in higher than normal volume.

In other news concerning Liz Claiborne, the company announced yesterday that it intends to offer $75 million in convertible senior note due 2014. It is the company's intention to use the proceeds to pay down a portion of borrowings under an amended credit facility. 

*****10 banks have paid back $68 billion in TARP loans. Including some smaller banks that have already repaid loans, the total is now over $70 billion. Even though the repaid money was raised from secondary stock offerings, which dilute shareholder value, it's still something of a positive sign, I suppose.

Now, what's going to happen to the money? Will it sit in the TARP fund? Will it be used to back other loans to small businesses?

This is an inflation issue. The money supply has increased by around $1 trillion in the last year (much of the bailout "funds" have been loan and asset guarantees that haven't increased the money supply, yet). It's the Fed's job to contract the money supply to keep price inflation in check.

This is the problem with creating money - you have to be willing to "uncreate" it at some point. With unemployment as high as it is, inflation is not yet a concern. But that will change eventually, and the Fed will have to have the resolve to contract the money supply when the economy starts showing signs of life.

As we've seen in the past, an economy that gets hooked on liquidity is very hard to wean. I personally have my doubts as to whether this Fed will be able to avoid the Greenspan legacy of allowing asset bubbles to form. So we want to be ready to profit form whatever asset bubbles arise in the future.

This is one of the topics we'll be discussing in next Wednesday's Video Conference. It's titled Inflation Busters: Discover the Stocks to Grow and Protect Your Wealth and will air on Wednesday, June 24 at 6:00 P.M. It's free to attend, you can sign up HERE

*****Stocks are trying to put an end to the sell-off that started with Monday's big decline. The S&P 500 is within a few points of its 200-day moving average. It's also less than 20 points from its 50-day moving average.

One of the simplest trend following systems focuses on the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day MA. When the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA, it signals a trend change from bear to bull. When the 50-day MA falls below the 200-day MA, it signals a change from bull to bear.

So, the current trading is very significant to technical traders. The S&P 500 is flirting with a major buy signal. It should be noted that the Nasdaq flashed the moving average crossover buy signal a few days ago. I would view the moving average crossover on the S&P to be confirmation of the Nasdaq signal.

*****Jason Cimpl, technical analyst at TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, isn't waiting. He's expecting a strong bounce and recommended 3 upside positions to his readers yesterday. One of them, the Direxion Technology Bull (NYSE:TYH), is a leveraged ETF that seeks triple the daily gains on the Russell 1000 Technology Index. That trade finished the day with a 3% gain.

Don't forget the new Daily Profit feature - Jason will give us another video chart analysis session tomorrow. In last Friday's edition he pretty much nailed this week's trading so I can't wait to see what he has to say about next week.
 
*****I'm itching to recommend a new stock to Daily Profit readers. We did pretty well with Graham Corp (AMEX:GHM) and Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) earlier in this rally. 

I can't say I feel comfortable recommending Molecular Insight Pharmaceutical (Nasdaq:MIPI), but the story that came out yesterday is pretty darned interesting. The biotech announced that it can both detect and treat prostate cancer with its imaging agent, Trofex. And instead of the usual 5 tests including MRI and ultrasound, Molecular Insight can collect the necessary data for diagnosis within 2 hours of the Trofex injection.

The stock was up 42% to $6.24 yesterday. Of course, like most small biotechs, Molecular Insight is burning through cash like a teenager at the mall. But if this technology is viable, the stock will go a lot higher than $6.24.

Just thought you'd like to know…talk to you tomorrow.

Early morning weakness in the markets was made up during the afternoon trading hours. The Dow closed just slightly down at 8,497 for a loss of 0.09%. The Nasdaq was up 0.66% for a close of 1,808 and the S&P 500 lost 0.14% to close today at 910.

Small-cap stock investors were rewarded with a 0.65% gain on the Russell 2000 index, a composition of the 2,000 largest small-cap stocks, that closed at 507 today.

Pharma continued it's leadership position in small-caps with Molecular Insight Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MIPI) up 41.3% today as money continues to move into healthcare stocks. Blue Chip pharma stocks followed their upward trajectory, though not nearly as much as small-caps put in, with Abbot Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) up 2.7%, Merck (NYSE:MRK) moved up 1.5%, and Johnson and Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) posted a 1.2% gain.

The other small-cap leader in pharma was Savient (Nasdaq:SVNT) up 35.5% after receiving the recommendation from a panel of arthritis experts who suggested the Food and Drug Administration approved Savient's new gout drug. By a vote of 14 to 1 the panel recommended that the firm's drug, KRYSTEXXA, be granted marketing approval by the FDA. The action date for the FDA's decision is currently set for August 1, 2009.

Other small-cap gainers for today include Alvarion (Nasdaq:ALVR) up 18.3% on news of its $100 million contract with Open Range Communications; Cayman Islands based United America Indemnity (Nasdaq:INDM), a provider of property and casualty insurance products, up 16.4%; and Connecticut based MTM Technologies (Nasdaq:MTM), up 42.8%.

Decliners were lead by Star Scientific (Nasdaq:STSI) which shed 73% off it's opening price to close today at $1.13. Star lost its patent suit against No. 2 cigarette maker RJ Reynolds Tobacco, a unit of Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI). It alleged that RJ Reynolds had infringed in its patents related to the way of growing and treating tobacco plants to prevent nitrosamines from forming. It's believed that in reducing nitrosamines that the cancer-causing agents in tobacco can be significantly reduced. The jury ruled not only that the patents were invalid, but that they should not have been issues. Star said it would seek a new trial or appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals.

Other small-cap decliners were lead by financials including National Penn Bancshares (Nasdaq:NPBC) down 23.2%; First Financial Service Corp. (Nasdaq:FFKY) down 18.5%; and Provident Community Bancshares (Nasdaq:PCBS) down 16.4%. Larger capitalization bank shares were not immune to the sell-off in financials with Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) all declining today.

*****On Monday, an influential bank analyst raised his price target for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) to $19. That implies a 40% jump for BAC. Curiously, this particular analyst didn't cite any improvements to the business or strength in the bank's balance sheet. Rather, he based his analysis on improving investor sentiment.

I don't know about you, but I'm not running out and buying a stock - especially a bank stock - just because investors feel better. No, I'm going to need to see actual evidence that conditions for banks are improving before I wade into those murky waters.

So far, the improvements we've seen in bank fundamentals have been based on accounting changes and government stimulus for the housing market. These measures don't fix the problem; they simply make the symptoms look better.

*****To underscore this point, S&P just cut its ratings on 22 banks because of the potential for further weakening in the sector. The S&P analyst had this to say:

"We believe the banking industry is undergoing a structural transformation that may include radical changes with permanent repercussions…Financial institutions are now shedding balance sheet risk and altering funding profiles and strategies for the marketplace's new reality. Such a transition period justifies lower ratings as industry players implement changes."

Bank of America was not among the banks whose outlook was cut by S&P. And I don't care. So long as the sector is weak and the economy is struggling I'm not going anywhere near banks stocks, improved investor sentiment or not.

*****I know Cold War politics are long over, and that Russia and the U.S. are no longer vying for supremacy, but I still can't help thinking "In your face, Russia" when I read that dollar denominated bonds sold by Russia, China and Brazil performed far better than bonds denominated in those countries own currency.

Russian and Brazilian bonds lost money. China's yuan denominated bonds posted small gains. In every case, dollar denominated bonds made money.

It should be obvious that the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) demand that the world's reserve currency should be manipulated to weaken the influence of the dollar is pure politickin'. Or in the words of a currency strategist quoted by Bloomberg, "It's not up to politicians to determine which currency will be the world reserve currency…In the end the market decides it."

In this case, it should be apparent that the market has spoken.

*****So I won't buy their debt, but I will buy Chinese stocks. Yesterday,   SmallCapInvestor PRO added another Chinese stock to the portfolio. China's one of the few countries in the world that's posting any growth. And investors should absolutely own some Chinese stocks right now. If you want to find out what we're holding in SmallCapInvestor PRO just click HERE.