Tag - Onty

Stocks closed higher today, thus extending July's rally into the new month. Both the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 Index broke through psychological barriers.

The Dow closed up 114.95 points to end the day at 9,286.56; the Nasdaq finished over 2,000 at 2,008.60; and the S&P 500 broke through the thousand barrier to close at 1,002.62.

Stocks on the Russell 2000 moved up with the broader markets to help that bellwether of small-cap stocks end the first trading session of August at 564.19, representing a gain of 1.34% for the day.

Small-cap price leaders for today include Patriot Capital Funding (Nasdaq:PCAP) up 92% on news that Prospect Capital (Nasdaq:PSEC) will buy Patriot for $197 million; Commercial Vehicle Group (Nasdaq:CVGI) up 60%; Transcept Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:TSPT) up 40%; and Oncothyreon (Nasdaq:ONTY) up 41%.

Small-cap price decliners were lead by Huron Consulting Group (Nasdaq:HURN) down 69% breaking news of an ongoing accounting scandal. In a twist of irony the firm that helps clients avoid accounting pitfalls and remain on the right side of the law found itself showing the door to the entire management team as well as announcing it will it would restate financial results for the past three years. The firm is also fighting claims of employee payments viewed as "kickbacks". Huron was promptly downgraded by five research firms.

Other small-cap price decliners include Repros Therapeutics (Nasdaq:RPRX) down 49% on news that development of its uterine fibroids drug, Proellex, had been put on hold due to an increase in liver enzymes in patients; and Savient Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:SVNT) down 18%.

******Stocks closed higher today. Our leading indicator for investor expectations, oil prices, is up over $70 a barrel.

Despite the still-compelling argument that the economy is staging a tepid recovery that will take years to gather steam, and even though many feel that housing prices and unemployment have not yet bottomed, stock prices are clearly showing that investors believe that the financial crisis is past.

Of course, that's the exact opposite of what Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackerman told us Friday. But why fight the trend?

*****I've been looking for a quote from George Soros to share with you, but so far our great search engines Google and Bing have let me down. I'll have to paraphrase, and I'll try not to misrepresent his thoughts. On getting rich in the stock market Soros once said the key is to ride the trend based on false assumptions, and then get out before everyone else realizes it's false.

At first, it sounds silly. How could every trend be based on false assumptions? Surely there must be a solid reason for stock prices move higher, right?

Sure, there's always a good reason for stock prices to move higher when they do. The Internet increased productivity and opened the door for many new and innovative business models.

And the emergence of commodity demand from China coupled with robust consumer demand from Americans drove many assets to all-time highs.

*****But in each case, even though the rallies started on firm footing, they were eventually proved false. The Internet led to a massive misallocation of capital as even the most absurd business model scribbled on a cocktail napkin received start-up money and an IPO. And analysts perpetuated the cycle with fraudulent numbers based on unrealistic assumptions. You'll even recall so many of the "new economy" entrepreneurs claiming that the old rules no longer applied. They did, and in a big way.   

The American consumer demand that supported China's commodity demand was based on unsustainable rising housing values and refinance cash. And of course, Wall Street fraud again made the situation worse.

Investors, from individuals to Wall Street bankers, seem to always take things too far. And while it may not be possible to see in advance the exact moment when investors realize they've been duped, it's a good idea to understand the assumptions that may eventually be proved false.

Of course, it can take a long time. Greenspan's now famous "irrational exuberance" warning came two years before the Internet bubble popped. And the warnings that housing was a bubble likewise went unheeded for years.

*****It seems there's a fair amount of potentially false assumptions driving stocks higher. But we can't know in advance when, and from what level, stock prices may reverse.

We can, however, say confidently that government stimulus is supporting stock prices. And given the essentially endless supply of money that can be thrown into the economy, fighting this uptrend is an uphill battle.

*****Bloomberg reports that Lone Star is in the process of raising $20 billion for a distressed real estate fund. They see value out there in both actual real estate and mortgage backed securities.

This exactly the type of news that the bulls want to see. Asset prices have dropped, but the only way to know if they've dropped far enough is when buyers step in.

Of course, Lone Star could be wrong…just sayin'. 

*****Last week, it was reported that Warren Buffett has a $1 billion paper profit on his investment in Chinese electric car battery company BYD (BYDDF.PK).

At SmallCapInvestor Pro, we've bought into a Chinese battery company too. This one makes batteries for cell phones, not cars. But it fits our thesis of buying Chinese stocks that have ridiculously low valuations.

You'll find this stock in the latest SmallCapInvestor Pro Special Report called Going for Growth: 3 Top Chinese Stocks to Buy NOW. Click here to get your copy.

*****The Managed America web video conference is coming up next Monday, August 10 at 6:00 P.M. It's free to attend and you can register right now. Click here to register for this free online event.

*****Finally, let's have a look ahead at the economic data for this week:

08/04/2009: Pending Homes Sales numbers
08/05/2009: Challenger Jobs Report
08/05/2009: Factory Orders
08/05/2009: ISM Non-manufacturing Index
08/05/2009: weekly oil inventory report
08/06/2009: Chain Store Sales
08/06/2009: New Jobless Claims.

Best Regards,

Ian Wyatt
Editor
SCI Daily

The broad markets were all down today on the negative outlook from the World Bank. The Dow was down 2.35% to close at 8,339; the Nasdaq posted even bigger losses, down 3.35%, closing at 1,766; and the S&P 500 shaved 3.06% off from its open.

The Russell 2000, the widely followed index of the 2,000 largest small cap stocks, was down 3.68% to close at 494.

Fighting the overall downward trend and leading small-caps was Specialty Underwriters' Alliance, Inc. (Nasdaq:SUAI) posting at 56% gain to close at $6.18 on news that it agreed to be purchased by Tower Group (Nasdaq:TWGP) at year end. Specialty Underwriters' offers commercial property and casualty insurance products in the United States. Tower Group was down 4% to close at $23.04.

Other small-caps bucking the selling include Oncothyreon (Nasdaq:ONTY) up 33% on news of testing start for a late-stage study on the breast cancer treatment Stimuvax; MTR Gaming (Nasdaq:MNTG) up 21%; and Security National Financial Corp. (Nasdaq:SNFCA) up 20%.

Leading small-cap decliners today was LodgeNet Interactive (Nasdaq:LNET) posting a 22% loss for the day to close at $3.54. LodgeNet, a provider of Internet and advertising services, announced on Monday that it plans a profit offering of $50 million worth of convertible preferred shares. One half of the proceeds will be used to pay down the outstanding balance on its loan while the remainder will be used as general working capital.

Other small-cap decliners include Rex Energy (Nasdaq:REXX) down 19.5%; Warren Resources (Nasdaq:WRES) down 20%; and China Medical (Nasdaq:CMED) down 19%.

*****Oil is down again. The World Bank has lowered its growth projections for the global economy. In March, the World Bank was calling for a 1.7% contraction in global GDP. Now, it says the global economy will shrink by 2.7%. That's a pretty big revision.

The forecasts for China and India are about the only bright spots.

Traders are taking profits on oil stocks, which suggests they don't see a lot of upside for oil prices right now. Demand is still down, and we're not seeing a runaway economic recovery.

*****Here's your look ahead at the economic data for the week. Tomorrow, June 24, we get existing home sales.

We get new home sales on Wednesday as well as durable goods orders, oil inventories and the Fed will tell us that they aren't changing the overnight lending rate.

Durable goods orders will be a market mover. Last month, you'll recall, the number came in above expectations. Another strong reading would be great, but I have my doubts that it will happen. We should be expecting month to month swings in data like durable goods orders. It seems too early to establish a trend higher.

Thursday, we get initial jobless claims and the final First Quarter GDP number. The initial report is that the economy contracted at a 5.7% annualized rate. There may be an upward revision but I doubt that would be significant. Investors want to believe that the economy bottomed in the First Quarter, so this number gets a pass.

Finally on Friday, we get personal income and spending, the Michigan sentiment review.

*****Jason Cimpl, technical analyst at TradeMaster Daily Stock Alerts, gave us his weekly forecast for the major indices on Friday. If you missed it, here's the LINK. Jason's forecast was near perfect last week. We'll see how he does this week. 

*****We'll be discussing our bullish outlook for commodity stocks in next Wednesday's Video Conference. It's titled Inflation Busters: Discover the Stocks to Grow and Protect Your Wealth and will air on Wednesday, June 24 at 6 pm. It's free to attend, you can sign up HERE.

Stocks are extending losses seen Monday as earnings week kicks off on a low note.

At 11:52 am ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is down 7.3, or 1.63%, at 440.26, while the Dow is down 2.05% at 7,812.73 and the S&P 500 is down 1.75% at 820.82.

Aluminum giant Alcoa will kick off earnings season Tuesday after the close of the market. The company is expected to report a loss and set the tone for dismal results to come. Financial stocks helped push the market lower Monday, and are likely to remain under pressure in the coming days as investors brace for more losses.

But not everyone was in the red today. Small-cap restaurant chain Benihana Inc. (Nasdaq:BNHN) is up 9% after reporting an increase in total and comparable sales for Q4 and full year 2009, while First Niagara Financial Group (Nasdaq:FNFG) is up 13% on news the small cap will buy 57 branches from a unit of PNC Financial. Also rising today is biopharmaceutical company Oncothyreon Inc. (Nasdaq:ONTY), 14% higher on heavier-than-average volume.

******I sure hope SCI Daily readers bought some shares of Graham Corp. (AMEX:GHM) when I suggested it in the March 19 edition. Graham closed at $9.33 that day. Today, it’s pushing $11 a share for a 16% gain.

Graham is exactly the type of stock I love. It’s in an important sector (oil services), it has a pristine balance sheet with virtually no debt, it generates plenty of cash and it has a solid backlog.

Graham is rallying now because it is announcing new orders — $6 million worth in the last week. That may not sound like much, but when you’re doing around $100 million a year, $6 million is significant.

Among other things, Graham helps oil refiners retrofit their equipment so it can handle heavy or “sour” crude, like what comes from oil sands production. Oils sands production is more expensive than the oil we get from OPEC. Oil sands companies are break even with oil in the $50 range.

Graham hit $54 a share when oil prices were hitting their highs. Oil sands production was ramping up and refiners were investing to accommodate that supply. But when oil prices dropped, investors thought Graham’s business would drop. It has, but not as much as expected.

Now that oil prices have found some stability in the $50 range as expectations . . .