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Kevin Pendley

Record continuing claims, weak profits hurt small caps

Small-cap stocks pushed lower to start Thursday’s session, as the latest figures on weekly claims showed record large numbers of U.S. citizens are on unemployment insurance. In addition, earnings news and monthly retailer sales figures are sloppy as expected, adding to the bearish tone. At 10:01 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 4.93, or 1.10%, at 443.55. Although small caps remain above the January lows, the Dow today slipped to the lowest point since the Nov. 21 bottom was carved out.

The weekly claims report rose to a new cycle high, as a sobering number of Americans were forced to file for unemployment benefits last week. The headline figure on claims came out at 626,000, which was way ahead of the projection of 592,000. That figure marked the highest level on weekly claims since 1982. Even more sobering is that the number of people forced to remain on the unemployment rolls climbed to 4.78 million, which is the largest number on record. Although these figures won’t make it into Friday’s big monthly Labor Department jobs report for January, it’s still a troubling sign.

At the same time that the weekly claims report came out, the latest reading on productivity was released, and the number topped the forecast by quite a bit, with productivity coming in at 3.2%, well above the 1.4% projection. The factory orders report at 10:00 a.m. ET came in at minus 3.9% and included a hefty downward revision to last month’s report.

Coming into today’s action, stock markets in Europe and Asia were seeing a mild retreat, with European shares pulled down by losses for insurance companies and consumer products firms. Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest insurer saw double-digit losses in European trading and Warren Buffett invested about $2.6 billion in the firm. The Bank of England trimmed another 50 basis points off their benchmark interest rate, bringing rates down to 1%, the lowest level in more than 300 years for the bank. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to leave their benchmark . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Claims data stunner to pull down Russell on open

Small-cap stocks are expected to open lower, pulled down by a stunning jump in weekly unemployment claims, which jolted investors a day ahead of the monthly employment release. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up about 0.3% before the claims number was released, but now is expected to open down 0.5%, which suggests an open near 715.00.

The weekly claims figure shot to 448,000, which was way above the forecast of 395,000. In fact, it was the largest weekly claims figure in more than five years. The immediate response to the number was a rise in Treasury products, a slide in the U.S. dollar and a whopping 11-handle decline in S&P 500 futures.

At the same time that the weekly claims figure came out, the GDP report also was released. The headline number for GDP came in at 1.9%, which was below the forecast of 2.2%. While GDP also was a disappointment, the fury behind the slide in stocks and the dollar was clearly fueled by the weekly claims shocker.

Crude oil prices stalled overnight, and were down about $0.60 a barrel near $126 heading toward the U.S. open. Energy prices shot $4 dollars a barrel higher Wednesday afternoon on a surprising drop in gasoline stocks seen on the weekly storage data, but that move appears to have lost momentum early today.

There is a potpourri of big-name stocks in the news this morning, with some 40 of the S&P 500 slated to release earnings today. In the financial arena Prudential Financial Inc. (NYSE:PRU) rallied some 5% overnight as losses from subprime . . .

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