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Ian Wyatt

Select Small Caps Buck the Downward Trend

Stocks are trading lower Tuesday afternoon following a disappointing retail sales report and anticipation of upcoming earnings reports that will help provide further insight into the economy’s health.

At 11:42 am ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) is down 8.41, or 1.8%, at 459.64, while the Dow is down 0.84% and the S&P 500 is down 0.88%.

This morning the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 1.1% in March — the biggest decline in three months and a much weaker showing than the 0.3% increase that analysts expected.

Small caps bucking the trend today include Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq:DNDN), up a stunning 135% after its Provenge prostate cancer treatment met its key goal in prolonging survival in men with advanced prostate cancer. Also climbing higher is Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq:PTEC), up 35% after Roth upgraded the small-cap software company to “buy” from “hold.”

******"Given the challenging fundamental backdrop in the global economy, we continue to be cautious about the near-term outlook for our businesses …"

That’s what Goldman Sachs CFO had to say after it posted pretty good earnings numbers on Monday. Of course, no one in the banking sector in his or her right mind is going to say things are great. But numbers are one thing, actions are another.

Goldman earned $1.66 billion in the first quarter, or $3.39 a share. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.64 a share. Goldman essentially blew the numbers out of the water, like Wells Fargo.

But here’s the sticky point: Goldman said it will repay its $10 billion in TARP . . .

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SCI Microbloggers

Russell dives 2.4% at close; AGP, VDSI, and EGBN lead gainers

Small caps dove again at closing, careening 2.4%. Small-cap stocks were especially punished today relative to the broad market and for the first time in months the Dow officially replaced the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) as a better performing index for 2008. Today’s small-cap gainers are Amerigroup (NYSE:AGP), Vasco Data Security (Nasdaq:VDSI) and Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq:EGBN).

Other Market Watch highlights today include:

• The Russell is down 36% for the year, while the Dow is off 34% and the S&P 500 is down 38%.
• It should be noted that the market staged an impressive recovery move off the lows late in the session.
• AIG CEO Edward Liddy said that the $112.8 billion bailout by the government “may not be enough” and the firm may need to tap into additional capital.
• Financial stocks, homebuilders, airlines and retailers took a hit on Thursday.
• The ISE Homebuilders Index was down 9% following a study by RealtyTrac this morning saying that foreclosures were up 21% from September 2007 and up a jarring 71% from the third-quarter of last year. 
• Energy stocks were a source of solid support today for equities, underpinned by a $1-a-barrel bounce in crude oil prices ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna.

Small Cap Gainers:

 Amerigroup up 15% after health insurer reported a 26% increase in Q3 earnings on strong revenues. See (NYSE:AGP). 
• Vasco Data Security International Inc. gapped higher and rallied some 28% as quarterly revenue and income set records for the firm. See (Nasdaq:VDSI).
• Eagle Bancorp posts 17% increase in net, earnings beat sole analyst . . .

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Kevin Pendley

Small caps notch five-year closing low; financials slump

Small-cap stocks remained in a tailspin Thursday, pulled down by sloppy earnings, recession fears, persistent talk of rampant redemptions and sinking financial shares. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 12.05, or 2.40%, at 489.92, which marked the lowest daily close since September 2003. Small-cap stocks were especially punished today relative to the broad market and for the first time in months the Dow officially replaced the Russell 2000 as a better performing index for 2008. The Russell is down 36% for the year, while the Dow is off 34% and the S&P 500 is down 38%. As investors flee equities for cash, their appetite for riskier small-cap fare has fallen off the table amid a mentality that only the biggest and strongest firms are in a position to weather this downturn.

Now that we’ve got all the gloom out of the way, it should be noted that the market staged an impressive recovery move off the lows late in the session. The Dow actually rallied 2% today, and even though the Russell was down more than 2%, it was still more than 4% above the intraday low. More importantly, the strong rally off that intraday low left a potential double bottom on daily charts with the Oct. 10 bear market trough. If the market rallies away from this quickly, then it would provide an important successful test of the lows and would be one of the better bottoming signals we’ve seen on the charts.

Now, back to the sour news from today: American International Group (NYSE:AIG) CEO Edward Liddy said that the $112.8 billion bailout by the government “may not be enough” and the firm may need to tap into additional capital, which sent a collective groan through the financial markets.

The big negative elements in play today were the AIG comments, more talk of forced liquidation amid heavy redemptions, particularly in the leveraged loan market, Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research with MF Global, said in an email interview. Kalivas also noted that commercial paper market was “plugged” and that earnings are lackluster as companies admit business isn’t going to get better any . . .

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SCI Microbloggers

Russell slightly down; VDSI, FFIV, and WVCM lead gainers

Small-cap stocks flashed some surprising upside muscle on the opening, but the initial support from bargain hunting was quickly countered by selling stirred by worries over the sluggish economy, a troubling jobs outlook and sloppy earnings numbers. Today’s small-cap gainers are VASCO Data Security International (Nasdaq:VDSI), F5 Networks (Nasdaq:FFIV) and inSim Technology (Nasdaq:WVCM).

Other Market Watch highlights today include:

• Crude oil prices turned up about $1 a barrel awaiting news from the OPEC meeting, where oil ministers are expected to slash production to offset sinking prices and soft demand.  
• The U.S. dollar was on firm footing this morning, which should continue to exert pressure on many commodities markets.  
• RealtyTrac estimated that 1 in every 475 homes received a foreclosure filing in September.  
• RealtyTrac released a report early this morning saying that foreclosures were up 21% from September 2007 and up a whopping 71% from the third-quarter of last year.
• Most analysts are predicting a sharp rise in unemployment levels in coming months. Greenspan said earlier today that there will be a significant rise in layoffs and unemployment still to come.

Small Cap Gainers:

VASCO Data Security International surges 30% after reporting third-quarter results that topped Wall Street by a large margin. (Nasdaq:VDSI).  
F5 Networks up 12% after fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat the Street. See (Nasdaq:FFIV).  
inSIM Technology said it will ensure reliable cellular connections for machine-to-machine devices in Brazil. See (Nasdaq:WVCM).  
GSI Commerce gains after posting a third-quarter net loss that was narrower than expected. See (Nasdaq:GSIC).  

Small Cap Losers:

Braskem SA tumbled 23% on light volume, as the Brazilian petrochemical company joined other Latin American ADRs in the recent tailspin. See (NYSE:BAK).  
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. gapped lower and was down some 27% as the systems software firm released unimpressive quarterly results. See (Nasdaq:PTEC).  
Exelixis said GlaxoSmithKline will not exercise its option to license XL184, which inhibits tumor growth drivers. See (Nasdaq:EXEL).
• Ticketing company Ticketmaster said it would acquire a controlling equity interest in Front Line Management Group. See (Nasdaq:TKTM).  




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Kevin Pendley

Russell back below 500 as economy, job fears counter bargain hunting

Small-cap stocks flashed some surprising upside muscle on the opening, but the initial support from bargain hunting was quickly countered by selling stirred by worries over the sluggish economy, a troubling jobs outlook and sloppy earnings numbers. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 5.88, or 1.17%, at 496.08, slipping back below the 500 line, which opens the door to further chart-related selling if that mark now becomes resistance.

The weekly unemployment claims report came in above the forecast at 478,000, topping the projection by 13,000. The Labor Department said that claims were boosted some 12,000 by Hurricane Ike and that the number of continuing claims dipped slightly in the latest week. However, weekly claims, the four-week moving average and continuing claims are all hovering near multi-year highs that are consistent with a recession.

Most analysts are predicting a sharp rise in unemployment levels in coming months, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said earlier today that there will be a significant rise in layoffs and unemployment still to come. Greenspan is testifying today before a House oversight committee on the role of regulators. He also said that stabilization in home prices is still far away.

Speaking of the housing issue, RealtyTrac released a report early this morning saying that foreclosures were up 21% from September 2007 and up a whopping 71% from the third quarter of last year. They estimated that 1 in every 475 homes . . .

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Jennifer Allen

Phoenix Technologies: I solemnly swear

There’s no lack of heart or nerve at Phoenix Technologies (Nasdaq:PTEC). The company will tell you exactly where it wants to be and how it will get there: by making its software the soul of next-generation computers.

Phoenix aims to soothe frustrations over slow computer start-up times, short battery life, tedious wireless connections and even more tedious software maintenance. It is fighting malware attacks and smoothing multi-user complications. It is combining the best of Windows and Linux systems and with the best of portable media players, PDAs and smart phones.

That’s its heart. Here’s its nerve: Phoenix pledges average annual revenue growth of 50%, positive operating cash flows of more than 10% of revenues and market capitalization of $1.3 billion by the fiscal end of 2011 in September. By December 2011, annualized revenues will run above $275 million, and net income will be at 15% of revenues.

Gutsy goals for a company that lost $0.63 per share in 2007 and saw revenues fall 22% to $47 million, from $60.5 million in 2006. Phoenix is now valued at $300 million.
But never mind. Phoenix is feeling it. The company started 2008 with revenue guidance of $68 million, raised it to $70 million after the first quarter, raised it again to $74 million at the end of the second quarter and, after exceeding guidance for the third quarter through June, raised it once more to $75.2 million. It expects 2008 non-GAAP earnings of 10% of revenues, or $0.26 per share. 

Cocky? Not really. Phoenix believes in itself and analysts believe in it, too. There are many reasons:  Phoenix’s strong market share in computer systems, the projected expansion in mobile devices and new products that are already gaining . . .
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Dianna Heitz

Phoenix Tech Q3 earnings miss analyst estimates by $0.01 per share; stock down 4% in pre-market

Software developer Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq:PTEC) reported ahead of the opening today an adjusted net profit of $1.3 million, or $0.04 per share, for the third quarter, compared with $0.3 million, or $0.01 a share, for the same quarter a year earlier. Revenues rose 53% to $19.3 million, compared with $12.6 million for the period a year earlier. Analysts had been expecting earnings per share of $0.05 on revenues of $18.3 million for the quarter ended June 30.

In pre-market trading today, shares of Milpitas, Calif.-based Phoenix are down 4% at $11.24. During the past year, shares have ranged from $8.46 to $17.60.

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Will Atkinson

Omnicell, Protherics and The Talbots lead small-cap percentage losers

Omnicell, Inc. (Nasdaq:OMCL), Protherics PLC (Nasdaq:PTIL) and The Talbots, Inc. (NYSE:TLB) are among the biggest percentage losers in Tuesday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $750 million.

VNUS Medical Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:VNUS), Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq:PTEC) and AMCORE Financial, Inc. (Nasdaq:AMFI) are also among the top small-cap percentage losers.

Here are Tuesday's biggest percentage losers among small caps:

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Jim Oberweis

Oberweis on small caps: Now is the time

Jim Oberweis is president and lead portfolio manager of Oberweis Asset Management and president of The Oberweis Funds. Oberweis Asset Management, Inc. is a growth equity investment management firm that manages approximately $1.5 billion in micro, small, and small/mid capitalization growth strategies globally, primarily for institutional investors and its own proprietary mutual fund family. Oberweis is a Chartered Financial Analyst. He earned an MBA with high honors from the University of Chicago and a B.S. in Computer Science from the University of Illinois. 

SmallCapInvestor.com’s Jennifer Schonberger interviewed Oberweis last week about his outlook for small caps and some of his specific small-cap recommendations.

“Valuations have been pushed down to a point where there are above-average opportunities now with our universe of smaller, high-growth companies. Maybe once a decade you see — for whatever reason — uncertainty and fear in the marketplace push valuations down to a point where even a modest improvement in sentiment for an uncertain economic outlook can dramatically shift the momentum of stock prices. The best example I can give you is 1990, where we saw a similar drop in prices. In 1991, we probably saw the biggest rise ever for smaller growth stocks.

“At some point the valuations are so low that the marginal risk associated with negative news is really not that high. The market already expects everything to be terrible. So if everything is terrible, that’s meeting expectations. If things come out to be not as terrible as people expect, prices will go up. We can tell based on the mathematics of valuations that we’re about as low as we’ve ever been in the last decade. [The recession and the bad news] is completely priced in. Despite horrific results for small growth stocks in the past six or seven months I think they’re very well-positioned going forward on a prospective basis.

“I think (first quarter) earnings will be lousy. They’ll probably remain subdued for the rest of the year. When we get into these types of environments, investors don’t tend to look at the next quarter. They’re discounting the possibility of this continuing on for the next several years. As soon as you see the first rays of . . .

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Alex Alexandrov

Small caps declining

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) and the other major U.S. indices are deep in the red amidst recession fears and an interest rate cut.
 
At 10:19 a.m. ET, the small-cap index had fallen 8.88 points, or 1.32%, to 664.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) was down 230.13 points, or 1.90%, to 11,869.17.

Stocks small and large are posting declines due to fears of a U.S. recession and sell-offs on some overseas exchanges.

Increased worries of an economic recession motivated the U.S. Federal Reserve to make an emergency cut in the federal funds rate to 3.50% from 4.25%.

The Fed has not moved to lower its target rate between meetings since September 2001, in the wake of the terrorist attacks. Its next regularly scheduled meeting is on Jan. 29 and 30.

“The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth,” the Fed said in a statement. “While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households.”

The Russell 2000 opened with a large drop, losing more than 3% right of the bat, with the Dow posting a slightly smaller loss. But stocks trimmed those numbers and the roles reversed, the Dow now posting a deeper decline.

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Jennifer Schonberger

Phoenix Technologies raises Q1 guidance

Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: PTEC) said this morning that it expects its first-quarter revenues and cash balances to exceed analyst expectations.

The Milpitas, Calif. provider of core systems firmware said it expects to report revenue for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2007 of between $16.8 million and $17.2 million, above the $16.6 million an analyst polled by Thomson Financial was projecting.

The company said it expects to book end-of-quarter cash and cash-equivalent balances in excess of $70 million, up more than $7.3 million from the level in the same quarter last year.

Phoenix attributed the raised guidance to new long-term volume purchase agreements with key customers such as Samsung, Quanta, Compal, Wistron and Inventec. As a result, the company expects its total backlog at the end of calendar 2007 to exceed $52 million — representing an increase of more than $30 million from 2006.

The company further stated that it anticipates that approximately half of its total backlog will be reflected as revenue during the remainder of fiscal year 2008 and therefore now expects full fiscal year 2008 revenue will be approximately $70 million, or almost 50% above fiscal year 2007.

Shares of Phoenix Technologies (PTEC) were halted in pre-market.

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Alex Alexandrov

Small caps looking bullish

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) futures are higher and the small-cap index will open in positive territory on news of good earnings from major players.

Wall Street is in a bullish mood this morning, following news after the close on Monday that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) saw a sharp increase in third-quarter revenue, easily beating analysts’ projections.

Also contributing is credit card issuer American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), which reported this morning that third-quarter profit rose 10% while revenue added 11%.

Among small-cap companies, Cambridge, Mass.-based Art Technology Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: ARTG) announced quarterly revenue results just a hair above Wall Street’s forecast.

With little on the economic front, earnings news is set to dominate the headlines this morning.

Here are the biggest percentage gainers and losers in pre-market trading among companies with a market cap between $100 million and $750 million:

Biggest percentage gainers:

China GrenTech Corporation Ltd. (GRRF), up 16% on news of a new order.
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (PTEC), up 12% on news of a solid fourth quarter.
China Precision Steel Inc. (CPSL), up 3%.

Biggest percentage losers:

Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. (UCTT), down 8% on news third-quarter profit missed expectations.
LSI Industries Inc. (LYTS), down 7%.
Volterra Semiconductor Corp. (VLTR) down 9% on news of a decline in third-quarter earnings.

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Will Atkinson

Top Thursday small-cap percentage gainers: Avici Systems Inc., AMCON Distributing Co., Core Molding Technologies Inc.

Avici Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: AVCI), AMCON Distributing Co. (AMEX: DIT) and Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (AMEX: CMT) were among the biggest percentage gainers in Thursday's trading among companies with market capitalizations under $500 million.

Here are today's biggest percentage gainers:

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