Tag - Txn

Stocks jumped today after consecutively back to back good reports from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) as well as a surprise from Gannett (NYSE:GCI) that it beat profit estimates by 9 cents, driving shares up 28%.

Good news kept flowing as investors were treated to revisions from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee that the economy will shrink from 1% to 1.5% in 2009 as opposed to its earlier prognostication of 1.3% to 2%. The committee raised its inflation projection for 2010 to a range of 1.2% to 1.8%.

The Dow was up sharply by 256 points to close at 8,616, the highest its been in a month. The Nasdaq closed up 63 points to 1,863 and the S&P 500 roared to 933, up 27 points from yesterday's close at 906.

Small-cap stocks fared well with the Russell 2000 closing at 509, up 15 points. 
 

Today's volume leaders in the small-cap space include yesterday's leader, CIT Group (NYSE:CIT) with over 74 million shares traded, although trading was halted before the close on impending news concerning discussion with the federal government. Other small-cap volume leaders include Huntington Bancshares (Nasdaq:HBAN), and Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq:SIRI).

Small-cap gainers were lead by Targacept (Nasdaq:TRGT) up 137% after news broke that its depression treatment drug candidate, currently called TC-5214, was able to significantly outperform a placebo drug in testing on patients with major depression disorders. The company announced that it expects to start late-stage trials of the drug in Q2 2010 and is in talks with several potential partners to help complete the drug's development.

Other small-cap gainers include a one-time holding with SmallCapInvestor PRO, Brigham Exploration (Nasdaq:BEXP) up 23%; Ferro Corporation (NYSE:FOE) up 35%; and beleaguered newspaper giant Gannett (NYSE:GCI) up 30%.

*****If you've ever wondered what it's like to be Warren Buffett and have more cash than you can spend or invest, just ask China. China just announced that it has over $2 trillion in foreign reserves.  

That is an unbelievable amount of cash to have accumulated. Bloomberg reports that China's reserves doubled in less than 3 years.  

This much money means two things: China can support it's GDP growth as long as it chooses to; and, China will continue to buy Treasuries. 
Sherman Chan, a Moody's economist in Australia said, "China has the strongest prospects out of all major economies, so it is not surprising that hot money is flowing back…China has certainly recovered from the downturn, and it is on a strong footing now." 

That's why we've been loading up on Chinese stocks in SmallCapInvestor Pro. It's not too late to profit from our top Chinese stocks. Click here for details.  

*****Yesterday morning it was Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). Then last night, it was Intel (Nasdaq:INTC). The world's biggest chip maker crushed earnings, but then did the unthinkable and offered a 3rd quarter revenue forecast that is as much as 14% higher than what analysts were expecting.  

Between Goldman and Intel, I'll take Intel. Intel is selling a product. And apparently, consumer demand for Intel's product is stronger than anyone imagined. Sure, much of the strength is coming from Asia (back to my China comment above), but, so what? Revenue is revenue. 

Other semiconductor companies were rallying in after hours, including Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD).   
As for Goldman, I didn't think that stock will stay over $150. Not that it matters. TradeMaster's Jason Cimpl has made money shorting Goldman. But as for me, Goldman is on the "Never Short" list along with Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) and Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL). They may have bad days, their stocks may get a beat-down once in a while, but these are solid companies with a penchant for finding profits no matter what the economy is doing. 

*****Government actions are currently filling in for an actual economy. That's how it is in our new "Managed America." Most expect the heavy hand of government to be temporary, and that Managed America can end sooner than later. We'll see… 

I expect the conditions of Managed America - high unemployment, sluggish growth, more regulations, higher taxes, and inflation to last years instead of months. And I've outlined my expectations for investing under these conditions in my new Special Issue of Top Stock Insights. The article is titled Managed America: The New Economic Reality. It's being released this morning. You can sign up for Top Stock Insights and get my blueprint for profiting in Managed America. Click here for your copy now.  

*****Now, as you know, it's Newsletter Advisors Wednesday. And by coincidence we're going to be speaking with Andy Obermueller about profiting from government-driven investing. It's essentially the flip side of the Managed America. Enjoy.

Best regards,

Ian Wyatt
Chief Investment Strategist
SmallCapInvestor.com

Newsletter Advisors Wednesday

This week's NewsletterAdvisors.com investment expert is Andy Obermueller, Chief Investment Strategist and editor for StreetAuthority's Government-Driven Opportunities.

Andy was a journalist before joining StreetAuthority. He worked for the business desks of the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Star-Ledger, New Jersey's largest paper, before going on to lead business coverage for a Texas daily. Andy briefly left the industry to get an inside look at corporate finance as a commercial lender for Wells Fargo's business banking group. He lives in Austin.

Andy, thanks for joining us today, now let's get started.   

Can you explain your investment process and criteria for investments?

I keep a very close watch on the executive branch of the government, including each cabinet department, as well as Congressional action. This gives me a pretty good sense of what Washington is up to. I study the legislation and regulatory proposals and track all the data I can -- there's a lot of it. I then look at which companies will be affected by government action and what that's likely to mean for them.

For instance, the FDA is part of the Department of Health and Human Services. I have a database of every drug in the approval process. For some giant drugmakers -- a Merck, say, or a Pfizer -- a new drug might not have much impact on the bottom line. But when the government approves a drug for a smaller drugmaker, the effect is huge. Those small drugmakers can be extremely lucrative investments -- all because of a government action.

What do you believe gives the government-driven investment style an edge over other investment styles?

Two words: Billion and trillion. These are the dollar terms of the government programs that the newsletter deals with. The U.S. federal government is gargantuan. It's the most powerful financial force on the planet. Every time a public dollar is spent, a private sector profit is realized. That has enormous implications, especially in light of the bailout, the stimulus bill and the administration's willingness to expand the role and reach of government.

Look, I'm passionate about this topic for one reason: it works. I've personally invested using a number of strategies over the years. Like you, I've tried various combinations of value, income and growth strategies. However, I'm not sure I've ever seen anything with as much potential as the government-driven stocks I'm finding.

What sectors do you think offer the most opportunities to profit from government action today?

I like energy and finance. Mr. Obama's move toward a green-collar economy, that is, merging the environmental movement with the gross domestic product, has far-reaching implications for every industry. And the banking system offers vast possibility: Though most large banks have entered a post-bailout phase, many small and midsize financial institutions are still struggling. They will come back -- they are as vital to the national economy as the large banks are too big to fail -- and their stock will follow suit. These two areas are outstanding for investors seeking large returns over the long term.

Ok, let's look at energy. Tell me about a government-driven stock you've dug up in this area.

Well, everyone knows that clean energy is a major part of the Obama agenda.  He hasn't even been in office a year yet and his green initiatives are already playing out.  On June 28th the House passed the "cap-and-trade" bill - which calls for a dramatic reduction in the amount of CO2 that industry can emit. This is historic.

The problem is, 35% of America's carbon emissions come from coal-fired power plants. Why? Because coal is both abundant and cheap in the U.S. -- we're sitting on enough of the stuff to power every home in America for the next 400 years. And at the same time, these coal plants are simply too expensive to replace. It would take $672 billion and several years.

But 'cap and trade' is a major thorn in the side of coal. The only solution I see is to find a way to burn coal without producing CO2. A handful of companies have actually figured out how to do this. Their method, called oxy-coal, is recognized as being perhaps the most promising environmentally-friendly technology on the planet. My favorite pick in this area is Praxair (NYSE:PX). It owns more than 200 patents related to oxy-coal.

What are your top three stock recommendations, and what attracts you to each?
I like Verenium Corporation (Nasdaq:VRNM). It's a small company that has engineered the leading biofuel process. It can make ethanol using cellulose, which is in all plant material found on earth. The government has put a ceiling on corn-based ethanol while at the same time mandating a +15,900% increase in the production of these "advanced biofuels" by 2022. What sets this company apart is that the government just gave it the nod to build the world's first commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol plant. There's no reason the explosive growth in this biofuel won't be mirrored by Verenium's stock.

Next I like Energy Recovery (Nasdaq:ERII). It makes a device that's critical to the efficiency of large desalinization plants, which are typically owned by governments. Without its equipment, desalinization is cost-prohibitive. ERII has 70% of the worldwide market, which is expected to double in the next ten years as water becomes ever scarcer. This issue is a lot closer to home than most people realize: Water supplies aren't just critical in the Middle East, they're increasingly important in places like California.

Finally, I like several players in the digital medical records space. The stimulus bill provides for $19 billion for these companies to upgrade the way the health-case system stores patient information. Storing these files digitally will improve physician access to information and not only improve the quality of care but reduce its cost, such as by eliminating unnecessary and potentially redundant medical tests. Among my recommendations here is Quadramed (NYSE:QDHC), which helped the Veterans Administration develop its VistA Program, the first and most successful large-scale electronic medical records system.  

Andy, thanks for the insights on how to profit from government spending and for the recommendations you're following. I'm sure readers will want to follow-up on those. This is certainly an exciting time to invest in companies making billions off the federal government.

Andy Obermueller is the Chief Investment Strategist for StreetAuthority's Government-Driven Investing newsletter. Andy invites you to follow his Government-Driven Investing blog, where he publishes his investing insights for free, at http://www.Government-DrivenInvesting.com

Small-cap stocks reversed course Tuesday, unable to sustain upward momentum from Monday’s surge as weakness in financial and homebuilder stocks and numbing results from the Treasury four-week bill auction overwhelmed support from energy and a surprising upside midday spurt on tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 15.67, or 3.25%, at 465.71 and is now down 39% for 2008. For the year, the Dow is now down 34%, while the S&P 500 is down 39%.

It appeared that the afternoon trigger point for the sudden influx of selling in equities was tied to the results for the Treasury four-week bills, which not only came in at 0.000% (yes, zero), but saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.20. In addition, the three-month T-bill traded with a negative yield at times today. The yield on the long bond is nearing 3% once again, which is basically unheard of, and yields for both bonds and benchmark 10-year notes fell hard today as demand ramped up for Treasury products (which tug money flow away from stocks).

“These events in the Treasury market are causing traders to believe that the market lacks liquidity or buying power,” Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research with MF Global, said in an email interview. “Institutions like hedge funds, fund of funds, etc. have to stash money in a T-bill for reasons of risk management – like expected redemptions and this is robbing the market of buying power and generating fear,” he said.

Kalivas said it will be important to see how demand goes for three-year and 10-year note auctions, as weaker results could boost equities by suggesting that the demand for liquidity is more short-term than long-term in nature. “It is one thing to buy up a three-month T-bill, but an aggressive bid on a 10-year note auction would signal long-term pessimism toward the economy and rob stocks of buyers,” he said.

Interestingly, technology stocks consistently outperformed other index products today, even though the session started out with gloomy news on the tech front from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN), which cautioned about the outlook and from Japan’s Sony, which announced massive layoffs numbering some 16,000 . . .

Small-cap stocks were hovering near steady levels into midday trading, drafting off a surprising show of strength in the technology arena and another solid performance from energy and commodity stocks, which helped offset weakness in financial shares. At 12:31 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 0.79, or 0.16%, at 482.17, easily outperforming the large-cap Dow and S&P 500, both of which were in negative territory.

Coming into today’s action, technology stocks were supposed to be a sore spot for investors after Japan’s Sony announced massive layoffs and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN) projected soft forward sales. However, investors once again showed a desire to cast aside bad news as part of a bottoming process that has already been priced into stock market declines this year. Instead of being a weak point, techs were leading the rally today, with the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 Index up 0.8% at mid-session.

Commodity stocks also were a bright spot for small caps so far today. Looking at S&P sector activity, the top performers included aluminum, steel, coal, oil and gas drillers (as well as semiconductors, life insurers and automotive retailers).

Crude oil prices actually slipped slightly into the red following a gloomy report on energy demand, but it didn’t take too much starch out of energy stocks, which were up some 2.7% at midday, among the better overall groups. Physical commodity markets turned up from a morning slide, bolstered by a pullback in the U.S. dollar, which went from a strong rise against the euro to a modest decline by midday.

Despite the resilient tone so far today for small caps, there are some noticeable points of weakness. Among S&P sectors, the poorest performers are real . . .

Small-cap stocks closed lower, pulled down by slumping commodity markets, a cautious tone amid peak earnings season and lagging performance in the tech sector. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed down 16.18, or 2.96%, at 530.65 and is now down 31% for the year. For the first time in many months, the Dow has actually pulled virtually even with the Russell for 2008, while the S&P 500 is off 35%. Just a few weeks ago, the annual performance spread between the Russell and Dow was in double digits on a percentage basis, so the recent collapse in the spread between small- and large-caps reflects an even more aggressive flight out of “riskier” small-cap fare from investors.

If Monday’s big rally was primarily about energy, then today’s slide had a few more tentacles in play, but the main theme in motion was about the economy and whether or not global slowing would continue to get in the way of the stock market.

From a global standpoint, a recession in the United States and a sharp downturn around the world will hurt demand for commodity goods, a theme that played out today … not just in the U.S. market, but around the globe. Perhaps the perfect poster child for that theme today was the copper market, which crumbled to the lowest point since December 2005 and is now off 50% from the spring highs. A big part of that pullback is linked to China, where GDP slipped below double digits this week for the first time in five years. And the whole bearish commodities story surely got an extra kick from a big rally in the U.S. dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollar terms more expensive — and therefore crimps demand for those products. The greenback soared more than 200 basis points, or some 2% against the euro, making not just new highs for the move but also charging to the highest point since February 2007. With the dollar on a rampage and commodities limping on demand fears, crude oil’s rally from Monday was short-lived. Crude oil futures plunged some 4% and quickly . . .

Small-cap stocks gave back a sizable chunk of Monday’s big rally early on today, pressured by concerns that corporate profits are already sloppy and will be further strained by a weak economy going forward. At 9:54 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 8.46, or 1.55%, at 538.37.

With no economic reports on tap today, the market will focus on the wave of quarterly earnings coming in. Although the earnings news has been mixed so far, investors clearly are concerned that even the upside surprises were already tainted by very low projections or will be pinched to perform into what appears to be a difficult 2009.

The lift small caps enjoyed Monday from the energy sector appeared on the wane today, with crude oil prices slipping on concerns about demand. Also, commodities in general were likely to be on the defensive as the U.S. dollar was soaring against the euro, climbing 1.25%, which makes commodities priced in dollar terms more expensive (and less attractive to foreign buyers).

Around the world overnight, stocks were mixed, with Japan up 3.3%, Hong Kong down 1.8%, China off 0.8%, Taiwan up 0.2%, Australia up 3.8%, Singapore down 0.9%, South Korea down 1% and India up 4.5%. Europe was in positive territory on news that France would pour some 10.5 billion euros into the banking arena, but the early slide in the U.S. market pulled down Europe.

Back to the earnings story, the one that really seemed to sum up the market sentiment this morning was Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN). TXN shares were off 9% shortly after the open as the company projected earnings for the upcoming quarter well below the forecast, which reflects the difficult operating environment for tech companies amid a slumping economy. Also in the tech arena, . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open lower, pulled down by a cautious tone amid a sea of earnings releases. Losses should be limited by another dip in Libor rates overnight, which hints at a thaw in frozen lending lines. Stock index futures were down about 1.3% overnight, which suggests an opening for the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) near 540.

Earnings news was all over the board this morning, but investors are concerned that the coming quarters will continue to pinch profits as the economy limps into 2009 and consumers tighten spending.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) to a “sell” rating, which could be a burden to bank and financial stocks this morning. C shares were off about 3% in pre-market trading. Within financials, there were positive stories this morning, including American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), which was up almost 4% after beating the estimate.

Amid the flood of earnings from last night to this morning, it appears the earnings news that has really stuck to the investor psyche came from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN) which warned that fourth-quarter results would miss the forecast. TXN shares were down about 8% in pre-market trading. Also, on the tech front, Sun Microsystems Inc. (Nasdaq:JAVA) was off about 9% in pre-market trading . . .

Small-cap stocks pushed higher Wednesday, recapturing a little more than one-third of Tuesday’s massive decline as technology stocks and commodity shares were back in favor with investors and distressed financial issues stabilized. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) closed up 9.87, or 1.40%, at 717.16 and is now down 6.3% for the year. Meanwhile, the Dow was up 0.34% Wednesday, but still is off 15% for 2008, while the S&P 500 was up 0.61% on the day, but remains down 16% for the year.

One could argue that stocks were oversold after suffering the largest one-day rout of the year Tuesday, and while that likely played a role in the bounce today, there were also favorable stories to help fuel the move. It seemed like a majority of the earnings reports were either a non-event or slightly upbeat, and decent results from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN) appeared to project an immediate positive tone into the tech arena, which had been struggling of late. TXN gained about 1% on the day, and other tech stocks such as Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq:RIMM), the makers of Blackberry, climbed 6%.

Homebuilders, which were absolutely hammered Tuesday, mounted a recovery bounce today, with the ISE Homebuilders Index rising 3%. DR Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI) was up about 4% and Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) was up some 5%.

Energy shares were higher, even though crude oil prices slipped to fresh five-month lows. In fact, several commodity sectors provided a boost to the stock market, with coal, metals, steel, oil exploration, gas utilities and integrated oil and gas stocks among the best performing sectors. Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) rose 3% and was one of the top lifts on large-cap indices and that strength spilled over into small-cap energy names as well. It was interesting to see that even though commodity stocks were a bullish element today for equities, the overall Commodity Research Bureau Index was actually down about 0.7%. Part of that slide in physical markets was likely tied to a strong tone in the U.S. dollar, which crimps demand for commodities priced in dollar terms. The greenback charged to fresh 11-month highs against the . . .

Small-cap stocks remained higher into mid-session activity Wednesday, buoyed by a firm tone in technology and commodity stocks that helped counter continuing softness in the financial arena. At 12:50 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up 7.97, or 1.13%, at 715.27.

Tech stocks gathered upside momentum following upbeat earnings results from Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN), which spilled over in the chip arena, with QUALCOMM Inc. (Nasdaq:QCOM), rising 3.6% today. Also, Research in Motion Ltd. (Nasdaq:RIMM) rallied 4.3% as the maker of the Blackberry announced a new flip phone. In recent days, there have been concerns voiced that customers are less willing to spend for new technology and the latest high-end tech gadgets, so the improved tone today was a welcome relief — especially after Tuesday’s big stock market rout.

Commodity stocks continue to provide bullish momentum for small-caps today, even though crude oil prices reversed course and headed lower, slipping to fresh five-month lows. Even with crude oil back on the retreat, coal, steel, metals, gas utilities and oil exploration shares were among the best performing sectors on the market so far today. Even with commodities reflecting a better tone today, the U.S. dollar remained on a roll, charging to fresh 11-month highs against the euro, rising about 0.6% in the process. The greenback was also up nearly 1% versus the yen, . . .

Small-cap stocks were expected to open flat to slightly higher Wednesday morning as the market digests Tuesday’s collapse, which registered as the largest one-day downdraft of the year. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was up about 0.2% in after-hours trading, which would suggest an open near 708.60.

Stocks index futures price direction was choppy in after-hours trading with the Dow and S&P 500 slipping into negative territory, then bouncing back after trading higher much of the night. Nasdaq futures were up about 0.5%. Stock markets around the world were mixed to lower overnight, with Japan off 0.4%, Hong Kong down 2.4%, Australia down 1.5%, Singapore down 1.9%, India down 1.6%, China up 0.1%, South Korea up 0.8% and Taiwan up 0.5%.

A big part of the story during Tuesday’s collapse was an unraveling of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LEH), as LEH shares tumbled some 44% and triggered a wave of selling throughout the financial landscape. This morning LEH released earnings, which were awful, but the market was already expecting awful news anyhow. LEH confirmed they were planning to sell off prized assets to raise capital, as the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank posted losses nearing $4 billion for the quarter. LEH shares were turning higher ahead of the open.

Crude oil prices tipped lower, slipping about $0.30 a barrel toward the $103 zone. The market spent much of the overnight session on a mild rally after OPEC surprised the market by voting to cut production 500,000 barrels a day in response to the recent slide in prices. The temporary bump in energy prices helped lift gold off 11-month lows that were set in Asian trading. The U.S. dollar was firm against the euro . . .

Small-cap stocks posted a solid rally Tuesday, bolstered by sinking crude oil prices, a strong dollar and enthusiasm over a steady spate of merger and acquisition activity. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) rose 19.19, or 2.75%, to 716.82, marking the 9th-largest one-day gain of the year.

The recovery bounce in stocks from a morning slide was clearly paced by small caps as the Russell 2000 moved into the green well ahead of its large-cap brethren — and even well before the crude oil collapse gained momentum.

“Crude was helpful to sectors in the market, but today’s action was also dominated by a wave of earnings. The lack of material downside follow through in the financial sector post Wachovia, Keycorp and American Express sparked a bid. The market was able to shrug off the initial bearish news with surprisingly little downside, which is a big positive. In addition, M&A activity is perking up,” said Nick Kalivas, vice president, financial research with MF Global.

Kalivas said that the deal by Brocade Communications Systems (Nasdaq:BRCD) to purchase Foundry Networks Inc. (Nasdaq:FDRY) helped secure a positive tone for the market, particularly in small caps. FDRY gapped higher on huge volume today, and added some 30% to its market cap on the news.

Several airline stocks are in the small- to mid-cap range, and those stocks really took flight today as crude oil tanked. The AMEX Airline Index shot 22% higher today, and small-cap carrier US Airways (NYSE:LCC) jumped a whopping 59% despite reporting huge — but not surprising — quarterly losses. Small-cap firm Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE:ALK) was up 19%, while JetBlue Airways Corp. (Nasdaq:JBLU) rallied 20% and UAL Corp. (Nasdaq:UAUA) gained some 63%.

As for crude oil, the market for black gold went into a tailspin, sinking some 3% to 6-week lows. Clearly, the rise in the U.S. dollar went hand-in-hand with the plunge in crude, but one could argue that the dollar rally also played in a role in pulling down commodity prices across many markets. For instance, corn was down 3%, sugar down 3%, orange juice down 2.7% and even gold reversed overnight gains to . . .

Small-cap stocks pushed lower on the opening, but edged back into the green about 30 minutes after the open as a slide in tech stocks and a turn for the worse for key financial shares was offset by money moving into small-cap commodity and consumer stocks. At 9:52 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 3.43, or 0.49%, at 694.20.

The tech-laden Nasdaq index bore the brunt of early selling interest, fueled by disappointing earnings results from benchmark companies like Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL) and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), which were off 9% and 15% shortly after the open. Also, Vodafone Group (NYSE:VOD) slumped 13% as the mighty European-based mobile phone company lowered its outlook.

Within the financial arena, Wachovia Corp. (NYSE:WB) shed 10% early, snapping a run of positive surprises in the banking sector from recent days. WB, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, posted disappointing earnings, slashed dividends and announced sizable job cuts. Also, American Express (NYSE:AXP) was down 10% after missing the Street’s forecast, which triggered some analyst downgrades and a widening of credit default swap spreads (meaning it costs more to protect debt on the firm).

Comments this morning from Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser had a decidedly hawkish tone and pulled down interest rate futures while supporting the U.S. dollar, but his remarks seemed to have a muted impact on stocks. Plosser said that “we will need to reverse course” on the policy front, and that the inflation picture is getting worse. Plosser is seen as one of the more hawkish members of the Fed and there seems to be a growing divide between policy members lately.

Goldman Sachs analyst Ed McKelvey addressed that very topic in a research report this morning titled “Mixed Messages from the Fed: Listen to Bernanke First.” Goldman’s McKelvey said that not all Fed officials are created equal and that the Bernanke Fed allows more dissent than typical policy boards. More importantly, the . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open sharply lower, pulled down by a spate of disappointing earnings, particularly in the tech sector. In addition, the recent run of bullish surprises on the banking front appears at risk on soft results from Wachovia Corp. (NYSE:WB). The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was off about 0.8% in overnight action, which would suggest an opening near 691.50.

On the tech front, bellwether Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:AAPL) was clobbered overnight, sinking some 9% when the maker of iPods projected forward earnings below the Street forecast. Vodafone Group PLC (NYSE:VOD) tumbled some 14% during European trading as the company lowered its outlook. Also, Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) failed to meet earnings projections and was off some 11% in after-hours trading. Heading into the open, the tech-laden Nasdaq futures market was flirting with 2% losses.

The banking sector has been rejuvenated in recent days by a string of positive earnings surprises, including Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC). However, that momentum should be halted today as shares in Wachovia Corp. (NYSE:WB), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, slumped 6% in overnight trading as the firm’s earnings disappointed and the bank slashed its dividend. Also in the financial sphere, American Express (NYSE:AXP) flirted with double-digit declines overnight after earnings missed . . .

Small-cap shares hovered near steady levels in a relatively calm start to the week, as the market appeared to be waiting for more dramatic news to stir volatility into the mix. For now, investors appear to be juggling concerns about record crude oil prices and top-heavy signals on charts against positive money flow into equities. At 10:03 a.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 1.14, or 0.15%, at 740.04. Small-caps were slightly soft early on compared with large-cap index products, which is a minor cautionary signal.

The Leading Indicators report came in up 0.1% for April, which was slightly better than the forecast, and up from a decline in both March and February. The data had very little immediate impact on trading, as the report is a compilation of “dated” information on the economy.

Crude oil pushed to a fresh record high this morning, and remains a troubling element for the market and the economy in general as consumers are forced to use discretionary money to pay for gasoline at the pump. In Chicago, pump prices have now climbed above $4 dollars a gallon, a prickly price zone right in front of the peak summer driving and holiday season in the United States.

The relatively tame start to the U.S. trading session mirrored overseas markets, which were narrowly mixed. Europe shares were hovering near steady levels into the U.S. open, while Asia stocks posted slight gains and losses depending on the country . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open near steady levels after a fairly uneventful overnight session. Heading into the opening, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was basically unchanged, as were large-cap index products, which would translate to a Russell opening near 741.

Overseas stock markets were mixed, with Europe hovering near steady levels. Shares in Japan were up 0.35%, Hong Kong was up 0.48% and China down 0.56%.

Crude oil remains front and center on trader radar screens to start the week after setting record highs last week, and rallying again overnight.

The economic calendar is fairly tame this week, but the market will get to respond to the Leading Indicators data this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. This report is a compilation of April numbers, so it is somewhat “dated” and typically has a limited impact . . .

Stocks are continuing to crumble midday after crude oil and the greenback hit records. Lackluster outlooks from juggernauts Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) and DuPont (NYSE:DD) also weighed down the market.

At 1:28 p.m. ET, the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) toppled 17.6 points, or 2.45%, to 700.04, while the Dow sunk 137.11 points, or 1.07%, to a level of 12,687.91.

Crude oil climbed to an intraday record of $120 a barrel, as the dollar hit a new low against the euro. The greenback climbed to $1.60 per euro for the first time after the European Central Bank signaled it will not slash interest rates due to inflation concerns Oil also spiked on a Nigerian supply disruption.

“Over the last 24 hours, four ECB speakers state that they’re concerned about inflation — one going as far as to say that they’re considering raising rates every month going forward,” Andy Busch, BMO Capital Markets global ethics strategist said. “This is part of why the U.S. dollar has come under so much pressure from the euro.”

In economic news, the National Association of Realtors said this morning that existing-home sales slid 2% in the month of March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million from a level of 5.03 million in February. The sales number was . . .

Small-cap stocks opened lower, and at 10:01 a.m. ET the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down 9.43, or 1.31%, at 708.57. Small-cap issues paced the early slump in U.S. equities, as the Dow was only off about 0.6%.

The 10:00 a.m. ET release of Existing Home Sales data was on target with analyst forecasts and had very little immediate impact on the market.

The home sales was the first economic release so far this week, and given a dearth of economic data, the market has been focused on the never-ending run of quarterly earnings releases. From afar, the numbers haven’t really looked that great, but soft returns were expected, and so far the market is higher into the initial earnings push.

The latest batch of big-name earnings releases into today’s action served up a mixed bag, with Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) missing the forecast, while DuPont (NYSE:DD) beat the estimate. Texas Instruments was under selling pressure this morning, last down 4% after the chipmaker said the soft economy and sluggish demand for cell phones would hurt second-quarter results. DuPont’s strong earnings were fueled by agriculture products and overseas demand.

Commodity markets appear to be on a modest roll today, which could provide a boost to commodity-linked stocks if the trend remains in play throughout the session. Crude oil made new highs overnight and remains on a bid, lifted by civil unrest in producing state Nigeria, a refinery strike in Scotland and a Japanese tanker hit by rocket fire off the coast of Yemen. Gold and grains are also expected to hit the ground running in U.S. trading action this morning.

Financial shares in Europe were hit hard overnight, with the Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays down in the 4% range as those banks navigate through . . .

Small-cap stocks are expected to open slightly lower Tuesday, in line with mild declines in after-hours trading. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) was down about 0.3% overnight, which would translate to a cash opening near 716. Look for initial support for the Russell this morning at 714, then at 709 and 705. On the upside, resistance remains near 724, then at 731.

The market’s pullback Tuesday was confined to an inside session move, and was consistent with a mild overbought correction. As long as the market doesn’t sink through 709, it won’t endanger the advance from late last week.

Stock indices around the world were narrowly mixed overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei down 1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.8% and Europe markets slightly mixed depending on the nation. The U.S. dollar was flat to soft overnight, crude oil remained bid amid strife in producing country Nigeria, a refinery strike in Scotland . . .

Small-cap stocks charged higher Friday, giving beleaguered bulls a happy weekend sendoff. The Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) rose 13.07, or 1.85% to 721.07, the highest daily close since mid-February as investors embraced the latest batch of earnings numbers with open arms.

In a sense, it was a perfect storm of broad-based earnings reactions Friday, with Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) lifting financials, Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG) fueling technology issues, and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) sparking buying interest in the manufacturing sector.

It perhaps took a little creativity on the part of investors to “spin” the Citigroup story into a positive one, as the company still reported massive debt write-downs and missed the earnings estimate. In essence, investors looked through the headline numbers and decided the story on Citigroup was headed toward happier times.

However, no such rose-colored glasses were needed for Google or Caterpillar. Google shot 20% — or about $90 bucks a share — as earnings topped estimates, and Caterpillar, which climbed about 8%, also beat their forecast despite sluggish economic conditions in the manufacturing sector in recent months. Just to add a little extra good vibes into the mix, another manufacturing giant, Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON) also reported strong earnings and rose nearly 6% on the day.

April options expirations came into play today, and the market appeared to be out of position on the short side, which likely fueled the rally, said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research with MF Global, in a phone interview. In addition, “there . . .

Pericom Semiconductor Corp. (Nasdaq: PSEM)
San Jose, CA
http://www.pericom.com

52-week low / high: $9.42/$19.50
Shares Outstanding: 25.92 million
Market Capitalization: $405.39 million

Successfully sousing itself in the semiconductor business has been a snap for Pericom Semiconductor Corp. (Nasdaq: PSEM).

The small cap makes integrated circuits and frequency control products that are used in everything from digital video for PCs to mobile devices that include cellular, GPS, digital media players, servers and PCs. It is the only manufacturer that addresses the computer expansion card market application need with multiple product functions.

The key to this company, however, is the strength found in its end market and customers. Pericom targets high-growth markets, serving communications, computer and consumer markets. Its top five end customers include Cisco Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), Dell Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL), Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), Samsung and Garmin Ltd. (Nasdaq: GRMN).

The market for which Pericom sells into appears robust. Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN) and LG Electronics recently disclosed reports evidencing strength within the handset market. Laptop sales have been strong at HP and Dell. Additionally, if notebooks sales take off, that could also create sales growth opportunities for Pericom.

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) is higher as investors anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower its target interest rate.
 
At 10:41 a.m. ET, the small-cap index had climbed 1.86 points, or 0.24%, to 793.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) had declined 20.64 points, or 0.15%, to 13,706.39.

Small-cap stocks are posting modest gains as investors focus their attention on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is meeting today to decide on monetary policy. Financial markets have recently taken the view that a 0.25% cut in the federal funds rate, the rate at which commercial banks make overnight loans to each other, is a sure bet.

The target interest rate currently stands at 4.5%. The U.S. central bank will announce its decision at 2:15 p.m. ET.

A cut will help boost the economy, which some economists say could fall into recession due to the ongoing slump in the housing sector and the credit squeeze.

Also helping the bulls are solid earnings news from major players.

Telecommunications giant AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) said that it will buy back up to $15.2 billion of shares. The San Antonia, Texas-based company also said that it expects to see growth in fiscal 2008 earnings.

What’s not to like about a company that makes parts for one of the fastest-growing consumer products in one of the world’s fastest growing markets?

Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: SPRD), a Shanghai company that makes chips for the mobile handset market, is in that enviable position today, amid a surge in demand for both basic low-priced and fancy high-end cell phones.

Last month, IDC reported that worldwide handset shipments in the third quarter of 2007 totaled 289.1 million units, up 9% from the previous quarter and up 13.8% from the year-earlier quarter.

While that robust growth is good news for a long list of mobile chip makers that includes U.S.-based Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN), it is exceptionally good news for Spreadtrum, whose home base of China is not only the world’s largest cell phone market, but, thanks to its low-cost labor, is also the source of more and more of the world’s cell phone production.

Not only does Spreadtrum have the geographic advantage of being close to so many of the companies that buy its chips and the consumers who buy the phones that contain them, but the small cap also pays a lot less for labor than its U.S.-based rivals, meaning it can more easily translate revenues into net income.

When it reported third-quarter results in October, Spectrum showed that all those advantages added up to a very fast growth rate. The company said third-quarter revenues surged 44% to $38.6 million, while net income rose to $6.1 million or $0.13 per share, compared with $3.7 million or $0.11 in the year-ago quarter.

Judging from the growth shown in its core telecom chip product, it appears Spreadtrum’s overall growth could accelerate going forward. The company said that its telecom chip revenues surged 59% in the third quarter, a rise that was offset by a decline in its turnkey solutions division, a business that bundles wireless chips with other cell phone components. Spreadtrum is currently in the process of phasing out that lower-margin, turnkey business.

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) and the Dow (INDU) are in positive territory with less than two hours left in the session. At 2:26 p.m. ET, the small-cap index had moved up 2.92 points, or 0.36%, to 812.68. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 68.85 points, or 0.50%, to 13,835.55.

The bulls are helping stocks to solid gains today following news of good earnings from major players.

The morning began with news that Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), the world’s largest maker of athletic shoes, reported a 51% increase in its fiscal first-quarter profit, besting Wall Street’s projections.

Elsewhere, software maker Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL) also announced better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results, while mobile-phone chip maker Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) increased its dividend and raised its budget for stock buybacks by $5 billion.

Meanwhile, bank holding company HSBC announced this afternoon that it will close its U.S. subprime mortgage business and incur costs of $945 million. The shutting down of Decision One Mortgage will leave 750 employees without a job in the latest sign of the depth of the subprime mortgage market’s troubles. HSBC was one of the largest subprime lenders in the United States.

In commodities news, the price of oil has eased about $0.15 to $81.63 a barrel,as production from the Gulf of Mexico resumes after a storm that caused disruptions.

The Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) and the Dow (INDU) are higher following news of strong quarterly earnings from major players.

At 10:05 a.m. ET, the small-cap index had added 3.43 points, or 0.42%, to 813.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 76.09 points, or 0.55%, to 13,842.79.

Trading got off to a bullish start following news that Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), the world’s largest maker of athletic shoes, reported a 51% increase in its fiscal first-quarter profit, beating Wall Street’s expectations.

The Beaverton, Ore-based company had a net income of $569.7 million, or $1.12 per share, for the quarter ended Aug. 31, compared with $377.2 million, or $0.74 per share, a year earlier. Analysts were looking for earnings of $0.87 per share.

The tech sector added to the positive sentiment.

Redwood City, Calif.-based software maker Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL) also announced better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results, while mobile-phone chip maker Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) increased its dividend and raised its budget for stock buybacks by $5 billion.

Overseas, the major European indices rose, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.6% but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index grew by the same percentage.

In other economic news, investors will be paying attention to the Weekly Leading Index, which will be released by the Economic Cycle Research Institute at 10:30 a.m. ET. The index is considered a leading index of overall economic conditions.